April’s edition of the Nationwide house price index will be released next Wednesday, as the shakeout from the end of the stamp duty holiday continues.
March’s data – which, given the index measures mortgage approvals, not completions, incorporated transactions likely to incur higher stamp duty costs – saw the index fail to rise for the first time in seven months. Pantheon Macroeconomics thinks the flat growth figure, while below consensus expectations of a 0.2 per cent rise, was “impressive” given the context. But the outlook remains uncertain: this month’s Rics survey of estate agent sentiment saw the balance of new buyer enquiries fall to an 18-month low of -32.
The Bank of England is now forecast to cut base rates of interest next month, and twice more by the year-end. This won’t necessarily be a boon: the increased pace of loosening would probably reflect economic uncertainty stemming from the US tariff rollout.
US: Dallas Fed Manufacturing index
Euro area: Consumer confidence, industrial confidence, M3 money supply, services sentiment
UK: BRC shop price index
US: Consumer confidence, goods trade balance
China: Manufacturing/non-manufacturing PMIs
Euro area: Q1 GDP (preliminary)
Japan: Industrial production, leading economic index
UK: Nationwide house price index
US: Chicago purchasing managers’ index, PCE inflation, Q1 GDP (preliminary)
Japan: BoJ interest rate decision
UK: Consumer credit, mortgage approvals, M4 money supply
US: ISM manufacturing PMI, S&P manufacturing PMI
Euro area: CPI inflation, unemployment
Japan: Unemployment
US: Unemployment