Gold pulls back as Q3 China GDP rises 4.8%yoy
MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below
Atlantic Lithium* (ALL LN) – Lithium-in-soil anomalies discovered within Agboville and Rubino Licences in the Ivory Coast
Aura Energy* (AURA LN) – MD resignation
Cobra Resources (COBR LN) – Update on metallurgical testwork
GreenX Metals (GRX LN) – 1940s report shows 728,000t of contained copper grading ~2.6% copper in part of Tannenberg project, Germany
Kavango Resources* (KAV LN) – MRE delivers 20koz at Nightshift, open pit mining planned
Kodal Minerals* (KOD LN) – Kodal sends first trucks of spodumene concentrate to Ivory Coast border for onward trucking to port
Larvotto Resources (LRV AU) – Non-binding offer from United States Antimony Corp
Pallas Resources* (PRIVATE)– Supergene copper mineralisation identified along trend from Dzhezkazgan
Strategic Minerals* (SML LN) – Redmoor drilling update
Tertiary Minerals* (TYM LN)– Placing to extend drilling at Mushima North
Gold ($4,254/oz) pulls back after extended rally on profit-taking and easing haven demand
- Gold prices fell sharply on Friday, down 4% at one point.
- Prices have subsequently regained some ground, although the mining sector was hit hard.
- The VanEck gold miners’ ETF fell 9% at one point, before retracing some ground.
- The move follows a sharp grind higher last week, amid a sustained US Government shutdown, concerns of a slowing labour market in the US and heightened tariff tension.
- Trump has subsequently rowed back much of the aggression towards China, although trade tensions continue to bubble away as the two sides negotiate.
- US Treasury yields are holding lower ground, after the 10 year fell below 4% for the first time since March.
ii TV – Analyst outlook for FTSE 100 mining stocks, small-caps and lithium: https://youtu.be/mLPY874joJs
IG TV Commodity Corner:
Economics
US – President Tump listed top demands with China before trade talks to resume
- The list includes rare earths, fentanyl and soybeans as US top issues.
- US and China delegations are planned to hold talks later this week in Malaysia as the latest trade truce is set to expire November 10.
China – GDP climbed 4.8%yoy last quarter, a little ahead of expectations, helped by booming exports
- Retail sales slowed to the weakest pace in nearly a year while FAI reported the first YTD contraction since 2020.
- Growth is tracking at 5.2% YTD with authorities reiterating 5% target for the year.
- Property market continued to struggle with a fall in investment picking up in September.
- GDP (%yoy, 3Q/2Q/Est): 4.8/5.2/4.7
- Retail Sales (%yoy, Sep/Aug/Est): 3.0/3.4/3.0
- Industrial Production (%yoy, Sep/Aug/Est): 6.5/5.2/5.0
- FAI (%yoy, Sep/Aug/Est): -0.5/0.5/0.1
- Property Investment (%yoy, Sep/Aug/Est): -13.9/-12.9/-13.1
- Residential Property Sales (%yoy, Sep/Aug/Est): -7.6/7.0/NA
France – S&P cut France’s sovereign credit rating from AA- to A+ in an unscheduled move on political instability and budget deficit concerns
- The agency was scheduled to announce the decision on November 28.
- “In our view, uncertainty on public finances remains elevated ahead of the 2027 presidential elections… One example of this is the new government’s decision to suspend France’s landmark pension reform,” the agency said.
- France lost its double-A rating at of the three major credit agencies in little more than a month.
- Fitch cut its rating in September while Moody’s due to release its score on Friday.
The Louvre in Paris to remain closed on Monday as police is investigating a jewellery robbery in the Sunday morning
- The hunt for robbers who entered the museum yesterday and took tiaras, necklaces and earrings continues.
Currencies
US$1.1663/eur vs 1.1704/eur previous. Yen 150.77/$ vs 149.64/$. SAr 17.333/$ vs 17.439/$. $1.342/gbp vs $1.344/gbp. 0.650/aud vs 0.645/aud. CNY 7.123/$ vs 7.127/$.
