The collapse of the French government sparked a wave of bets as to who will replace Prime Minister François Bayrou, who was ousted on Monday in a 364-194 vote.
Why It Matters
The government of Bayrou, appointed to the position by French President Emanuel Macron last December, must now resign after fewer than nine months in office. The collapse has fueled uncertainty at a time when France was already facing fiscal challenges, including a growing budget deficit. The new prime minister will be tasked with addressing those fiscal challenges.
What To Know
Betting odds that Minister of the Armed Forces Sébastien Lecornu would become the new prime minister surged following Bayrou’s ouster on Monday on Polymarket. The online betting market gave him a 31 percent chance of succeeding Bayrou by 5 p.m. ET on Monday—a drop from his 54 percent chance around 3 p.m. ET.
Lecornu, 39, has held several positions throughout Macron’s tenure in office, including Minister for Local Authorities and Minister of the Overseas. He has lasted longer than other ministers who have held office since Macron’s 2017 election and has been a key ally to Macron. He is a member of Macron’s Renaissance Party.
Minister of the Armed Forces Sébastien Lecornu, then overseas minister, speaks during a press conference in Pointe-a-Pitre on November 29, 2021.
Minister of the Armed Forces Sébastien Lecornu, then overseas minister, speaks during a press conference in Pointe-a-Pitre on November 29, 2021.
CHRISTOPHE ARCHAMBAULT/AFP via Getty Images
In an interview with Le Parisien, Lecornu was asked what he would do if he were offered the position, to which he said he is not a candidate.
Minister of Labour, Health, Solidarity and Families Catherine Vautrin followed with about a 9 percent chance, according to Polymarket. She is also a member of the Renaissance Party and previously served as the vice president of the general assembly.
Éric Lombard, in independent, followed in betting odds with an 8.4 percent chance of becoming the prime minister. He has served as the Minister of Economics and Finance since December 2024 and previously served as CEO of the Caisse des dépôts et consignations, a French public financial institution that manages investments.
Xavier Bertrand, president of the regional council of Hauts-de-France, has a 5.1 percent chance. Minister of Justice Gerald Darmanin has about a 4 percent chance of becoming the next prime minister.
What People Are Saying
Nicolas Bonnet, a member of the general assembly from the Green Party, told France 24: “I’m happy that François Bayrou is out. The National Assembly no longer trusted him. But I’m also concerned because we have to build something new, a new government. We have a new prime minister, and firstly, a new budget for next year. It will be quite difficult because we have seen in the past year, this was complicated to make different parties, different groups in the assembly to…build compromise.”
Gabriel Attal, member of the general assembly from the Renaissance Party, on X: “I propose that the President of the Republic appoint a negotiator, establishing from the outset that he will not be Prime Minister. A negotiator tasked with bringing together the political forces represented in the National Assembly to build an agreement in the general interest. This compromise must then enable the appointment of a Prime Minister, who will become the guarantor of this agreement.”
What Happens Next
Macron has stated that he will appoint a new prime minister “in a matter of days,” according to the BBC.