Good afternoon. This is Emilio Casalicchio.
THE WAR KEEPS SPREADING: World leaders are tonight scrambling for information after Israel launched a surprise attack on senior Hamas leaders in Qatar. The IDF confirmed it conducted “a precise strike” at what a Hamas official told broadcasters was its top negotiating team in Doha. The White House said U.S. President Donald Trump was notified about the plans while Middle Eastern nations lined up to condemn the attack. POLITICO has a writeup here and the Beeb is running a liveblog.
It’s a conversation starter: No doubt the bombing of another nation will be on the agenda when Keir Starmer welcomes Israeli President Isaac Herzog to Downing Street tomorrow. Will the PM repeat Wes Streeting and tell Herzog the Israeli government is leading its nation to “pariah status?” Don’t forget Starmer is mulling whether to recognize the state of Palestine at the upcoming UN summit. Downing Street this afternoon condemned the escalation and said it would “risk further destabilization.”
In the meantime: The PM will be meeting NATO boss Mark Rutte in No.10 this evening.
TUESDAY CHEAT SHEET
— Labour figures are eager to see the first nominations data in the deputy leadership race.
— Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson appeared to take an early lead among MPs and members.
— There are now six candidates confirmed in the race and a few dropouts.
— The government said Boris Johnson will be audited as another row swirls around the ex-PM.
— Steve Baker has started selling t-shirts.
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TOP OF THE NEWSLIST
CLICK IT HARDER: Figures across the Labour movement will be furiously refreshing this webpage tonight, desperate to find out how the deputy leadership nominations are falling.
No phones at the dinner table: MP nomination tallies for the six candidates so far will land here around 7 p.m. with fewer than 48 hours to go before the nominations window closes.
In the race so far: The contest has been hotting up through the afternoon, with scorned ex-Cabinet minister Lucy Powell, Local Government Minister Alison McGovern and Liverpool Wavertree MP Paula Barker joining Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson, Foreign Affairs Committee Chair Emily Thornberry and Socialist Campaign Group pick Bell Ribeiro-Addy. Click names for their full pitches.
Scores on the door: Election Maps U.K. has a great spreadsheet tracking the public endorsements each of the candidates has won from colleagues so far. Phillipson is out in front, with expectations among some MPs she will get over the 80 mark tonight.
Worth remembering: Lots of backbenchers rate Phillipson after she engaged with them on planned SEND reforms — in contrast to the approach on the aborted welfare cuts. She also won the tacit support of Cabinet colleague Wes Streeting (little surprise since she’s the No.10 candidate) even though ministers have been told not to get involved.
Is it all over before it’s started? Despite expectations in SW1 that the Labour membership will elect whichever candidate promises to give Keir Starmer the biggest wedgie, LabourList published a poll this afternoon suggesting the opposite. Phillipson led the table with a net score of +39 percent — joint with non-runner Lou Haigh (who endorsed Lucy Powell in an interview with Andrew Marr on LBC this eve). Fellow non-runner Ed Miliband was third most popular on 30 percent, then non-runner Rosena Allin-Khan on 26 percent — the most popular among the London MPs.
Then on to the other actual candidates: Thornberry was next down the line with 20 percent, McGovern (who’s on Newsnight later) had 19 percent, Powell was on 1 percent and Ribeiro-Addy was on 3 percent. LabourList did not ask about Barker, since no-one saw her bid coming.
Usual disclaimer: This is one poll from a sub-group of a sub-group of our great nation (i.e. the kinds of freaks who own political membership cards) and polls have a habit of being wrong. But numbers like these will drive the chatter about the race among the people who matter.
And if we take it at face value … the poll suggests being a fully-fledged member of the Starmer circle and backing all the decisions he’s made in government so far is no barrier to winning an internal Labour election. “Wow,” one Labour MP said when Playbook PM showed them the poll results.
Or to put it another way … it suggests the membership wants a deputy leader who will keep quiet and give “Phase Two” a proper chance, rather than someone who risks destabilizing the government, despite having little real power.