Dollar Index 98.48 vs 98.22 previous.
Precious metals:
Gold US$4,256/oz vs US$4,344/oz previous
Gold ETFs 98.2moz vs 98.1moz previous
Platinum US$1,606/oz vs US$1,695/oz previous
Palladium US$1,468/oz vs US$1,581/oz previous
Silver US$51.9/oz vs US$54.1/oz previous
Rhodium US$8,300/oz vs US$7,900/oz previous
Base metals:
Copper US$10,665/t vs US$10,516/t previous
Aluminium US$2,782/t vs US$2,772/t previous
Nickel US$15,100/t vs US$15,140/t previous
Zinc US$2,950/t vs US$2,940/t previous
Lead US$1,976/t vs US$1,975/t previous
Tin US$34,900/t vs US$35,440/t previous
Energy:
Oil US$60.9/bbl vs US$60.7/bbl previous
- The US Baker Hughes rig count rose by 1 to 548 units last week (-37 or 7% y/y), with oil rigs flat at 418 units (-64 y/y) and gas rigs up 1 to 121 units (+22 y/y), as Canada also gained 5 rigs to 198 units (-19 y/y).
- The UK’s NSTA published a report estimating YE24 proved plus probable 2P reserves fell 12% y/y to 2.9bnboe (69% oil) following production of 0.4bnboe, with contingent resources broadly flat at 6.2bnboe and prospective resources up 31% y/y to 4.6bnboe, which is due to the inclusion of the additional prospective resources from the 33rd Licensing round.
Henry Hub Gas US$3.18/mmBtu vs US$2.90/mmBtu last Friday
Natural Gas €31.9/MWh vs €32.1/MWh previous
Uranium Futures $77.2/lb vs $79.4/lb previous
Bulk:
Iron Ore 62% Fe Spot (Singapore) US$104.9/t vs US$105.0/t
Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$445.2/t vs US$445.8/t
HCC FOB Australia US$192.5/t vs US$191.8/t
Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$108.3/t vs US$108.3/t
Other:
Cobalt LME 3m US$44,180/t vs US$42,725/t
NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$71,244/t vs US$72,473/t
Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$10,332/t vs US$10,313/t
China Spodumene Li2O 6%min CIF US$860/t vs US$835/t
Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,015/t vs US$1,015/t
China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$623/mtu vs US$623/mtu
China Tantalum Concentrate 30% CIF US$93/lb vs US$93/mtu
China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$395/t vs US$395/t
Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% US$5.4/lb vs US$5.4/lb
Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% US$23.6/kg vs US$23.6/kg
China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$273/t vs US$273/t
US Titanium Dioxide TiO2 >98% US$2,961/t vs US$2,961/t
China Rutile Concentrate 95% TiO2 US$1,102/t vs US$1,101/t
Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$65.1/t vs US$65.1/t
Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$350.0/t vs US$352.5/t
Germanium China 99.99% US$3,075.0/kg vs US$3,075.0/kg
China Gallium 99.99% US$400.0/kg vs US$400.0/kg
EV & battery news
GM and LG Energy Solution win Battery Innovation of the Year for manganese-rich chemistry
- GM and LGES won “Battery Innovation of the Year” at The Battery Show North America for their lithium-manganese-rich (LMR) EV battery technology.
- The next-gen chemistry boosts range and energy density while cutting costs by reducing cobalt and nickel use.
- GM targets first commercial launch by 2028, initially for large SUVs and pickups including the Silverado EV and Escalade IQ.
- The partners aim to build a fully localised, self-sufficient supply chain by 2028.
BYD issues its largest vehicle recall due to battery-related safety risks
- The Chinese car maker will make its largest recall, with more than 115,000 Tang series and Yuan Pro vehicles produced between 2015 and 2022 to be recalled, due to design defects and battery-related safety risks, China’s market regulator said on Friday.
- An incorrectly installed seal has been found to let water into the battery reducing output power and prompting a fire safety risk.
