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The UK Ambassador to the US, Peter Mandelson, appears to have changed his tune on Brexit. Having been a vocal supporter of a second referendum, he is now celebrating Brexit as a liberating opportunity in speeches in the US. We can only hope that his conversion is genuine, and that he will be a proselytizing force in Westminster when he returns for Trump’s upcoming state visit.
The French government is bracing itself for widespread strikes on 10 September, as workers across the country prepare to down tools in protest against budget cuts. The strikes will come two days after the Prime Minister is expected to lose a vote of confidence. Economists have warned that France faces a Greek-style debt crisis if it does not act urgently to cut spending.
France faces turmoil
Overshadowed by the resignation of Angela Rayner, the Investment Minister, former tech-entrepreneur Poppy Gustafsson, resigned from government just weeks before a major summit in Birmingham intended to attract foreign investment. She is reportedly exasperated at the slow pace of decision-making and Starmer’s inability to authorise decisive action.
The EU has fined Google €3.5 billion for breaching the bloc’s laws on competition. The tech giant is accused of abusing its dominance of online advertising. In response, Donald Trump has threatened to impose new tariffs on the EU.
Trump sides with Big Tech against the EU
Media
Maurice Cousins on eco-populism
Owen Polley on Prime Minister Nigel Farage
Blog
Telling the public the facts about the Common Understanding by Briefings for Britain
Thomas-Symonds’ speech about the EU Reset last week was anything but honest: he lied about the ECJ’s role in the agreement, blamed business failures on Brexit rather than high energy costs, taxes and interest rates, misled his audience about the real cause of lower UK trade, and overlooked the increased cost to UK businesses of joining the EU’s Emissions Trading Scheme. None of these things will be fixed by the EU’s legal subjugation of the UK in the Reset.
As Wilson predicted, it will be Thomas-Symonds who will be the architect of the decay of UK parliamentary sovereignty, UK industry, UK farming, UK borders, and UK industrial jobs in the Labour-supporting heartlands. But I am sure the urbane Spectator readers sitting in the Library Room of the Unherd Club in Westminster lapped up Thomas-Symonds’ speech without questioning any of it. Labour really has become the party of the lanyard class.
The EU trade deal is a capitulation to America by Thomas Fazi
The punitive conditions (for Europe) of the EU-US trade deal are the ultimate example of the fact that the European Union has delivered a structural subordination to the US unseen in the postwar era.
A rebalancing was indeed long overdue. But this agreement represents the worst possible kind of rebalancing. Instead of using this moment as an opportunity to rethink its fundamentally flawed economic strategy — by raising European wages, boosting internal demand and accepting that exports might become less competitive as a result — the EU has doubled down on the very model that hollowed out its own economic resilience. Rather than shifting towards a healthier, more domestically-driven growth path, Brussels has chosen to preserve its export-led paradigm at all costs — even if that now means exposing Europe’s industrial base to a flood of imports, accelerating deindustrialisation and deepening its dependence on foreign markets.
An open letter to Kemi Badenoch by Brian Morris
Brian Morris urges the leader of the opposition to take a more bullish stand on defence spending and the realities of the Russian threat.
A political space has opened for you, as leader of the opposition, to make a major speech about UK defence. It should not be framed as an attack on Labour. On the contrary, I suggest moderate praise for the role Starmer’s playing in European support for Ukraine. It should offer to back practical and sensible policies from the government to reduce other expenditure. A look at the costs of net zero policies as well as welfare might be timely.
Joining the EU was never a good idea for Britain by Briefings for Britain
In the early 1970s, supporters of the UK joining the EU argued that the UK would reap substantial ‘dynamic’ gains such as improved productivity and competitiveness that would outweigh the acknowledged high static costs of entry.
