And should Pogacar decide against targeting Italy, Moser believes the Giro could still become complicated, warning that “if Pogacar skips the Giro, then the Mexican will appear. If anyone is lean and supple, it is Isaac Del Toro. Also a difficult customer for Evenepoel.”
Pogacar the “frightening beast” and a Tour ceiling for Evenepoel
For Moser, the central problem remains the same: the Tour de France and the presence of Pogacar. His view is stark. In the high mountains, he believes Evenepoel is outgunned, arguing that “uphill he runs into Tadej Pogacar. He cannot beat him. If he did not encounter that frightening beast, then winning the Tour would be possible for him. Without Pogacar, the entire cycling world would look different.”
The Italian goes even further, drawing a direct line between body type and outcome over three weeks. “As long as the Slovenian is there, Evenepoel will not win the Tour. The core of the problem is that your compatriot is not a climber. He does not have the right physique. In one-day races he can hide that weakness and, on a top day, match the best — not across a chain of mountain stages.”
That judgement is rooted in his own experience of fighting against gravity. Comparing himself to Evenepoel, Moser admits, “I had the same problem. I could limit the damage uphill but always had to overcompensate because of my heavy weight. Evenepoel is lighter but, for his height, has a fairly heavy build. He can grit his teeth for three consecutive days, but on day four the accumulated fatigue hits him hard. The strength suddenly drains away.”
Heavy build, thick bones – and limits you cannot train away
Asked whether Evenepoel’s powerful build, and particularly his legs, could be part of the limitation, Moser does not hesitate. “Exactly. And how do you change that? I had a good friend in my day who weighed and measured me every time he visited and put the numbers into tables. He constantly nagged me about my heavy legs: ‘You need to torture your thighs even more, that weight must come off urgently’.”
The reality, he says, is that some things cannot be fully reshaped through marginal gains alone. “Whatever I did on the home trainer, it did not help. Until X-rays showed I had exceptionally thick bone structure. That also had an advantage: I crashed as often as other riders but never broke a bone — not even the smallest one. Unfortunately, the same cannot be said for Evenepoel.”
This is why Moser views the Belgian’s Grand Tour prospects through a physiological lens as much as a tactical one. The problem is not a lack of work ethic or commitment; it is the accumulation of fatigue in the final days of multi-mountain blocks – and the fact that, in his eyes, Pogacar sets a standard Evenepoel “cannot beat” across that terrain.
“Beastly strong” and “an aeroplane” – why Moser still admires Evenepoel
None of this means Moser underestimates Evenepoel. On the contrary, his admiration for the Belgian’s raw power and position is absolute. Assessing his time trial style, he insists, “You mean Remco Evenepoel. It goes without saying that he is an aerodynamic prodigy, but he is above all strong. Beastly strong.”
He then places Evenepoel at the very top of the aero hierarchy, describing him as “an aeroplane — a Concorde type” before underlining that “indeed, his position is perfection. I am an admirer.” That combination of power and aerodynamics, Moser believes, is what opens doors in other areas where the terrain and format may suit him more.
Sanremo blueprint and the need to avoid “blunting” explosiveness
One such opportunity is Milan0–Sanremo, where Evenepoel has never yet started but is now considering. Moser believes the Belgian must treat it as a precision strike. On the one hand, he acknowledges the speed deficit in a drag race with Mathieu van der Poel, warning that “to win on Via Roma he needs speed. Evenepoel is faster than you think but not fast enough to beat Van der Poel in a sprint. But never say never. It is worth trying — with a sharp attack on the Poggio, as Merckx once did.”
Moser also offers a warning shot to Pogacar and Evenepoel alike about burning matches too early in the finale, insisting that “Pogacar also makes the mistake of attacking too early. Attacking on the Cipressa and continuing blunts explosiveness.” His prescription for Evenepoel is clear: “Evenepoel absolutely has to participate. Hide until the Cipressa, follow, and slip away secretly Cancellara-style on the Corso Cavallotti. A sprint-time-trial on the flat — that is where his chance lies.”
Hour record: huge gears, “exceptional coefficient of drag” – and one big weaknessIf there is one arena where Moser believes Evenepoel looks almost tailor-made, it is the hour record. On the balance of attributes, the Italian sees him as the standout challenger. “On paper yes. Have you seen his huge gears? Add to that his exceptional coefficient of drag. He beats Ganna time after time in time trials, although I find the Italian has looked poor recently. Evenepoel certainly has excellent assets, but one disadvantage.”
That single disadvantage, in Moser’s eyes, is decisive: “He has no track experience. Ganna, like Wiggins, grew up on the track. That typical fluent pedalling rhythm and cornering are ingrained. Keeping the ideal line — they can do it blindfolded. Evenepoel is behind in that.”
Whether that gap needs to be closed through racing or smart preparation is, he says, open to debate. “It could help, but it is not necessary. The alternative is a carefully planned, long preparation — count on two months. In Grenchen, where Ganna rode 56.7 on a low-altitude track, it will be extremely difficult.”
For Moser, the path runs through altitude and smart scheduling: “Aguascalientes offers a solution. Other high-altitude velodromes in Mexico have disappeared. Above all he must not rush. Choose a quieter autumn period in which his attempt attracts full attention. Do not do it like Ganna, who chose the day of Il Lombardia — a huge publicity mistake.”
From Tour ambitions blocked by Pogacar, to a Giro potentially complicated by Vingegaard and Del Toro, through to Monuments and the hour record, Moser’s verdict is nuanced but relentless: Evenepoel is “beastly strong” and “an aeroplane”, yet biology, rivals and calendar choices could decide whether the new Red Bull leader ever truly claims the biggest Grand Tour prizes.