Other explanations: One Labour staffer noted that Phillipson is a “likable, capable northern woman. I think that counts for a lot.” It’s almost as though the big Times interview with glossy photoshoot was no coincidence.
Even more takes: Others noted the clear membership churn since the Jeremy Corbyn era, making the electorate more *ahem* pragmatic. But those on the left were more skeptical, with one person arguing “it’s just a poll of name recognition, and once you exclude those who don’t know you are dealing with small sample sizes.” The same person noted that if No.10 is not treating the contest as a walk in the park, the Phillipson position can’t be all that secure.
The hottest take: A third person said the numbers show even the average Labour member is less engaged in politics than the weirdos in and around parliament, Playbook PM included.
Onto the next bit: Phillipson is also thinking about the next stage of the contest too, praising the “wisdom of the unions” in her TUC speech this afternoon and insisting the government will overturn Lords amendments to the workers’ rights bill “no ifs, no buts.” That bit got a sizable cheer from the room, according to my POLITICO colleague Dan Bloom, who was there. He noted that Phillipson delivered ample content about her working-class background too.
But but but: Even No. 10-allied union chiefs who spoke to Dan want a proper contest (at least two candidates — amid suggestions Phillipson could win this week if no rival gets enough nominations) and someone who can speak truth to Starmer. “We’re not looking for Keir mark two,” said one. The 11 affiliated union leaders are being love-bombed by hopefuls. Due to the short timelines, most won’t have time to canvas their full membership on who to back.
Not standing: Former Cabinet Minister Anneliese Dodds and 2024 MP Sarah Owen ruled themselves out of the race. Veterans Minister Al Carns had been calling around colleagues for nominations too but has since given up. Nothing from fellow phone-hitter Kim Leadbeater so far.
The other big next thing … aside from the nomination tallies tonight and tomorrow, is the hustings. But in a proper no-fun move, the bloodletting polite debate will happen in private and online at 8 p.m. tomorrow evening. Times Radio hack Carole Walker heard the move to host the debate on the internet had raised the hackles of some MPs.
The thing no-one is listening to: Meanwhile the work of government appears to continue, with Starmer meeting his not-so-new look Cabinet this morning. He said the government needs to “go up a gear” — although his spokesperson refused to agree with reporters that the wording sounds like an admission the administration has been operating in second gear or worse.
DRIVETIME DEBRIEF
WATCHDOGS GONNA WATCH: Boris Johnson’s use of public funds will face a full audit, the government confirmed, amid questions over whether he has been misusing them for his commercial endeavors. The Guardian revealed evidence suggesting the ex-PM has been claiming public duties allowances for private interests, while fellow former PM Gordon Brown said the rules should be changed to force ex-PMs to publish their business interests.
Good luck with that: The Lib Dems are calling on Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch to condemn Johnson and rule him out of standing in a future leadership election — which is not up to her.
What Old Bozza wanted to talk about: Calling for the so-called Coalition of the Willing to begin operations in Ukraine now, as the Nightly reported.
All of which should serve as a reminder … to those Conservatives who pine to have Johnson back as their leader that his messages can often take a back seat to controversy.
WHAT THE GOVERNMENT DOESN’T WANT TO TALK ABOUT: Downing Street did its absolute best not to comment on U.K. Ambassador to Washington Peter Mandelson purportedly appearing in the Jeffrey Epstein “birthday book.” Wes Streeting said of the ambo and Labour grandee this morning: “I’m sure he will have more to say. But I don’t think we should tar everyone as kind of guilty by association.” The housekeeper in one of the pics featuring Mandelson spoke to the Telegraph.
SHOW US THE MONEY: John Healey’s new Defense Industrial Joint Council will meet Wednesday, my colleagues Esther Webber and Dan Bloom hear. The body will bring together industry bigwigs and union leaders who want a say in how the U.K. will ramp up defense production. One U.K. aerospace executive said the noises from government are “encouraging” but warned concrete details might have to wait for yet another strategy (the defense investment plan), which isn’t due until the end of the year.
