In the autumn of 2024, in the run-up to the US presidential elections, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky presented then presidential candidate Donald Trump with his Victory Plan for Ukraine. Now, just a year later, President Trump has issued an ultimatum to Zelensky, demanding Kyiv accept a 28-point framework for Ukraine’s surrender to Russia.
Russia has been unable to force Ukraine to surrender after nearly twelve years of brutal war and genocide, but in less than a year in office, Trump is close to coercing Ukraine into accepting defeat through a pseudo ‘peace’ deal. This dramatic turn of events illustrates the radical transformation of the global security order since Trump’s return to power.
By backing the Kremlin’s demands to Ukraine – and Europe – with American pressure, the US administration is enabling Moscow to weaponise ‘peace’ against Ukraine. At its core, Trump’s proposal legitimises Russia’s unprovoked, illegal aggression. By rewarding the aggressor and punishing the victim – limiting its sovereignty, sacrificing its people to occupation and denying true security, justice and compensation – the US administration is pushing the world to the brink of collapse of the liberal, rules-based order.
Today, the fate of the liberal, rules-based order is forged on the battlefields in Ukraine as much as it is determined by the stance of Western nations. While Ukrainians have held the front line of the rules-based order through tenacious fighting and immense suffering, Western nations may abandon it without a fight. Any settlement to Russia’s war premised on a blatant disregard for international law will become a wrecking ball, destroying the remaining façade of the post-Second World War system.
Western Failure to Stop Russia has been Paving the Way for the ‘New Order’ of Unfreedom for Years
Trump’s 28-point list is emblematic of the West rapidly losing its leadership in world affairs to the ascendant authoritarian powers.
For the last eight decades, the West’s global influence has been premised on the strength and appeal of the liberal rules-based international order which allowed humankind to enjoy decades of unprecedented security, the universal spread of freedom and protection of human dignity and growing worldwide prosperity. It is now being dismantled before our eyes.
The tragedy of the West is not the result of military defeat but the inherent outcome of a long string of compromised policies which have emboldened authoritarian regimes. Rogue actors such as Russia, China and North Korea have capitalised on the lack of political will in Western nations to do what it takes to uphold the rules-based order.
Western policy towards Russia has suffered on all accounts. Western governments have generously financed the rise of Putin’s revanchist regime, even as they witnessed growing authoritarianism, militarisation and the explicit threat of Russia’s aggressive foreign policy.