59m agoTue 14 Oct 2025 at 5:48amMarket snapshot
- ASX 200: +0.19% to 8,899 points (close)
- Australian dollar: flat at 65.1 US cents
- S&P 500: +1.6% to 6,654 points
- Nasdaq: +2.2% to 22,694 points
- FTSE 100: +0.2% to 9,442 points
- EuroStoxx 600: +0.4% to 566 points
- Spot gold: +0.28% to $US4,123/ounce
- Brent crude: -0.33% at $US63.13/barrel
- Iron ore: -2.25% at $US105/tonne
- Bitcoin: -2.65% at $US112,728
Prices current at around 4:45pm AEDT
Live updates on the major ASX indices:
38m agoTue 14 Oct 2025 at 6:10am
Until tomorrow
That’s it from us today. Thanks for joining us.
We’ll be back early tomorrow morning to catch you up on developments in global markets overnight.
The Reserve Bank’s assistant governor (economic), Sarah Hunter, will be speaking at the Citi Australia & New Zealand Investment Conference in Sydney tomorrow morning, at 10:30am AEDT.
The Bureau of Statistics will be publishing its June quarter Building Statistics at 11:30am AEDT (estimates of value of building work and number of dwellings commenced, completed, under construction and in the pipeline).
Until then, take care of yourselves.
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53m agoTue 14 Oct 2025 at 5:54am
Best and worst performers
Among the top performing stocks on the ASX200 index today were Iluka Resources (up $1.21, +15.76%, at $8.89), Deep Yellow (up 28 cents, +13.53%, to $2.35), and Paladin Energy (up 84 cents, +9.57%, to $9.62).
Among the worst performers were DroneShield (down 39 cents, -6.47%, to $5.64), Austal (down 20 cents, –2.8%, to $6.95), and Guzman Y Gomez (down 54 cents, -2.15%, to $24.53).
1h agoTue 14 Oct 2025 at 5:35amThe Business airing on iView tonight
If you were thinking of tuning into The Business tonight, the program will not air on News Channel tonight due to special programming.
But it will still be available on ABC iView at the usual time.
1h agoTue 14 Oct 2025 at 5:26amASX closes 0.2pc higher
Trading has finished for the day, and the ASX200 index managed to gain 16.6 points (+0.19%), to close on 8,899.4 points.
1h agoTue 14 Oct 2025 at 5:08am
Businesses more confident than consumers
Westpac senior economist Mantas Vanagas says NAB’s latest business survey suggests that businesses were slightly more optimistic in September, with a slight rise in profitability, but they haven’t yet responded by taking on more employees.
The survey pointed to a couple reasons for businesses to remain relatively cautious.
“For example, the forward orders index dipped by 3 points, after being at the long-term average in August, hinting at a possibility that the firmer trading conditions might be short-lived.
“And firms appear to already hold a relatively high levels of inventories, with the stock index rising by 4 points to 10, the top of the recent range.
“Against this backdrop, the survey reported a slight weakening in capex expenditure (down 2 points to 7), implying that a more sustained improvement in business conditions will be required to encourage businesses to significantly increase investment.
“The picture for the September quarter as a whole looked broadly similar: overall business conditions improved by 3 points versus the June quarter, but the forward orders measure remained unchanged at a more subdued level of -1.
“On a quarterly basis, the capex index looked slightly more positive, showing a small improvement from the June quarter average.
But he says firm business conditions in September did give businesses more confidence about the future, with the headline confidence index rising by 3 points to 7, offsetting a 4-point decline in the previous month.
He says that change contrasts with the deterioration in Westpac-Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment in the last couple of months, which has showed consumer confidence falling back to firmly pessimistic levels – “likely a reaction to higher monthly indicators of consumer price inflation, higher house price growth recently and shifting interest rates expectations.”
2h agoTue 14 Oct 2025 at 4:29amUpward trend in “capacity utilisation” makes more rate cuts less likely
NAB’s latest monthly business survey was out this morning, and CreditorWatch’s chief economist, Ivan Colhoun, says it contained some interesting information.
He says it relates to the minutes from the recent RBA Board meeting, which were released this morning.
Mr Colhoun says the data about capacity utilisation was important, because it shows a rising trend.
“Capacity utilisation” is an estimate of how much of an economy’s potential output is being used (expressed as a percentage).
See the blue line in this graphic:
He says trends in the capacity utilisation measure are also useful as an indicator of the trend in the official cash rate.
That’s because the measure includes utilisation of the labour force (which is a lead indicator of the unemployment rate and of likely wages pressures).
He says he thinks the level of capacity utilisation – not just the trend – is probably important too.
“Cap use rose a little further in September, to the equal highest level since May last year,” he writes.
“The trend strengthening would not normally be considered consistent with trend declines in interest rates, if anything the reverse if the trend continues.