Big wheels keep on turning: The U.K. officially joined the multinational Common Armoured Vehicle (CAVS) program, as announced by Defense Minister Vernon Coaker in his big address at the first day of DSEI, where Esther has been hanging out. Patria and Babcock have entered an agreement to support manufacturing of Patria 6×6 vehicles in the U.K.
SHIFTING SANDS: Britain saw its first uncontrolled small boat landing in almost three years over the weekend, when a vessel came ashore in Kent without being intercepted at sea. Bloomberg’s Ellen Milligan got the scoop, and also hears the Home Office wants Border Force to take small boats intercepted in French waters back to France — which would require permission from Paris.
TRIPLE LOCKED: Kemi Badenoch insisted the Tories are committed to the pensions triple lock, despite suggesting in the past it could be up for grabs. Asked after her speech in the City this morning whether she might scrap it, she insisted: “No. The triple lock is Conservative policy, has been, and it continues to be.”
Nevertheless: Badenoch insisted the Tories could cut the welfare bill and (classic political gambit klaxon) offered to work with Labour to find “common ground” on the issue.
Overseas and loving it: Shadow Chancellor Mel Stride was having fun miles from the Badenoch speech, chatting with fellow former bigwigs in Washington D.C. Pic here.
REPORTS OUT THIS AFTERNOON: The Future Health think tank (founded by ex-Matt Hancock SpAd Richard Sloggett) has a report out about targeting neighborhood health to counter Reform.
WHAT THE LIB DEMS WANT TO TALK ABOUT: The Care Quality Commission report published today that warned corridor care in A&E has become a “regrettable reality.” Health spokesperson Helen Morgan said the government “does not seem able to grasp the scale of the challenge it is facing” on the issue.
WHERE ARE THEY NOW? Conservative former minister Steve Baker launched his “Fighting for a Free Future” movement all about getting “a British Javier Milei” into Downing Street. It even has its own merch site — for the discerning fashionista who wants “taxation is worse than theft” on a t-shirt.
SOCIAL (MEDIA) AFFAIRS
THAT’S POLITICS: Stockton North MP Chris McDonald (briefly) endorsed Bridget Phillipson for deputy prime minister despite David Lammy only just getting his feet under the table. The graphic was swiftly deleted but captured for posterity by the Express’ Christian Calgie.
BEYOND THE M25
THIS KENT BE HAPPENING: Eight Kent Labour MPs wrote to Reform council leader Linden Kemkaran condemning her “conspiracies” about COVID vaccines. Kemkaran told Times Radio at the weekend Reform should consider investigating whether the jabs are linked to cancer, as a speaker at the Reform conference argued.
UKRAINE UPDATE: Russian President Vladimir Putin told Donald Trump he intends to occupy Ukraine’s Donbass region in a few months, according to Volodymyr Zelenskyy. My continental colleague Elena Giordano has further deets.
On the ground: The Ukrainian president said 24 civilians queuing to receive their pensions were killed in a Russian airstrike on a village in the Donetsk region, with another 21 people wounded. Sky has more.
IN NEPAL: Nepal’s prime minister resigned after demonstrations against a social media ban left at least 22 people dead. The Telegraph has the rundown.
AID ATTACK: Climate activist Greta Thunberg’s flotilla carrying humanitarian aid for Gaza was struck by a drone in Tunisian waters. My POLITICO colleague Ketrin Jochecová has a writeup.
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TONIGHT’S MEDIA ROUND
LEADING THE NEWS BULLETINS: Channel 5 News (5 p.m.) focuses on NHS hospital league tables and has an interview with Health Minister Karin Smyth … BBC News at Six, ITV Evening News (6.30 p.m.) and Channel 4 News (7 p.m.) all lead on Israel striking Hamas leaders in Qatar.
Tom Swarbrick at Drive (LBC, until 6 p.m.): RMT Senior Assistant General Secretary John Leach (5.05 p.m.) … Unite General Secretary Sharon Graham (5.35 p.m.).
