Newcastle United threw away three points against Marseille in the Champions League on Tuesday night, and it could cost them a fair bit of money down the line.
Going into this week’s Champions League games, Newcastle United looked in a healthy position with nine points from four games.
How far do you expect Newcastle United to go in the Champions League this season?
However, despite leading in France at half time, the Magpies lost their lead immediately after the break and now will slip away from the top eight in the league table after the rest of the Champions League fixtures tonight.
Eddie Howe has admitted Newcastle are stretched due to competing on various fronts with a depleted squad. But, if they can’t pull it together from here on out and progress in the competition, they’ll be suffering financially.
Photo by Jose Breton/Pics Action/NurPhoto via Getty ImagesFinancial benefits of Champions League success
With the prospect of missing out on the Champions League knockout phase now a real possibility for Newcastle, Geordie Boot Boys spoke to our resident football finance expert Adam Williams about what this all means for the Magpies.
He said: “For what it’s worth, I think Newcastle United will get through, but let’s assume they either A) don’t finish in the top eight or B) somehow manage not to finish in the top 24. In that second scenario, they are probably going to only have taken another point or two, which is going to be worth about £1m in prize money.
“By contrast, if they win their three remaining games, they’ll pick up about £5.5m from UEFA, in addition to the flat participation fee and contributions from the value pillar, which is determined by club coefficients and the value of countries’ domestic TV deals. By my count, they are probably at around £40m in revenue from the Champions League this season.”
Newcastle’s last Champions League run ended in heartbreak, something they’re desperate to avoid now. If they can get through the league phase, it’ll deliver a nice financial boost, too.
Williams added: “If you finish in the top eight, you also get a bonus of about £1.85m, and that it in addition to a league ranking bonus of around £260,000 for every place you finish higher in the table – i.e., the difference between 8th and 18th is roughly £2.6m.
“Teams nine to 16 then get a qualification bonus of about £0.85m. So those are the rough figures we have to work backwards from.”
Photo by Serena Taylor/Newcastle United via Getty ImagesWhat happens if Newcastle United drop out of Champions League?
That’s the best case scenario, but what about the other side of the coin? If Newcastle were to finish outside the qualifying spots altogether, or fail in the play-offs, it could be a very expensive failure indeed.
On this, Williams added: “If you miss out on the last-16, that’s around £9.5m you lose. The quarter-finals, it’s another £11m, semi-finals £13m, final £16m, and the winner gets another £6m or so on top of that.
“So let’s say Newcastle, hypothetically, lose their last three games and don’t even make the play-offs. That would be about £10m lost in prize money, plus potentially up to £55m in available prize money for going all the way to the final. So we’re at a figure of about £65m – that is the opportunity cost.”
How much money Newcastle United can and will earn in the Champions League this season.
By qualifying: £15.7m
By winning a league stage game: £1.8m
By drawing a league stage game: £590,000
By reaching the last-16: £1.7m
By finishing 9-24th in the league stage: £840,000
By reaching the round of 16: £9.4m
By reaching the quarter-finals: £10.7m
By reaching the semi-finals: £12.9m
By reaching the final: £15.9m
By winning the competition: £21.5m.
That’s not all, with Williams stressing that even simple matchday revenue would be a big loss for the Magpies if this doesn’t go the way they hope.
He continued: “If they finished outside the top two-thirds, they are potentially missing out on up to another five matches at St James’ Park. That’s going to be the best part of £15m or more. Commercially, they would probably lose seven figures in bonuses, retail and so on.
“Beyond that, there is even the question of potentially the Club World Cup where the winner can get up to £85m, as well as the Super Cup, which is worth a few million.
“So at the low end, not qualifying for the knockouts could be worth, say, £15m. But at the high end of the spectrum in a dream scenario for Newcastle where they go on and win the tournament, it could be £165m-plus.”
Given Newcastle’s position with PSR (and the incoming Squad Cost Ratio rules), every bit of available revenue is massively important to building up headroom that they can then spend in the transfer market.
Newcastle aren’t given much chance of qualifying for the Champions League again for 2026/27, so they need to make the most of every opportunity they have this year.
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