Company news
Atlantic Lithium* (ALL LN) 9.8p, Mkt Cap £70m – Lithium-in-soil anomalies discovered within Agboville and Rubino Licences in the Ivory Coast
(Atlantic holds 100% of the Rubino and Agboville exploration licences in the Ivory Coast though its Khaleesi Resources subsidiary)
- Atlantic Lithium report the identification of pronounced lithium-in-soil anomalies within the Agboville and Rubino Licences in the Ivory Coast
- Further spodumene pegmatite occurrences are also seen in surface rock samples in geological mapping completed over the Rubino licence.
Conclusion: The identification of lithium-in-soil results in Phase 2 and Phase 3 soil sampling mark a potential step change in the scale of Atlantic’s future lithium resources.
*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Atlantic Lithium
Aura Energy* (AURA LN) 9.0p, Mt Cap £102m – MD resignation
- Andrew Grove tendered his resignation as MD and CEO with immediate effect.
- Andrew to continue to provide operational support during the transition period over the next six months.
- Philip Mitchel will transition from non executive chair to executive chair.
*SP Angel acts as Nomad to Aura Energy
Cobra Resources (COBR LN) 4.7p, Mkt Cap £42m – Update on metallurgical testwork
- Cobra, who are developing the Boland rare earths project in South Australia, report metallurgical results.
- The Company is currently aiming to maximise recoveries of REE within the Pidinga Formation via in-situ-leaching.
- Additionally, Cobra is exploring methods of producing pyrite as a by-product for the ionic clay treatment.
- Today Company reports that a larger ISR column recovered 66% HREO from a 55kg sample in 17 days at 3.88kg/t acid consumption.
- From a 175g sample of low-grade mineralisation, 2g of sulphuric acid was produced, below the optimal recovery conditions of pH 3.
- Management believes an oxidant could reduce or potentially eliminate the need for sulphuric acid.
- CEO Rupert Verco believes Boland is amenable to ISR with minimal sulphuric acid requirement.
GreenX Metals (GRX LN) 37p, Mkt cap £105m – 1940s report shows 728,000t of contained copper grading ~2.6% copper in part of Tannenberg project, Germany
- GreenX Metals report the discovery of a historic report which estimates a total contained copper content of 728,000t of contained copper in ore grading around 2.6% copper in part of the Tannenberg project area.
- The copper ore is estimated in the Kupferschiefer horizon which is also mined by KGHM in Poland.
- We would also look for the presence of some high-grade silver in this as mined in the top of the seam by KGHM.
- The estimate is based on a 1935-1938 National Socialist Government drilling campaign across four zones at Ronshausen, Hönebach, Wolfsberg and Schnepfenbusch.
- Drilling in 1984 by St Joe Exploration GmbH is seen as further validating the 1940s estimate
- St Joe Exploration drilled just 28% of the Ronshausen zone but picked up by-product silver from up to 3.45m thick mineralisation straddling the Kupferschiefer and the limestone hanging wall and sandstone footwall above and below the Kupferschiefer.
- “1984 historical estimate shows consistent grades of 2.1% copper plus 25 g/t silver with 169,000 tonnes of contained copper and 6.5 million ounces of silver”
- Further, thicker widths of copper and silver mineralisation may exist up to 30m above and 60m below the Kupferschiefer in the limestone hanging wall and sandstone footwall at Ronshausen
- This is consistent with mineralisation seen at KGHM in Poland and on the same geological structure as Tannenberg.
- GreenX are currently relogging and resampling >4km of archived core from 47 holes to upgrade historical data and are digitising further historic data.
- The team plan to twin drill to verify the historical estimates and to estimate a new JORC resource
Conclusion: This is great news for GreenX and we look forward to the results of the comparison of modern drilling and assaying against the 1940s records.