Drive with John Pienaar (Times Radio, until 7 p.m.): Karin Smyth … Labour MP Clive Efford … former Israel Defense Forces spokesperson Jonathan Conricus … French Foreign Affairs, Defense and Armed Forces Committee Vice President Hélène Conway-Mouret … former U.S. Middle East Special Envoy for Humanitarian Affairs David Satterfield … former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for near Eastern Affairs Barbara Leaf.
The News Agents (Podcast, drops at 5 p.m.): World Wide Web inventor Tim Berners-Lee.
Tonight With Andrew Marr (LBC, 6 p.m.): Karin Smyth … former Transport Secretary Louise Haigh … Labour MP Dawn Butler.
Dewbs and Co (GB News, 6 p.m.): Tory peer Jacqueline Foster … former Chancellor Nadhim Zahawi … former Tory Cabinet Minister Ranil Jayawardena … former Lib Dem adviser Jo Phillips.
Politics Hub with Sophy Ridge (Sky News, 7 p.m.): Labour Deputy Leadership contender Bell Ribeiro-Addy (7.05 p.m.) … Karin Smyth (7.40 p.m.) … former Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng … Lib Dem MP Christine Jardine.
The Evening Edition with Kait Borsay (Times Radio, 7 p.m.): Academic Luciano Zaccara (7 p.m.) … former British Ambassador to Iran Nicholas Hopton (8 p.m.).
Cross Question with Iain Dale (LBC, 8 p.m.): Labour MP Rosie Wrighting … Conservative MP Ashley Fox … Reform UK MP Sarah Pochin … the Mail on Sunday’s Dan Hodges.
Jacob Rees-Mogg’s State of the Nation (GB News, 8 p.m.): Tory MPs Esther McVey and Andrew Rosindell … former Health Minister Maria Caulfield.
Patrick Christys Tonight (GB News, 9 p.m.): Reform UK councilor Laila Cunningham … Migration Watch UK Chair Alp Mehmet.
Newsnight (BBC 2, 10.30 p.m.): Labour peer and former Home Secretary David Blunkett … Labour deputy leadership contender Alison McGovern.
TWEETING TOMORROW’S PAPERS TONIGHT: George Mann.
REVIEWING THE PAPERS TONIGHT: Times Radio (10.30 p.m.): Playbook’s own Dan Bloom and PoliticsHome’s Nadine Batchelor-Hunt … Sky News (10.30 p.m. and 11.30 p.m.): LBC’s Ali Miraj and journo Jenny Kleeman.
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WHERE TO FIND BOOZE IN WESTMINSTER TONIGHT
STUDENT PRICES? Labour Students and the NUS are hosting a drinks reception for comrades (staffers and MPs included) who began their political lives in the student movement, from 6 p.m. at One Great George Street. Student ID not required — and VKs not included at the bar. 😢
SOFT DRINKS ONLY: The Health Foundation holds its annual reception at IET London: Savoy Place from 6.30 p.m.
MUSING WITH MODERATES: Former Development Minister Anneliese Dodds gives the Rita Hinden memorial lecture, hosted by the Renewal journal, at City St George’s University from 6.30 p.m. followed by a reception.
TOMORROW’S WORLD
HAPPENING OVERNIGHT: The Public Accounts Committee has a report out about governance of big projects, while the Scottish Affairs Committee has a report out about space launches.
NEXT LEG OF THE TRIP: New Business Secretary Peter Kyle heads from Washington D.C. to China.
OFF GUARD: Parliamentary security staff walk out for another 24 hour strike, from 7 a.m.
CONTINENTAL DRIFT: European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen delivers her State of the Union address, from 7 a.m. U.K. time.
WHAT THE GOVERNMENT WANTS TO TALK ABOUT: Hospitals, energy supplies and cyber security.
WHAT ELSE THE GOVERNMENT WANTS TO TALK ABOUT: Defense, with Chancellor Rachel Reeves and Defense Secretary John Healey appearing at the big DSEI arms fair.
