November 2025 WTI NYMEX futures prices retreated rapidly after having breached the Upper-Bollinger Band limit the prior week. They are now trading below the 8-, 13- and 20-day Moving Averages this week and managed to breach the Lower-Bollinger Band limit, a Buy signal. Small gains occurred Friday on this technical buying.

Volume is around the recent average at 208,000. The Relative Strength Indicator (RSI), a momentum indicator, is now in oversold territory at 41, another potential Buy signal. Resistance is now pegged at $61.50 while near-term critical Support is $60.35 (Lower-Bollinger Band).  

Looking ahead

Traders will enter next week with the prospect of OPEC+ output increases baked into prices after this week’s declines. Hard data as to the actual increases achieved with these decisions will set the tone going forward but the current bear market for oil will be hard to shake as we’ve exited the driving season.

The Tropics continue to show no real threat to the Gulf of Mexico as we move towards the end of the peak of the hurricane season on Oct. 15.

A prolonged government shutdown will set a negative tone for the US economy which is always negative for energy demand.

Natural gas, fundamental analysis

NYMEX natural gas futures got a boost this week on the change from October to November, the first winter month on the energy calendar. Additionally, 90-degree temperatures remained for much of the southern tier of states. A lower-than-forecasted storage injection added some bullish sentiment midweek as well.

The week’s High was $3.585 /MMbtu on Thursday while the week’s Low was $3.13 on Monday. Supply/demand data was not available this week due to the government shutdown.  

Dutch TTF prices fell slightly to $10.92/MMbtu while Asia’s JKM was quoted at $11.05/MMbtu.

The EIA’s Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report indicated an injection of 53 bcf, below the forecasted +71 bcf. Total gas in storage is now 3.561 tcf, holding at just 0.6% above last year and to 5.0% above the 5-year average. Theoretically, there are just 4 weeks left in the injection season. To achieve a season-ending volume of 3.9 tcf, injections would have to average 85 bcf per week and 110 bcf to reach 4.0 tcf.

Natural gas, technical analysis