Steve Tandy should consider making a few changes ahead of facing the All Blacks
Steve Tandy, the Wales head coach, has a lot of thinking to do(Image: 2025 Getty Images)
Wales face one of the toughest tasks in the game this weekend when they take on an angry New Zealand side who saw their grand slam hopes go up in flames against England at the Allianz Stadium.
Steve Tandy’s side got out of jail against Japan with a last-gasp Jarrod Evans penalty sealing a fortuitous 24-23 win. Wales will be relieved to have secured the first victory of the Tandy era but aware a repeat of the performance put in against Japan will result in a heavy defeat against the All Blacks.
Here the changes I believe Tandy should consider making against New Zealand.
Back-three reshuffle
It is quite possible Josh Adams will get a short ban for his red card in Wales’ narrow victory over Japan on Saturday. Adams saw red when he needlessly charged into a ruck on the stroke of half-time with his shoulder making contact with the head of Japan’s Kippei Ishida.
The experienced wing put his team under a lot of pressure as a result. Even if Adams is available there is an argument Wales should shake up the back-three. Sign up to Inside Welsh rugby on Substack to get exclusive news stories and insight from behind the scenes in Welsh rugby.
Yet again on Saturday Wales struggled aerially, with full-back Blair Murray exposed in the air for the second week running.
Murray is a very potent attacking player and would be better suited out the wing in my opinion, with Louis Rees-Zammit also out wide.
Tom Rogers’ prowess in the air is a big strength of his game and the 26-year-old should start at full-back.
Is the midfield working?
Wales’ attack looked more potent than it has for a while against Argentina but they took a few steps backwards on Saturday.
At one stage Japan were down to 13 men, yet Wales could not find a way to get over the whitewash which isn’t good enough at this level.
It must be noted Tandy is starting from scratch so there is an argument for sticking with the same midfield of Ben Thomas and Max Llewellyn for the sake of continuity.
But neither player was effective enough against Japan and if Wales are going to stand any chance of causing the All Blacks any problems they need more punch in midfield.
A centre partnership of Joe Hawkins and Nick Tompkins would be a good way to go about things this Saturday.
Joe Hawins in action for Wales against Italy in 2023(Image: Ben Evans/Huw Evans Agency)
Hawkins, who has been playing outside-half for the Scarlets, could fulfil the role of the second playmaker outside Dan Edwards.
One of the best performances from an inside centre for Wales in recent years came from him during the 39-34 defeat to Australia in 2022.
In Wayne Pivac’s final game in charge Hawkins tore the Wallabies defence apart with his ability to take the ball to the line either through carrying or putting others into space.
Hawkins is also a more physical player than Thomas with a big boot. It would be tempting to partner Hawkins with Louie Hennessey but there is a need for experience.
Tompkins has been outstanding for Saracens this season and made a decent impact as a replacement against Japan.
Time to unleash Morgan Morse
It would arguably be reckless to throw an uncapped 20-year-old into a back row already short of experience against a hurting All Blacks side. But the reality is – barring a miracle of biblical proportions – Wales aren’t going to beat New Zealand in Cardiff this weekend.
This Test match is as much about looking to the future as the here and now.
Morgan Morse is the future and is the best prospect in Welsh rugby, bar none. Join WalesOnline Rugby’s WhatsApp Channel here to get the breaking news sent straight to your phone for free
The Ospreys backrower is an X-factor player capable of big moments which can swing the result in his side’s favour.
He is an explosive carrier who is as comfortable trucking it up the middle as he is in the wide channels, has a tremendous offloading game, is efficient in the lineout and very effective at the breakdown.
Morgan Morse in Wales training(Image: Chris Fairweather/Huw Evans Agency)
Alex Mann was arguably Wales’ best player against Japan so the Cardiff backrower should be retained in the number seven shirt.
Olly Cracknell was the official player of the match last weekend and should be moved to blindside flanker.
Throughout what has been a very difficult 18 months for all involved, Aaron Wainwright has been one of Wales’ better players but he was not at his best against Japan.
Tandy needs a fully fit and firing Wainwright but I’d use him as an impact player.
The need for a different dimension at lock
Both Adam Beard and Dafydd Jenkins are workhorses who are heavily respected throughout the game.
Warren Gatland was a huge fan of Beard and there is a reason he was signed by big spending French outfit Montpellier. Jenkins is always somewhere near the top of the charts when it comes to key statistics and made a whooping 21 tackles against Japan.
But are Jenkins and Beard too similar?
Possibly.
This is not to put either player down because they both have big roles to play for Wales moving forward but the balance is arguably not right.
Ideally Wales need a bit more dynamism from at least one of the locks, especially when it comes to carrying. Get the latest breaking Welsh rugby news stories sent straight to your inbox with our FREE daily newsletter. Sign up here.
Another thing to consider is both Jenkins and Beard will be unavailable to take on South Africa because the game falls outside of the international window.
Freddie Thomas, Ben Carter, Rhys Davies and James Fender are the other second-row options in the squad.
Abrasive Ospreys lock Davies deserves a chance to start, for me.
He is not a prolific carrier but he makes a lot of tackles, with many of them crucially dominant, while he has a habit of getting under the opposition’s skin.
Pick the form tighthead
Keiron Assiratti has been the form tighthead for Wales this autumn.
The 28-year-old impressed against Argentina, offering himself as a carrier while his tip on passes at the point of contact showcased his handling skills.
Assiratti also put in 15 tackles against the Pumas which is very respectable for a tighthead prop.
The Cardiff tighthead also played a pivotal role in Wales snatching victory from the jaws of defeat against Japan.
He was very destructive at the scrum, taking the Japan set-piece apart on a couple of occasions while he was also good around the park.
Assiratti should be in line to start, with Bath’s Archie Griffin used as an impact player off the bench.
Steffan Thomas’ Wales XV to take on New Zealand: Tom Rogers; Louis Rees-Zammit, Nick Tompkins, Joe Hawkins, Blair Murray; Dan Edwards, Tomos Williams; Nicky Smith, Dewi Lake (captain), Keiron Assiratti, Dafydd Jenkins, Rhys Davies, Olly Cracknell, Alex Mann, Morgan Morse. Replacements: Liam Belcher, Rhys Carré, Archie Griffin, Freddie Thomas, Aaron Wainwright, Kieran Hardy, Jarrod Evans, Louie Hennessey.
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