In an interview marking the start of the new Senedd term, she said she was “determined to make sure that people recognise” that in Wales, “we hold on to the values that have always set us apart”.

Her comments came after a turbulent couple of weeks in which Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer faced intense scrutiny over the appointment of US ambassador Peter Mandelson and lost his deputy leader Angela Rayner due to housing tax issues.

But the political temperature in Wales is also rising and nerves are beginning to jangle ahead of a crucial by-election in Caerphilly on October 23, which is also being seen as a test run for the Senedd elections in May.

The by-election, following the sudden death of Labour Senedd member Hefin David in August, will be important for a couple of reasons.

If Labour loses the seat they have held since devolution began in 1999, they will struggle to get their budget through the Senedd early next year.

It would leave Labour on 29 of the Senedd’s 60 seats, meaning it will need the help of two opposition politicians to get its agenda through.

If Labour was unable to pass the budget, the Welsh Government’s funding would be automatically cut, under the law that governs how devolution works.

Eluned MorganWales’ First Minister Eluned Morgan. Photo: Andy Buchanan/PA

But the by-election is also being seen as a weather-vane for how the Welsh public are feeling ahead of the Senedd election itself in May next year.

With Reform seemingly on the rise across the country and the collapse of Keir Starmer’s popularity in opinion polls, is the move by Welsh Labour to distance itself from Westminster’s Labour Government something the Welsh public will accept?

Eluned Morgan’s remarks signal a further separation from the UK party following her landmark speech in May in which she pledged to “call out” Sir Keir if she disagreed with him, coining the phrase the “red Welsh way”.

There have long been tensions within the party over whether Welsh Labour should follow the UK party or pursue a more pro-devolution path.

After Sir Keir’s 2024 general election win, Welsh Labour campaigned on the idea that the first minister would work closely with him in a “partnership in power”.

But some Welsh priorities, such as rail funding and justice devolution, were ignored.

Ms Morgan has not shown support for the prime minister, but implied she wanted the public to understand she has no control over the decisions made by No. 10 and the UK Government.

She added: “It’s important that I’m held to account for the things that are within my power and responsibilities. 

“That’s why the red Welsh Way is important, it’s in keeping with the values of the people of Wales”.

Morgan said the Senedd election was an “opportunity for us to go out and make sure we’re aligned exactly with what people want us to do”.

Welsh Labour has previously said it and UK Labour were “proud of our role in delivering devolution, and while our Governments may sometimes take different approaches, we are always united in our commitment to deliver for Wales”.

So eyes will firmly be fixed on the Caerphilly by-election in little over a month. 

Will Labour hold on to it and ease their budget woes and nerves ahead of the Senedd election, will Plaid Cymru pick up lost Labour votes or will the Reform train keep on rolling all the way to Cardiff Bay?

Caerphilly-based children’s publisher and financial analyst Richard Tunnicliffe is standing for Labour, Plaid Cymru has selected former Caerphilly council leader Lindsay Whittle, ex-charity and retail worker Gareth Potter has been chosen by the Conservatives and Reform has selected Llyr Powell, a man handling its communications in Wales.

What an appetiser for the main course of the Senedd elections in May – whether Keir Starmer is still in power then or not.