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Sports Mole previews Friday’s ATP Finals round-robin match between Jannik Sinner and Ben Shelton, including predictions, head-to-head and their tournament so far.
Ben Shelton seeks to end his Jannik Sinner hoodoo in Friday’s final round-robin match in the Bjorn Borg Group, aiming to avoid going 0-3 at his maiden ATP World Tour Finals.
The American No. 1 lost his first-set lead to lose to Felix Auger-Aliassime, while the home favourite was clutch on Alexander Zverev’s break-point chances to beat the German 6-4, 6-3 to reach the last four in Turin for the third year running.
Match preview
Twenty-seven wins on indoor hard courts became 28 on Wednesday as Sinner defeated Zverev for the third time in 17 days to reach the last four in Turin.
Entering the second round-robin encounter on a six-match winning streak, the 2024 Finals champion claimed a seventh to improve to 12-3 overall at the year-end event, further highlighting his superiority over most players on the tour.
The 23-time ATP champion needed to play decisive tennis on some big points, especially when Zverev created seven chances to break the Italian; however, the home favourite found first serves each time to snuff out the German No. 1’s opportunities.
Now holding a 6-4 lead over the world No. 3, having previously trailed 4-1, Sinner’s latest win was his fifth in a row against the experienced 28-year-old, a two-time champion at the year-end tournament.
With Sinner’s place in the semis now assured, it remains to be seen if he eases up against Friday’s opponent, against whom he enjoys a dominant record in the last two years.
Entering the final round-robin contest on a prolonged losing run against the Italian, Shelton aims to avoid losing all three matches on his debut in Turin.
Having lost a tight tie-break against Zverev in his debut match, the American No. 1 then dropped sets two and three against Auger-Aliassime on Wednesday to suffer an early exit at the year-end event.
Despite the disappointment of falling in both matches, the 23-year-old has given a strong account of himself in both defeats, even if he now faces the uphill challenge of halting the home favourite’s surge towards consecutive titles.
Having failed to take a set off the Italian star in seven matches in a row, Shelton will hope for a dip in performance to stand a chance against the Italian superstar, who has won all three meetings in 2025, most recently in Paris earlier this month.
Aiming to improve his commendable 40-23 record this season, ‘Box Office Ben’ may not match his 42 wins from 2024, but hitting 40 wins in consecutive years is undoubtedly commendable for the world No. 5.
Tournament so far
Jannik Sinner:
Round Robin: vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime 7-5 6-1
Round Robin: vs. Alexander Zverev 6-4 6-3
Ben Shelton:
Round Robin: vs. Alexander Zverev 3-6 6-7[6]
Round Robin: vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime 6-4 6-7(7) 5-7
Head To Head
Paris Masters (2025) – Quarter-final: Sinner 6-3 6-3
Wimbledon (2025) – Quarter-final: Sinner 7-6(2) 6-4 6-4
Australian Open (2025) – Semi-final: Sinner 7-6(2) 6-2 6-2
Shanghai Masters (2024) – Round of 16: Sinner 6-4 7-6(1)
Wimbledon (2024) – Fourth round: Sinner 6-2 6-4 7-6(9)
Indian Wells (2024) – Round of 16: Sinner 7-6(4) 6-1
Vienna (2023) – Round of 32: Sinner 7-6(2) 7-5
Shanghai Masters (2023) – Round of 16: Shelton 2-6 6-3 7-6(5)
Since beating Sinner in Shanghai two years ago, Shelton has lost seven in a row against the Italian, failing to take a set off the world No. 2 in that period.
Two of their meetings have been on indoor hard courts — Vienna in 2023 and Paris recently — both won by the 23-time ATP titleholder.
With Shelton on a four-match losing run against top-10 opponents (2-9 in 2025), Sinner is the undeniable favourite to win their ninth meeting on the ATP Tour.
We say: Sinner to win in two sets
Besides Carlos Alcaraz, Sinner is expected to defeat any top-10 opponent he faces, unless injured.
While there might be an opening for Shelton to take advantage of any dip in performance, the home favourite is not expected to lose any focus on Friday, thereby extending his winning streak in Turin to hold a 3-0 record entering the semis.
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