Sports Mole previews Saturday’s Premier League clash between Burnley and Leeds United, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.
Last season’s top-two teams in the Championship lock horns in a Premier League contest at Turf Moor on Saturday afternoon, as Burnley play host to Leeds United.
This fixture sees Clarets boss Scott Parker face Leeds manager Daniel Farke, the bottom two coaches for PL points-per-game averages of any to oversee 50+ matches in the division’s history – Parker averaging 0.75 per game to Farke’s 0.61.
Match preview
After losing out to Leeds on goal difference in the 2024-25 Championship title race, despite accumulating 100 points, Burnley have since experienced a difficult start to life back in the big time and have collected only four points from their opening seven matches.
All four of those points have been picked up on home soil, including their first and only win of the season to fellow promoted team Sunderland in August, but the Clarets are now without a victory in five top-flight fixtures and most recently suffered a 2-1 loss at Aston Villa before the international break.
Parker’s side have conceded the second-most goals across the opening seven PL matches this term (15, behind only West Ham with 16), and it is remarkably just one fewer than they shipped in 46 Championship games last season. In Football League history, the only team to concede their previous season’s tally within their first eight games of a campaign were Liverpool back in 1894-95 (first seven).
Controlling games has not been Burnley’s forte so far this term, as they are averaging just 35.3% possession in the Premier League, the third-lowest average of any team in a campaign on Opta’s records in the division (from 2003-04), ahead of only Cardiff City in 2018-19 (33.9%) and Sheffield United in 2023-24 (35.0%).
The Clarets will at least take comfort from the fact that they picked up four points across home and away encounters with Leeds last season (1-0 away and 0-0 at home), while they head into Saturday’s contest having lost only one of their last six league games against the Whites at Turf Moor (W3 D2).
Leeds have collected twice as many points as Burnley in the Premier League this season after winning two, drawing two and losing three of their opening seven matches, most recently losing 2-1 at home to Tottenham prior to the international break.
The Whites currently sit 15th in the table, four points above 18th-placed Burnley, and they have now lost eight of their last 10 top-flight games in which they have conceded the first goal (W1 D1), including three of their five so far this term.
Farke is now preparing his Leeds side for a “difficult period” as they will play on the road in three of their next four league fixtures before November’s international break, and the German has admitted that he ‘does not expect any easy moments’ against Parker’s team this weekend.
Although Leeds failed to score in both Championship encounters with Burnley last season, they have only lost two of their last nine meetings with the Clarets in all competitions (W4 D3), suffering defeat in just one of their last six in the league (W3 D2).
After beating Wolves 3-1 in September, Leeds are looking to secure consecutive Premier League away victories for the first time since April 2022 under former boss Jesse Marsch. Success on the road is not a given, though, as the Whites have kept just one clean sheet in their last 24 away matches in the top flight (a 0-0 draw with Newcastle in December 2022), conceding 51 goals in the process.
Burnley Premier League form:
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Burnley form (all competitions):
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Leeds United Premier League form:
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Team News
Burnley defenders Jordan Beyer (hamstring) and Connor Roberts (knee) have both suffered setbacks in their recover from injury and remain sidelined along with forward Zeki Amdouni (knee).
Parker has confirmed that Lyle Foster sustained only a dead leg on international duty with South Africa and the Clarets boss is confident that the striker could feature against Leeds, while there is hope that Jaidon Anthony will also be fit to feature after he suffered a ‘big hit in the quad’ against Aston Villa.
Hjalmar Ekdal was surprisingly left out of the matchday squad for the defeat at Villa for tactical reasons and it remains to be seen whether the centre-back will return this weekend. If not, Josh Laurent, Axel Tuanzebe and Maxime Esteve could continue in the heart of the defence.
As for Leeds, Willy Gnonto (hernia) and Harry Gray (hip) are both ruled out through injury and Noah Okafor (adductor) is a doubt, while Daniel James and Lucas Perri have a chance of featuring in the matchday squad after recovering from respective ankle and muscle issues.
Farke has named the exact same starting lineup in each of the last four Premier League matches and he will be tempted to stick with the same side again this weekend – the Whites last named the same XI in more consecutive games in the division from April to August 1995 (eight).
Anton Stach is one of only seven Premier League players to both attempt at least 10 shots (12) and create at least 10 chances from open play (10) this term, leading all Leeds players in both metrics, and the midfielder is expected to continue in the middle of the pitch alongside Ethan Ampadu and Sean Longstaff.
Burnley possible starting lineup:
Dubravka; Walker, Laurent, Tuanzebe, Esteve, Hartman; Tchaouna, Florentino, Cullen, Anthony; Foster
Leeds United possible starting lineup:
Darlow; Bogle, Rodon, Struijk, Gudmundsson; Stach, Ampadu, Longstaff; Aaronson, Calvert-Lewin, Okafor
We say: Burnley 1-0 Leeds United
This fixture represents a major opportunity for both teams to claim three valuable points and climb away from the relegation zone. Both encounters last season were tight affairs and another close contest could be on the cards this weekend, one that we feel Burnley will edge on home soil.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
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