2h agoTue 14 Oct 2025 at 3:54am
Nothing to worry about
Did anyone mention gold ?
– Craig
What about gold?
3h agoTue 14 Oct 2025 at 3:29amStickiness in inflation opens “can of worms” for RBA
Belinda Allen, CBA’s head of Australian economics, says the RBA Board’s minutes had a “more hawkish tone.”
She doesn’t expect any more rate cuts this year and she thinks the next cut will likely come no earlier than February at this stage.
“We expect a cautious and data dependent RBA to continue for the rest of 2025 with no change to the cash rate.
“If inflation data for the fourth quarter shows signs of moderating we expect the next cut to the cash rate in February 2026.
“The risk currently sits with no more rate cuts this cycle.”
She says Australia’s economy has evolved since the RBA’s August forecast refresh, along these lines:
- Household consumption has been stronger
- Inflation data has proved to be stickier than expected
She says the stickiness in inflation appears to have “opened a can of worms for the RBA,” with comparisons to sticky services inflation offshore as well as questions emerging about the size of the output gap in Australia’s economy.
“Evidence is building that the onus will be on the data to prove why further rate cuts are needed for the Australian economy,” she said.
3h agoTue 14 Oct 2025 at 3:17am
ASX flat
We’re just over two-thirds of the way through the trading day and the ASX200 index is down 0.0079%.
4h agoTue 14 Oct 2025 at 2:34am
Only one more rate cut to come from the RBA?
ANZ senior economist Adelaide Timbrell says the minutes from the RBA Board’s recent monetary policy meeting are unlikely to have much impact on market views on the outlook for the cash rate.
“Our own view remains that this cycle has one more rate cut left
(with no cuts more likely than two).“We retain our call that the RBA will deliver a final 25-basis-point cut in the first half of 2026, with February the earliest plausible timing.
“We then see the cash rate
staying at 3.35% for an extended period.”
If February is the earliest plausible timing for another rate cut from the RBA, that means the 2025-26 Ashes series will be over before rates fall any further.
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4h agoTue 14 Oct 2025 at 2:13am
Overseas arrivals and departures in August
Kiwis still like us.
The Bureau of Statistics has published its latest overseas arrivals and departures numbers.
These statistics refer to the number of international border crossings rather than the number of people.
In August, there were 1,809,810 total arrivals (+9.3% on one year earlier), and 1,834,620 total departures (+8.3% on one year earlier).
You can see from the graphic below how those numbers are finally back to their pre-COVID trend.
Looking at the source countries for short-term visitor arrivals, New Zealanders seem to like us for some reason.
It would have nothing to do with proximity.
The three leading source countries where visitors came from were:
- New Zealand (114,660 trips)
- China (98,720)
- Japan (60,610).
China was the largest source country for short-term visitor arrivals before the pandemic, but it’s now in second place.
5h agoTue 14 Oct 2025 at 1:43am
It’s been fixed
G’day Gareth. This morning Stephanie and I were discussing a screw up on the website of the Commonwealth Superannuation Corporation. If she is still on board she might like to know they’ve fixed it. Someone there obviously follows the blog !
– Phillip
Thanks Phillip, they have impeccable taste.
5h agoTue 14 Oct 2025 at 1:26am
Is the RBA Board a little less confident about the room it has to move?
Abhijit Surya, from Capital Economics, says the minutes of the recent RBA Board meeting (released this morning) suggest that the board may be less confident about the policy space it has to lower rates.
But he still expects the RBA to deliver two more 25-basis-point cuts in the months ahead.
“On balance, the RBA reiterated its view that policy settings were probably still restrictive, but it sounded increasingly uncertain about the degree of restrictiveness.
“Our sense is that there continues to be scope for the bank to lower the cash rate to 3.10% by early-2026.
“However, given its preference to move cautiously, the risk is that rates won’t be cut as far and/or as quickly as we’re expecting.
The RBA Board left the cash rate target at 3.6% at its recent meeting.
5h agoTue 14 Oct 2025 at 1:00amANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence hits 12-month low
The latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian consumer confidence survey shows confidence fell 2.1 points last week.
The four-week moving average declined 0.7 points to its lowest level since October 2024.
“The softness in confidence was broad-based, but notably, household confidence in the economy over the next five years has dropped to its lowest level in over 15 years,” ANZ economist Sophia Angala said.
“Globally, the US federal government shutdown, ongoing trade policy uncertainty and political uncertainty in Japan and France may have been behind this.”
The data show that across housing cohorts, the fall in confidence was driven by mortgage holders.
ANZ thinks this may have been due to discussion about the possibility of an RBA cash rate hold in November.
6h agoTue 14 Oct 2025 at 12:42am
RBA board minutes: Monetary policy ‘still a little restrictive’
The minutes of last month’s Reserve Bank monetary policy board meeting have just been published.
The board kept the cash rate target at 3.6%.
