After nearly four years of war, an estimated 1.5 million casualties, devastation and near-crippled economies on both sides, a resolution between Russia and Ukraine remains elusive.
The drive for the right mix of concessions and security guarantees will bring political and military leaders together for talks in Paris on Tuesday. Europeans officials are discussing a peace strategy they hope can win the backing of US President Donald Trump. On the front line, questions swirl on both sides about how they want the war to end.
Ukraine has signalled that it is willing to accept a ceasefire – a concession that includes losing a fifth of its territory – provided it receives firm security guarantees from America that will deter any future Russian attack. The bigger question is whether Moscow wants peace while its leaders believe there is a chance of more land being seized, even if it comes at a terrible cost.
Added into the mix is America’s more aggressive stance following its Venezuela operations and belligerent talk of annexing Greenland, which could well change geopolitical dynamics.
Corrosive effect of talks
Analysts told The National that discussing a truce demoralises Ukrainian troops as the thinking is “why go to the front line and be the last to die in the war?”
Orysia Lutsevych, head of the Ukraine forum at the Chatham House think tank, recently returned from the country where she found the peace process was having a corrosive effect. “A lot of people are asking, why should I volunteer? Why should I mobilise if maybe peace is around the corner?” she said. “This is part of Russia’s game to undermine Ukraine internally.”
Bob Seely, a former British Conservative MP who visits Ukraine frequently, argued that dragging out talks helps Moscow by making the Kremlin appear reasonable, while also sowing division between Europe and the US and buying it time in the ground war.
“These peace processes are also useful for the Russians because they demoralise the Ukrainian armed forces,” Mr Seely added. “If you can convince yourself that the war is ending in a month’s time, why die before armistice day?”
Delaying sanctions
But there is one country that could, almost on its own, bring the fighting to an end. While Mr Trump can be commended for driving forward a peace deal, experts argue that, if he were to impose hard “secondary sanctions” on Russian oil exports coupled with allowing Ukraine to use its long-range Tomahawk cruise missiles, Russian President Vladimir Putin would rapidly conclude negotiations.
“The elephant in the room is that the Americans and the Ukrainians can agree all they want, but unless Putin actually wants to stop invading Ukraine, I can’t see how it’s going to happen,” Mr Seely said. “The best you might end up with in 2026 is a temporary ceasefire.”
There is growing suspicion that the talks are merely part of the Kremlin’s procrastination strategy, stringing Washington along for as long as it can to delay harsher sanctions.
Lynette Nusbacher, a former military intelligence analyst, was direct about Moscow’s thinking on the negotiations. “Absolutely nothing has changed from a Russian point of view,” she said. “They made their demands in June 2024 and it is Trump’s responsibility to deliver Ukrainian acquiescence to those demands.”
Mr Seely suggests Washington’s optimism regarding a deal “may well be very misplaced”.
“The Russians are fundamentally trying to play a very clever game to ensure that the Americans don’t put on secondary sanctions, or those sanctions are delayed as long as possible and want to draw out these negotiations for as long as possible,” he said.
Drone warfare
Despite Moscow’s claims of victory – which it allegedly tried to strengthen by getting its soldiers to enter a town and take pictures of Russian flags before leaving quickly – its advances have come at great cost. The latest UK Ministry of Defence intelligence shows that, since it invaded in February 2022, Russia has suffered more than one million casualties, including an estimated 300,000 dead.
“The Russians repeatedly demonstrate that they are winning just scraps of territory in order to achieve a political victory based on non-existent military victory,” Ms Nusbacher said.
She argued that Ukraine could be viewed as winning tactically because it was forcing Russia into “the single most costly thing you can do in war, which is to attack a well-dug-in position and the Russians are paying a horrific price for it”.
As long as Ukraine continues to “exact that price, they are winning the war” unless they suffer a huge withdrawal of western support, particularly US intelligence help. “The Ukrainians are perfectly capable of continuing to achieve battlefield victory as long as the Russians keep on charging into their drones and guns,” she added.
It is a view shared by former army officer Ben Barry, a Russia expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies think tank. “The Russians still grind forward very slowly on enormous casualties,” he said.
The problem for Kyiv is not battlefield collapse, but manpower and time because, as Ms Nusbacher puts it, “as long as Putin keeps thinking he’s winning, and as long as Russian elites are unable to disagree with him, I don’t expect to see any change”. That is especially true with the “relentless” domestic messaging that success is inevitable.
Economy wobbles
Ms Lutsevych said Mr Putin “simply has to run out of money”, which would make it a struggle to get more recruits, forcing him to order an unpopular nationwide mobilisation.
While the Russian economy was “clearly under considerable pressure”, Mr Barry said, it had not yet cracked, showing a resilience that has likely led to Mr Putin’s refusal to compromise.
Lame ducks
Key to imposing those sanctions is what happens in the White House. “This current administration is just unwilling, for whatever reasons, to be tough on the Russians,” Mr Seely said.
But that could change as Mr Trump heads towards becoming a “lame duck” president, especially as Republicans are likely to lose control of the House or Senate in the autumn midterm elections.
“There is then the possibility that fairly broad American support for Ukraine might tend to push Trump towards a more traditional, adversarial approach to Russia,” Ms Nusbacher said.
What next?
To end the conflict, Ukraine would reluctantly agree to a ceasefire along the current front line, because its war-weary population accepts that “if you lost the battle, you lost the territory”, Ms Lutsevych said. “People would reconcile with that.”