WHAT THE GOVERNMENT MIGHT BE RELUCTANT TO TALK ABOUT: Israeli President Isaac Herzog is expected to be in the U.K.
WAR TALKS: E5 defense ministers are expected to meet in London.
JUST FOR FUN: Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy appears at the Culture, Media and Sport Committee from 9.45 a.m.
LOBBY LIFE: The government’s preferred candidate for Registrar of Consultant Lobbyists Claire Bassett is quizzed by the Public Administration and Constitutional Affairs Committee at 10 a.m.
LAW ONTO HIMSELF: Attorney General Richard Hermer chats rule of law with the Lords’ Constitution Committee at 10.30 a.m.
IN THE LORDS: Peers slide in from 11 a.m. with the tenth day at committee stage of the Children’s Wellbeing and Schools Bill followed by oral questions on nuclear regulation, child poverty and sickness benefits.
IN THE COMMONS: MPs rock up from 11.30 a.m. with DSIT questions, PMQs and the remaining stages of the Bus Services (No. 2) Bill.
TOR DE FORCE: Pensions Minister (and budget adviser) Torsten Bell is speaking at the Social Market Foundation pensions conference at 5.30 p.m. tomorrow at Carlton House Terrace. Details here.
INCOMING DEBATE: Sky News hosts a debate on immigration in Birmingham, from 7 p.m. New minister Mike Tapp will appear for Labour, Zia Yusuf for Reform, Kieran Mullan for the Tories, and Lisa Smart for the Lib Dems.
DEBATE INCOMING: The deputy Labour leadership hustings is happening online from 8 p.m. after the latest nominations numbers have been published.
ANY OTHER BUSINESS
NOW HIRING: LabourList is looking for a reporter or senior reporter who will work under incoming editor Emma Burnell. Current Editor Tom Belger is leaving this week.
COMING ATTRACTIONS: Former Labour staffer Tara O’Reilly has a memoir coming out in August 2026, about poverty, politics and the price of speaking out. Here’s the Waterstones page.
WHAT I’VE BEEN READING: Labour ex-adviser Peter Hyman writes on Substack about how to get stuff done in government after Phase One of the Keir Starmer administration was somewhat underwhelming. “This government needs thrust and a lot of it, if it is to change the country,” Hyman argues. “There’s too little thrust around at the moment.”
And as a companion piece … Labour Growth Group Chair Chris Curtis writes in the New Statesman about how Whitehall can learn from devolved areas like Manchester. “Andy Burnham’s mayoralty, working alongside council leaders, built a culture that looks for ways to say yes to investment, rather than the risk-averse instinct in Whitehall to say no,” he argues.
PACKED LUNCH OR PALACE LUNCH: Subject to change, here are the lunch menus on the estate tomorrow: Bellamy’s: Chili honey tempura chicken on ciabatta with pickled red cabbage, cucumber and garlic sauce; paprika grilled cod with turmeric, Anna potatoes, roasted carrot and leek; lentil, chickpea and bean chili with rice and tortilla chips … The Debate: Korean sticky yangnyeom chicken burger with coleslaw; Caribbean escovitch sea bream with scotch bonnet jam, turmeric and pepper rice and fried plantain; baked feta and spinach filo pinwheel with butterbeans, in oregano and tomato sauce … Terrace Cafeteria: Steamed chicken and mushroom fricasse with rice; mac and cheese; lemon sole goujons with tartare and lemon … River Restaurant: Mac and cheese with garlic bread and salad; roast chicken with all the trimmings; cod, salmon and avocado quiche with new potatoes and salad.
ON THIS DAY IN POLITICS: On Sept. 9, 1976 Mao Zedong died at the age of 82. On the same day in 2015, Queen Elizabeth became the longest-reigning monarch in British history.
WRITING PLAYBOOK TOMORROW MORNING: Sam Blewett.
THANKS TO: My editor Matt Honeycombe-Foster, reporter Noah Keate and the POLITICO production team for making it look nice.
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