In the minutes, which you can read in the link below, board members said: “Monetary policy was probably still a little restrictive but acknowledged the extent of restriction was difficult to determine.“
They said financial conditions had eased recently with the reduction in the cash rate target in August, and the pick-up in housing price and credit growth over prior months was indicative of the easing in monetary policy earlier in the year having an impact.
But it may be some time before the full effect of that easing flows through the economy.
In the global economy, they said, risks remained heightened.
Higher tariff rates imposed by the United States were now in effect for many economies, but there was still considerable uncertainty about their macroeconomic effects (given their scale and potential for further change as the United States continues negotiations with its three largest trading partners).
On the upside, global trade had remained at a high level, in part reflecting significant shifts in global trade patterns in response to the higher tariffs.
GDP growth in Australia’s trading partners had also remained resilient and stronger than expected in the June quarter. Economic activity in the United States had been surprisingly robust, though employment growth had slowed over preceding months and GDP growth was expected to slow as well.
Members noted that the slowing in US employment growth could, at least in part, reflect changes in US immigration policy and measures to reduce the number of federal government employees.
Higher tariffs were also contributing a little to US inflation.
On China, the board members noted that domestic demand had slowed by more than expected in July and August, but any material slowing in activity in China would probably prompt incremental fiscal stimulus from the authorities to support growth.
The slowing had been particularly pronounced for fixed asset investment.
Members noted that infrastructure and manufacturing investment had been affected by the fading impact of supportive policies announced in late 2024, adverse weather conditions, uncertainty over tariffs and a strengthening in authorities’ resolve to curb excess capacity.
They also observed that the long-term slowdown in China’s real estate sector may have accelerated somewhat.
Notwithstanding these developments, bulk commodity prices had increased slightly. Iron ore and coking coal prices had been supported by resilient underlying demand from Chinese steel mills.
The staff’s assessment was still that any material slowing in activity in China would prompt incremental fiscal stimulus from the authorities to support growth.
6h agoTue 14 Oct 2025 at 12:15amMore than 2 million taxpayers yet to lodge income tax returns
More than 2 million taxpayers are yet to self lodge their income tax returns by the October 31 deadline, and late lodging could result in penalties according to the Australian Taxation Office (ATO).
“If you’re lodging yourself, you need to have completed and submitted your return by 31 October,” ATO Assistant Commissioner Rob Thomson said.
“If you plan to lodge through a registered tax professional, you must be on their books by 31 October.”
Mr Thomson said lodging by the due date ensures taxpayers are not subject to late lodgment penalties.
He said it was a myth that delaying lodgment of a tax return will buy people more time to pay.
“If you have prepared your own tax return and incur a tax bill, it will be due on 21 November,” he said.
“If you’re worried you won’t be able to lodge or pay by the due dates, contact your registered tax professional or visit the ATO website beforehand to find out what support options are available to you.”
The ATO noted more than 8.7 million taxpayers have already ticked lodging off their to-do list, with over 4.4 million having self-lodged and over 4.2 million lodged through a registered tax agent.
For those yet to lodge, Mr Thomson reminded people “don’t be tempted to inflate your work-related expenses”.
I spoke to Mr Thomson earlier this year about the do’s and don’ts of lodging your tax return. Watch here:
6h agoTue 14 Oct 2025 at 12:14am
ASX200 in negative territory
The ASX200 index is now down 22 points (-0.18%) to 8,858 points.
7h agoMon 13 Oct 2025 at 11:37pmAnsell reports ‘unauthorised access’ to data
Ansell has been hit by a cyber incident, with the company reporting unauthorised access to some data.
“The unauthorised access via licensed third-party software vulnerabilities was limited and did not impact the broader company environment,” Ansell’s statement reads.
“As soon as this was detected, we took immediate containment action.”
It’s unclear from the personal protection firm’s ASX release exactly what data was accessed.
But the company says its “initial findings indicate that a majority of the accessed data consisted of non-sensitive business information”, but a portion did contain “confidential transaction data or personally identifiable information”.
Ansell says it’s working with cyber experts and will coordinate its response with “relevant government agencies and regulators”.
Ansell shares are down 0.6% so far this session.
7h agoMon 13 Oct 2025 at 11:28pmAustralian share market slightly higher as miners rise
A bit further into the local session and it’s really the materials sector helping the ASX 200 keep its head (just) above water at the moment.
ASX 200 sectors (LSEG Refinitiv)
Here are the performing stocks so far, with a mix of miners making the list:
- Iluka Resources +12.4%
- Catalyst Metals +8.8%
- Lynas Rare Earths +6.6%
- Iperionx +6.4%
- Liontown Resources +5.7%
And the worst:
- Mesoblast -3.6%
- DroneSheild -3.5%
- Web Travel Group -3%
- NIB -2.6%
- Fletcher Building -2.5%