Kavango Resources* (KAV LN) 1.07p, Mkt Cap £39m – MRE delivers 20koz at Nightshift, open pit mining planned
- Kavango Resources has announced a JORC MRE for the Nightshift Prospect in Zimbabwe
- Nightshift MRE:
- 421kt at 0.78g/t Au for 11koz Au Indicated
- 273kt at 0.98g/t Au for 9koz Au inferred
- 694kt at 0.86g/t Au for 20koz Au total
- Drilling at Nightshift covered a 25m x 25m grid over 50m vertical depth and accounted for 15% of the prospect’s footprint.
- The MRE is focused on resource definition drilling over a section of the deposit ‘that could be brought into production immediately.’
- Kavango’s management consider Nightshift prospective for open-pit gold production ‘expected to deliver high ore tonnes per vertical metre.’
- Management suggests the system is open at depth and majority of the strike.
- Kavango is looking to begin selective open-pit mining in 1H26, after close-spaced grade control drilling.
- Additional exploration along strike and at depth is planned to dest the underground potential of the deposit.
- Kavango is now considering building an upgraded 300tpd processing plant at Bill’s Luck, which lies 800m to the east of Nightshift.
*An SP Angel Analyst holds shares in Kavango
Kodal Minerals* (KOD LN) 0.32p, Mkt Cap £66m – Kodal sends first trucks of spodumene concentrate to Ivory Coast border for onward trucking to port
(Hainan Mining holds a 51% stake in KMUK which holds the Bougouni Lithium Project in Mali with Kodal holding 49%. Mali will hold 35% of the jv company with KMUK)
(Kodal Minerals Plc now, effectively, hold 49% of 65% of the Bougouni project with Mali holding 35% through LMLB and 65% of LMLB held by the Kodal jv with Hainan Mining within KMUK)
- Kodal Minerals reports the loading and departure of the first trucks of spodumene concentrate from its Bougouni lithium mine in Mali.
- The trucks will cross into the Ivory Coast and then drive to the port of San Pedro before shipping material to China.
- Management are focussed on the shipping of an initial 30,000t spodumene concentrate from the stockpile at Bougouni over the next 4-6 weeks
- Further stock will be trucked to build a stockpile at the San Pedro port.
- First revenue is expected on completion of ship loading at San Pedro with an initial 30,000t shipment due to be loaded.
- Security: A number of terrorist attacks in Mali has increased with the JNIM ‘Jama’at Nasrat al Islam wal Muslimeen’ launching a series of simultaneous attacked on 1st July across Western Mali. We believe their attacks killed around 450 people this year in the west and the south of Mali according to the Africa Center for Strategic Studies.
Conclusion: Kodal has successfully demonstrated that mining companies which negotiate proactively with the Mali junta can operate with their support and protection.
*SP Angel acts as financial advisor and broker to Kodal Minerals.
Larvotto Resources (LRV AU) A$1.3, Mkt Cap A$666m – Non-binding offer from United States Antimony Corp
- Gold/antimony producer Larvotto has received non-binding indicative offer from United States Antimony Corp.
- The offer suggested 6 USAC shares for every 100 Larvott shares, representing a A$1.4/share price for Larvotto.
- USAC acquired a 10% shareholding in Larvotto on Friday.
- Larvotto is considering its options.
- USAC holds the Thompson Falls antimony smelter in Montana (15klbpa of antimony oxide) among other exploration and development projects.
- Larvotto is currently upgrading the Hillgrove plant for the production of 40.5kozpa gold and 4.9ktpa antimony.
- Hillgrove holds 636koz AuEq at 6.6g/t AuEq in reserves.
- After Tax NPV8 of A$694m and IRR at 102% using US$2,850/oz Au and US$41k/t Antimony.
Pallas Resources* (PRIVATE)– Supergene copper mineralisation identified along trend from Dzhezkazgan
- Private copper explorer Pallas have reported an update from their Satpayev and Dzhezkazgan East Projects in Kazakhstan.
- The assets lie 3km east of the Dzhezkazgan deposit, which has reported 2bnt at 1.1% Cu for 22mt contained.