This obsession with EU alignment exists despite the fact that the EU itself – in sharp contrast to the situation 50 years ago – has an undeniable recent record of weak economic performance both in absolute terms and relative to the other major regions of the world. If pro-Marketeers were hopelessly optimistic in 1973 about the gains from joining the ‘six’, their counterparts today are verging on the delusional.
Headfirst into the jaws of defeat by Catherine McBride
The European Commission has published its demands for the UK’s ‘Reset,’ which are, astonishingly, even more draconian than those announced in May. The EU’s demands effectively push the UK back into the EU’s Customs Union and Single Market, stripping the UK of any ability to adopt the latest farming techniques, protect its farm animals or even import food and other agricultural products from non-EU countries.
The UK government is proposing to give the EU the power to make UK laws and the ability to force the UK to pay the EU for this capitulation. And the amount of the payment will be determined by the EU – our government has written them a blank cheque. Similarly, the EU’s Court of Justice will determine any trade disputes, so the UK government has effectively given the EU a free pass to penalise or, more likely, fine the UK for any transgression. The EU will be the lawmaker, the policeman and the Judge – there will be no jury.
Trumponomics is already working by Robert Lee
According to the critics Trump’s economic policies would cause higher inflation and a recession and eventually a major dollar debt crisis. However, financial markets have remained broadly stable.
My assessment is that Trump’s tariff policy and supply side reforms – with more to come – comprise a credible programme to achieve the stated target of a 2.5 -3.0% sustainable growth over the next ten years. In that case the US Federal Debt to GDP ratio will stabilise and then fall back below the 100% level. Fears of a major US fiscal and economic crisis will fade, and speculation about the demise of global dollar hegemony appear absurd.
Key Points
Keir Starmer’s cabinet reshuffle over the weekend shows a government in crisis. The problems which ministers faced when they entered office have only gotten more acute, and there is no reason to think that a quick game of musical chairs around the cabinet table will make any difference. Meanwhile, at the Reform Party conference, there was evidence that the rapidly-growing party is serious about building a programme for government. If things go on as they are, there is every reason to think that Nigel Farage will replace Keir Starmer as Prime Minister after the next election.
The two most pressing issues for the government are immigration and the economy. Yvette Cooper’s promise to ‘smash the gangs’ has yielded no results, and the much-vaunted returns deal with France has not been put into action, despite being more than a month old. It seems that every week there is a new story related to immigration — be it a hotel protest, allegations of assault, or a legal battle. Shabana Mahmood, the new Home Secretary, is unlikely to fare better. Despite calls from inside his own party, the Prime Minister is as committed as ever to the human rights laws which tie the hands of anyone trying to limit illegal immigration.
Action on immigration might be less urgent were living standards in Britain visibly improving. Instead, taxes have risen as the Chancellor finds it impossible to get control of government spending. In preparation for the budget this autumn, various pro-tax Labour MPs have been moved into Treasury positions. Faced with a choice between cutting spending and raising taxes, the Prime Minister seems set on the latter, having discovered that the latter is almost impossible to get past his own backbenchers when he tried to implement welfare reforms.
As the country gets poorer and voters watch illegal immigration get increasingly out of control, Nigel Farage and the Reform party are getting serious about government. At the party conference, he called on members to be disciplined, focus on local elections next year, and started to unveil a programme for government. Zia Yusuf and Richard Tice seem poised to become, respectively, a Home Secretary and Chancellor in waiting, with the former taking the lead on restricting immigration and the latter talking about getting a grip on government spending. Lee Anderson, meanwhile, has become the party’s welfare spokesperson. This is no longer a one man show — a concerted effort is being made to get Reform ready for government and to show voters that they are a viable option.
The Labour senior leadership are fiddling while Rome burns. After a year in government, they have few achievements they can show to voters. Moving people around the cabinet table is going to make very little difference. Though talk of Starmer not lasting until the next election is probably an exaggeration, prospects of a second term are rapidly vanishing. Having led the polls for months, and with a newfound sense of seriousness, Reform only seem likely to get stronger.
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