In contrast to the EU, which has traditionally targeted sharp pollution cuts and then relied on others to follow suit, China has tended to underpromise so it can overdeliver.
Experts are increasingly convinced that China’s pollution may peak this year, five years ahead of an official 2030 target that is viewed in Europe as hopelessly weak. Beijing is expected to announce a new target this week for the rate of decline in its emissions over the coming decade. European envoys and former Biden administration officials have pushed for China to target a 30 percent decline. However, few observers believe Beijing will even come close to that number.
If China disappoints as expected, “the European Union will not be in the position to comment, or at least comment credibly,” said Li. That demonstrates in visceral terms how Europe’s internal divisions have led to its “losing political influence” globally, he said.
The EU’s power in climate talks has often relied on a coalition with small island countries, for whom rapid cuts to emissions are the only acceptable goal. But heading into the COP30 conference, those traditional allies are now looking to China for leadership.
Alongside its huge coal power sector, China is the dominant clean energy player. That is not only translating to a huge growth in domestic renewable energy: Chinese firms have booked investments worth at least $210 billion in clean manufacturing projects outside China since 2022, according to a report from the Net Zero Industrial Policy Lab at Johns Hopkins University. In real terms, it surpasses the Marshall Plan in scale.
“One of the things that we recognize is China has a lot to benefit from keeping the Paris Agreement alive,” said Seid, the ambassador from Palau. She said her country’s president had personally lobbied Macron. “There’s a lot of political work that’s being done to really try to have the EU step up.”
Karl Mathiesen reported from London. Zia Weise reported from Brussels. Sara Schonhardt reported from Washington. Louise Guillot contributed to this report from Brussels.