- Management has been conducting a 4,800m aircore-equivalent drilling programme to test for shallow mineralisation along trend from the Dzhezkazgan mineralised contact.
- This has intercepted copper oxide and native coper from 16m, with several holes returning tens of metres.
- Mineralised footprint extends over 400m x 150m, with pXRF assays returning >3% Cu in some sections, with various readings over 5% Cu.
- Assay results expected within 2-3 weeks.
- The Company states that this ‘shallow zone is likely to be relatively localised in its own right,’ however they suggest potential for more ‘significant primary copper system beneath the weathered horizon.’
- Management is focusing on finding the primary source of mineralisation at depth, with diamond or RC drilling expected.
*SP Angel analysts hold shares in Pallas
Strategic Minerals* (SML LN) 1.1p, Mkt Cap £21m – Redmoor drilling update
- The Company released an update on the ongoing drilling programme at the Redmoor Tungsten-Tin-Copper Project, east Cornwall.
- Three new drill holes completed (CRD036–CRD038) since the last update in September.
- All intersected the full thickness of the Redmoor sheeted vein system (SVS), with visible tungsten (wolframite), tin (cassiterite), and copper (chalcopyrite) mineralisation.
- Hole #4 is halfway complete (CRD039), another commencing today (CRD040) and final hole (CRD041) planned from Pad 3.
- CRD037 successfully tested part of the 2019 Exploration Target (4-8mt @ 1.0-1.4% SnEq), confirming mineralisation consistent with the SVS and supporting potential resource expansion.
- Total ~3,662m drilled and logged to date, including previously reported high tungsten grades from CRD033.
- Metallurgical and process design studies initiated engaging TOMRA to test ore sorting amenability.
- 2025 drilling programme objectives include:
- Test 2019 Exploration Target for resource upside.
- Assess grade/geological continuity for future Indicated Resource upgrades.
- Twin 1980s South West Minerals holes to validate historical data for inclusion in updated MRE.
- Explore mineralisation outside known SVS zones.
- Updated mineral resource expected 1Q26, incorporating latest drilling and met testwork.
- Current MRE stands at 11.7mt at 1.17% SnEq or 0.82% WO3Eq (0.56% WO3, 0.16% Sn, 0.50% Cu).
Conclusion: Ongoing drilling programme is delivering on 2025 objectives with latest round of holes returning mineralised tungsten/tin/copper intersections (final assays pending). CRD037 intersected mineralisation in the 2019 Exploration Target area boding well for a potential resource growth. MRE update is targeted for 1Q26.
*SP Angel acts as Nomad and broker to Strategic Minerals. An SP Angel analyst recently visited the Redmoor site.
Tertiary Minerals* (TYM LN) 0.075p, Mkt Cap £3.7m – Placing to extend drilling at Mushima North
- Tertiary has raised £100k via a placing to support exploration at Mushima North.
- The Company has conducted a placing to significant shareholder Stuart Packwood.
- The placing was issued at 0.065p/share, with Mr Packwood increasing his holding in TYM to 9.1%.
- Funds will be used to progress drilling at A1 on the Mushima North Prospect, where encouraging silver and copper grades have been intersected.
- Additional drilling will now be completd with the funds, to extend known mineralisation at A1 along strike and at depth.
- Focus will be on drilling in the north, where the Company intercepted 0.73% Cu and 124g/t Ag.
*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Tertiary Minerals
LSE Group Starmine awards for 2025 / 2024 commodity forecasting:
No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls for Q1 2025
No.1 in Precious Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 1. ranking for Precious Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024
No.2 in Base Metals: SP Angel mining team awarded No 2. ranking for Base Metals forecasting in LSEG Annual Starmine Award for Reuters Polls 2024
Analysts
John Meyer –John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490
Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484
Sergey Raevskiy –Sergey.Raevskiy@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0474
Arthur Parish – Arthur.Parish@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0476
Sales
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Grant Barker – Grant.Barker@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0471
George Krokos – george.krokos@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0486
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+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.
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