Türkiye’s 2026 draft budget was set to be presented to Parliament on Thursday, foreseeing TL 18.93 trillion ($452.4 billion) in expenditures and TL 16.22 trillion in revenues, according to Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz.

Speaking at a news conference in Ankara to share details of the 2026 central budget proposal, the vice president reiterated that the Medium-Term Program (MTP) aims to strengthen macroeconomic and financial stability and lower inflation to single digits.

Yılmaz recalled that the MTP covering the 2026-2028 period was published on Sept. 7, stating that, thus, the 2026 budget process has begun.

“Prepared in line with the vision outlined in the 12th Development Plan, the Medium-Term Program aims to strengthen macroeconomic and financial stability, resolutely maintain fiscal discipline, and permanently reduce inflation to single digits and achieve price stability,” he said.

“In this regard, we aim to increase productivity across the economy, develop the R&D and innovation ecosystem, accelerate technological transformation in the transition to a green and digital economy, strengthen human capital, and provide a more efficient labor market structure,” he added.

Furthermore, he also pointed out that improving the business and investment environment, increasing resilience to disasters and reducing informality in the economy “are also among our objectives.”

He went on to describe the 2026 budget, which he said was prepared with an inclusive and sustainable development perspective, as a “stability and prosperity” budget.

He suggested that the budget was completed with the contributions of all ministries, as well as affiliated and relevant public institutions and organizations, in line with the vision and instructions set by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and was prepared for submission to Parliament. Moreover, he recalled the work done under the auspices of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) over the past 23 years.

“We have made significant progress in our country’s physical infrastructure over the last 23 years, particularly through investments in transportation, energy, health care and digitalization. Today’s priority is to make public infrastructure investments more effective and strengthen the production and trade infrastructure to support private sector investments,” he said.

The vice president underscored that the budget was prepared “considering the needs and demands of all segments of society.”

He also said that the reconstruction in earthquake-affected regions and creating disaster-resilient cities would continue to be their priorities in this budget.

“We implement fiscal policy without compromising budget discipline by implementing measures to increase the effectiveness and efficiency of public expenditures and to reduce informality on the public revenue side,” he added.

Growth, unemployment expectations

Yılmaz also stated that, in a climate characterized by disinflationary policies, Türkiye’s economy grew by 3.3% in 2024 and that they anticipate the same growth rate this year.

“Our economy grew by 3.3% in 2024 and we anticipate that it will grow by 3.3% again in 2025,” he said.

At the same time, he emphasized that due to global uncertainties and the moderate global growth outlook, the Turkish economy is expected to grow by 3.8% in 2026.

“With the decline in inflation becoming permanent in this period, macroeconomic fundamentals will be further strengthened, and the favorable environment for predictability, investments and productivity increases will be further strengthened,” he noted.

He also said they expect the unemployment rate to fall to 8.5% in 2025 and to 8.4% in 2026.

Also touching on the record-breaking export trend of Türkiye, Yılmaz said they anticipate achieving their export target of $282 billion by maintaining the uninterrupted increase in exports for 2026.

He added that they continue to support exporters with all their resources and efforts to this end, prioritizing trade diplomacy, increasing product and market diversity, branding, green and digital transformation, and financing support.

Similarly, the vice president highlighted a positive trend in the growth of travel revenues over the last five years, emphasizing that this trend continues upward and continues to contribute to the current account balance. In line with this and the potential in the tourism sector, he said they anticipate tourism revenues would reach $64 billion by the end of this year and a new record level of $68 billion in 2026.

Yılmaz also stated that the moderate trend in imports continues, thanks to the policies implemented during the disinflation process.

“Furthermore, the decrease in energy imports has significantly contributed to the current account balance, and the improvement in the current account balance reduces the need for external financing,” he explained.

Disinflation process

On the inflation outlook, Yılmaz said that the downward trend in global inflation has slowed, and rigidity in service prices has continued to limit the improvement in core indicators.

“Despite this, our country is continuing the disinflation process it began in June 2024 with a strong and determined focus,” he stressed.

He stated that they will resolutely continue the disinflation process within the framework of a holistic program encompassing monetary and fiscal policies and structural transformations. He added that they expect the inflation to fall to 16% by the end of next year.

Inflation in Türkiye edged up slightly to 33.29% in September from 32.95% in August, but is expected to continue the downward trend observed earlier throughout the year.

Türkiye’s gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to be TL 62.2 trillion in 2025, before rising to TL 77 trillion next year, Yılmaz also said.

Budget allocation

Moreover, he shared detailed figures regarding the budget, suggesting they project that the budget expenditures in 2026 will be TL 18.93 trillion, and budget revenues will be TL 16.22 trillion.

“The 2026 budget includes an allocation of TL 653 billion to repair earthquake damage and increase resilience against disasters,” he said.

“We estimate that the budget deficit to GDP ratio in 2026 will be 3.5%. We project that the ratio of the budget deficit to GDP, excluding earthquakes, will be 2.7% in 2026,” he outlined.

According to the budget proposal, the largest share of spending is foreseen for education, at 15.3%, according to Yılmaz.

“Including higher education, we increase our education budget to TL 2.89 trillion in 2026. Thus, we are once again allocating the largest share of the central government budget, at 15.3%, to education,” he said.

He continued by saying that health is among their top priorities, along with education, and added: “We are allocating TL 1.59 trillion from the central government budget for health services to ensure our citizens benefit from health services in the best possible way. Taking into account health expenditures from the Ministry of Health, higher education institutions, and the Social Security Institution (SSK), the total resources allocated to health reach TL 3.3 trillion.”

Among others, he said, the defense expenditures are projected to be TL 1.2 trillion next year.

“With our 2026 budget, we will continue our march toward a strong and prosperous Türkiye, in line with our holistic development vision encompassing education, health care, energy, agriculture and industry,” he noted.

“I hope the 2026 Central Government Budget Law Proposal will be beneficial to our country and our nation,” he concluded.