The most optimistic scenario, Mr Barry said, would come when Mr Putin recognised that further battlefield gains were too costly. “Getting him to compromise could be accelerated by more American pressure is a possibility”, although there was little sign of that yet.
The experts’ overall outlook for 2026 was bleak, with Russia failing to win decisively but also not being forced to halt, while Ukraine was under immense strain. “In very simple terms, somebody will have to tell Putin that he cannot win militarily,” Ms Lutsevych said. “Until then peace will remain elusive.”
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Top financial tips for graduates
Araminta Robertson, of the Financially Mint blog, shares her financial advice for university leavers:
1. Build digital or technical skills: After graduation, people can find it extremely hard to find jobs. From programming to digital marketing, your early twenties are for building skills. Future employers will want people with tech skills.
2. Side hustle: At 16, I lived in a village and started teaching online, as well as doing work as a virtual assistant and marketer. There are six skills you can use online: translation; teaching; programming; digital marketing; design and writing. If you master two, you’ll always be able to make money.
3. Networking: Knowing how to make connections is extremely useful. Use LinkedIn to find people who have the job you want, connect and ask to meet for coffee. Ask how they did it and if they know anyone who can help you. I secured quite a few clients this way.
4. Pay yourself first: The minute you receive any income, put about 15 per cent aside into a savings account you won’t touch, to go towards your emergency fund or to start investing. I do 20 per cent. It helped me start saving immediately.
PROFILE OF HALAN
Started: November 2017
Founders: Mounir Nakhla, Ahmed Mohsen and Mohamed Aboulnaga
Based: Cairo, Egypt
Sector: transport and logistics
Size: 150 employees
Investment: approximately $8 million
Investors include: Singapore’s Battery Road Digital Holdings, Egypt’s Algebra Ventures, Uber co-founder and former CTO Oscar Salazar
Match info
Wolves 0
Arsenal 2 (Saka 43′, Lacazette 85′)
Man of the match: Shkodran Mustafi (Arsenal)
Company%20Profile
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Dubai Bling season three
Cast: Loujain Adada, Zeina Khoury, Farhana Bodi, Ebraheem Al Samadi, Mona Kattan, and couples Safa & Fahad Siddiqui and DJ Bliss & Danya Mohammed
Rating: 1/5
Champions League Last 16
Red Bull Salzburg (AUT) v Bayern Munich (GER)
Sporting Lisbon (POR) v Manchester City (ENG)
Benfica (POR) v Ajax (NED)
Chelsea (ENG) v Lille (FRA)
Atletico Madrid (ESP) v Manchester United (ENG)
Villarreal (ESP) v Juventus (ITA)
Inter Milan (ITA) v Liverpool (ENG)
Paris Saint-Germain v Real Madrid (ESP)
Tamkeen’s offering
- Option 1: 70% in year 1, 50% in year 2, 30% in year 3
- Option 2: 50% across three years
- Option 3: 30% across five years
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pocketsMost%20polluted%20cities%20in%20the%20Middle%20East
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
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‘The Batman’
Stars:Robert Pattinson
Director:Matt Reeves
Rating: 5/5
EA Sports FC 24
Profile of VoucherSkout
Date of launch: November 2016
Founder: David Tobias
Based: Jumeirah Lake Towers
Sector: Technology
Size: 18 employees
Stage: Embarking on a Series A round to raise $5 million in the first quarter of 2019 with a 20 per cent stake
Investors: Seed round was self-funded with “millions of dollars”
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANIGIANT REVIEW
Starring: Amir El-Masry, Pierce Brosnan
Director: Athale
Rating: 4/5
The%20specs
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Specs%3A%202024%20McLaren%20Artura%20Spider
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Islamophobia definition
A widely accepted definition was made by the All Party Parliamentary Group on British Muslims in 2019: “Islamophobia is rooted in racism and is a type of racism that targets expressions of Muslimness or perceived Muslimness.” It further defines it as “inciting hatred or violence against Muslims”.
Brief scores:
Toss: Sindhis, elected to field first
Kerala Knights 103-7 (10 ov)
Parnell 59 not out; Tambe 5-15
Sindhis 104-1 (7.4 ov)
Watson 50 not out, Devcich 49
The biog
Age: 46
Number of Children: Four
Hobby: Reading history books
Loves: Sports
Wonka
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Indoor Cricket World Cup Dubai 2017
Venue Insportz, Dubai; Admission Free
Fixtures – Open Men 2pm: India v New Zealand, Malaysia v UAE, Singapore v South Africa, Sri Lanka v England; 8pm: Australia v Singapore, India v Sri Lanka, England v Malaysia, New Zealand v South Africa
Fixtures – Open Women Noon: New Zealand v England, UAE v Australia; 6pm: England v South Africa, New Zealand v Australia
Profile of MoneyFellows
Founder: Ahmed Wadi
Launched: 2016
Employees: 76
Financing stage: Series A ($4 million)
Investors: Partech, Sawari Ventures, 500 Startups, Dubai Angel Investors, Phoenician Fund
COMPANY PROFILE
Company name: Blah
Started: 2018
Founder: Aliyah Al Abbar and Hend Al Marri
Based: Dubai
Industry: Technology and talent management
Initial investment: Dh20,000
Investors: Self-funded
Total customers: 40
The%20specs
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