If the inaugural Nations Championship final was staged later this month – rather than in November 2026 as scheduled – there’s a good chance the Springboks and England would compete for the title.
Rassie Erasmus’ charges have won 10 of their 12 Tests in 2025, and will go into their remaining fixtures against Ireland and Wales as favourites. Steve Borthwick’s England are yet to win a major trophy, but should add an 11th consecutive win to their tally when they host Argentina this weekend.
Borthwick has played down comparisons between England and the world champions, given that most of the South African players and coaches have been together for the better part of eight years and have won everything there is to win on the international stage. Yet there’s evidence to suggest those comparisons are justified.
While Erasmus has added another layer to his Bomb Squad strategy, Borthwick has equipped “the Pom Squad” with the means to dominate opponents in the all-important fourth quarter, and clinch big matches.
Erasmus has spent the past seven years perfecting his bench strategy, having quickly raised fitness levels and developed vast depth across his forward pack. The Bomb Squad was born and six-two, or even seven-one, bench splits became commonplace.
In recent months, Erasmus has upped the ante, unleashing 6ft 4ins, 116kg juggernaut Andre Esterhuizen – who has played nearly all his senior rugby at centre – as a back-row replacement. Opposition teams wouldn’t know whether the giant hybrid would play, or how the Boks intended to use him. Assistant coach Daan Human has confirmed, with Esterhuizen in tow, a four-four split is also an option.
England have opted for a six-two bench in all nine fixtures against Tier One opposition this year, and while they don’t yet possess a player of Esterhuizen’s unique skillset, they do boast versatile forwards such as Ben Earl and Henry Pollock who can shift to the backs when required.
England have developed into the most complete team in the northern hemisphere. They aren’t at South Africa’s level just yet, but the numbers show they are very much in the conversation, and full value for the Pom Squad moniker.
England are arguably the most improved Test side on show this month, particularly when it comes to the all-important fourth quarter of matches.
The following graphics are limited to matches between Tier One nations, to ensure stats aren’t skewed by one-sided routs – such as South Africa’s 55-10 win against Georgia, Scotland’s 85-0 hammering of the USA or Ireland’s 106-7 massacre of Portugal.
In doing so, interesting patterns emerge.
The Boks and England have followed a similar trend: starting slowly before shifting through the gears in the final quarter. Both teams have scored approximately a third of their points during the last 20 minutes.
While the numbers highlight the attacking success of the respective teams, more should be read into the points difference in the fourth quarter. This provides a clearer idea of who has controlled the most important part of the contest.
Looking at the average points difference across all matches involving two Tier One outfits, it’s interesting to note the Boks, England and New Zealand are the only teams on the positive side of the ledger.
South Africa have averaged 12 points scored and six conceded in the fourth quarter, while England have averaged 11 for and five against. It would be fair to conclude the Bok attack has been slightly more potent than England’s in this period, and Borthwick’s side have been more miserly in defence.
While the margins are slim, the try-scoring stats support this argument. The Boks have averaged more tries in the fourth quarter (1.7) than any other Tier One team, while England – along with the All Blacks – have conceded the fewest on average (0.8).
There are specific performances, of course, that highlight the superiority of these teams.
The Boks put 21 unanswered points past the All Blacks in the final quarter of the game staged in Wellington, en route to a record-breaking 43-10 win. More recently, they won the fourth quarter 19-0 in Paris and 12-5 in Turin.
England’s most recent 8-7 fourth-quarter victory against New Zealand was a statement, and marked the first time they had conceded any points to a Tier One nation in this period since the final Six Nations match in Cardiff, when they won the final 20 minutes 28-7 against Wales.
So who would win the battle of the benches if South Africa and England played this weekend: the Bomb Squad or the Pom Squad?
The Boks have had the edge over England in recent matches, winning the fourth quarter 13-0 in the 2023 World Cup semi-final, and 7-0 at Twickenham last year.
England have come a long way since then, but so too have the Boks.
After a lacklustre performance against Italy in July, and fourth-quarter woes in defeats by Australia and New Zealand a month later, South Africa have won the final 20 minutes six times in seven matches.
The late lapse against the Pumas in London cost them 14 points, yet they still managed to win 29-27 and clinch the Rugby Championship title.
South Africa have suffered early red cards in their past two matches against France and Italy, yet hit back to win both Tests comfortably. What might they achieve if they keep 15 men on the pitch for the full 80 minutes, and if their Bomb Squad detonates as planned?
We may have that answer in Dublin this Saturday, when the Boks line up against Ireland. They haven’t won at the Aviva Stadium since 2012 and have beaten the Irish just once in five attempts.
While Andy Farrell’s side claimed a record-breaking 46-19 win against Australia recently – and outscored he Wallabies 22-5 in the last 20 minutes – they have been trending in the wrong direction for some time. Their attack hasn’t been as successful in 2025, and their defence – particularly in the fourth quarter – has been vulnerable.
A more balanced Bok side which leads the fourth-quarter statistics for points and tries scored will have every reason to feel confident a monumental result is within reach.