Ukraine has managed to step back from the brink of another Trump-fuelled crisis. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio emerged from talks on Sunday calling it “probably the most productive day we have had on this issue, maybe in the entirety of our engagement.”
And yet, cut through the diplo-PR and Ukraine, while perhaps in a slightly stronger position than it was when it received the 28-point “peace plan” on Friday, is arguably weaker than it was before we knew of the document’s existence.
Just last week Kyiv openly announced it had fired US-made long-range ATACMS missiles at Russia. New US sanctions on Russia’s biggest oil giants took effect. And the US agreed to sell Ukraine an upgrade package for its patriot missile-defence system.
Now, instead of discussing Ukraine’s battlefield needs with allies, or shoring up his domestic position, after a massive corruption scandal, Zelensky is reduced, once again, to playing along with Washington’s spin (he called the talks “substantive”), while re-explaining what exactly he is fighting for.
“Putin wants legal recognition to what he has stolen, to break the principle of territorial integrity and sovereignty,” Zelensky told the Swedish parliament in a virtual address Monday morning. “That’s the main problem.”
And Europe, seemingly also blindsided by this peace plan, has failed to coalesce around an alternative. Several versions of a European counterproposal were floating around on Sunday, all of which removed (among other things) specific clauses on Ukrainian territorial concessions.
“It’s clear that this is exclusively designed so that Russia refuses,” wrote former Russian diplomat Boris Bondarev on X Monday.
“But there’s a risk that Moscow will shift the responsibility onto the Europeans, and tell Trump how incapable they are of negotiating, and the American plan is quite acceptable (with TINY, around 90% or so, little revisions. Just cosmetic changes, Donald, don’t worry.)”
“I don’t think anyone cares about Europe,” said Russian MP and journalist Evgeny Popov in written comments to CNN Monday. “I believe in Russia-US deal.”