Good Wednesday morning. This is Andrew McDonald. And yes, I was listening to Diana Ross at 3 a.m. and the title of this email does scan, OK.
DRIVING THE DAY
SPINNING AROUND: Keir Starmer has handed Kemi Badenoch some fresh ammunition for their weekly bout at PMQs if she wants to take it — in the form of another messily managed U-turn on a major policy championed just a few months back. The Labour hope is that moving to strike the mandatory element out of its digital ID plans will rescue the unpopular policy and prevent it from harming Starmer’s popularity any further when they start rolling it out. In the short term, however, another U-turn comes with the usual political and party-management hit Labour could do without. Especially as it gamely tries to talk about Northern Powerhouse Rail with the rest of its airtime today.
Though, as I often write … there’s every chance PMQs and the entire day will wind up instead being about any of the multitude of major foreign policy issues upending the world order, with things moving fast on many fronts. And indeed, your Playbook author was nervously watching for white smoke from the White House and actual smoke from Iran overnight, amid late-night jitters in Whitehall and across the pond that Donald Trump might have been preparing to launch strikes on Iran. It didn’t pan out in the end — but your author has the latest on the foreign policy front further down in this email.
SO BACK TO DIGITAL ID: Officials confirmed to Playbook and the rest of the lobby a top PoliticsHome scoop from Matilda Martin on Wednesday afternoon: The government is no longer looking to make digital IDs mandatory for workers. Instead they’ll be optional, in a major rollback from the original plan for IDs to be compulsory as part of right-to-work verifications. Workers will be given the choice of using other documents to verify their identities.
**A message from Google: Make that New Year digital resolution stick. The Family Link app helps you manage your child’s new device habits – no sweat. Personalise their device settings, view screen time, set daily limits, enable supervised experiences on YouTube, and more. Learn more.**
It’s been a long four months: Anyone with a half-decent memory will be able to recall the initial sell from Starmer and his ministers when they announced plans for compulsory digital IDs for all workers. Shortly before Labour Conference in September, Starmer put migration at the heart of his plans and said it would stop illegal migrants from being able to “slip into the shadow economy.”
At the time … the policy, popular in theory before the announcement, went down like a lead balloon. Subsequent polling showed that, with Starmer’s endorsement, digital IDs were suddenly unpopular. Some of that was likely just association with an unpopular government — but some of the ID cards’ staunchest proponents despaired at the way the government had tried to sell it as a compulsory instrument for cracking down on illegal migration, rather than an optional tool to make life easier. One digital ID advocate gloomily told Playbook at the time they were worried Starmer might have “killed the policy dead for a decade.”
Well, there we are: From talking to insiders last night, it’s clear that internal and external opposition had convinced the decision-makers that the policy as it stood wasn’t tenable. Multiple ministers across government pushed to drop the mandatory component, arguing this would shift the conversation around digital IDs to a lighter tone about making it easier to engage with public services — and curtail (some) anti-establishment noises about state control. Two people told Playbook that Josh Simons, the minister given responsibility for digital ID in a mini-reshuffle only last week, was among those pushing hard for the compulsory element to be scrapped.
Just one problem: It’s another U-turn in a government that has made loads of them — so many that lobby hacks writing it up last night arrived at different numbers when calculating the total number since Starmer came in. It’s a lot, basically … and our own Noah Keate will have to update his own rolling list. It was also a tad unfortunate the U-turn emerged in the hours after Wes Streeting strolled beyond his brief to tell the Institute for Government conference his party’s New Year’s resolution should be to “get it right first time”.
Coming attraction: Talking of the health secretary … Streeting is among the speakers billed at a Progress anniversary dinner tonight (invite only, soz). Will we get any more stakeholders chat or uncomfortable New Year resolutions?
Easiest job in politics: But first of all, there’s PMQs at noon — and Badenoch, Ed Davey and other opposition MPs on the list surely won’t resist the urge for a jab (and Streeting’s words offer an easily quotable attack). Davey’s Lib Dems had the best of the slim pickings last night with this from Cab Off spox Lisa Smart, who said “No. 10 must be bulk ordering motion sickness tablets at this rate to cope with all their U-turns.”
But more importantly than oppo quips … every U-turn adds to the impression Labour MPs (and the public) have about the current operation: namely that if they apply enough pressure to the so-called “tough decisions” the government often says it has to take, they can get it to drop them.
There is a pro-Starmer counterargument: And it was summed up well by the Times’ Steven Swinford, who said the prime minister was taking a “scrape the barnacles from the boat” approach to trimming unpopular policy from his agenda. Senior officials had talked of the need for a “fast start” in January to reset the narrative and stop the bleeding — and it appears the drumbeat of U-turns on tricky issues might have been part of that plan for the New Year.
So what’s the next barnacle? Some Labour MPs have eyed their next target, as the chancellor gets ready to announce a package of support for pubs in a U-turn from the budget. But Reeves is resisting pressure to go further and provide support for other hospitality companies. Labour MPs spy another opportunity to apply pressure. “I am tearing my hair out that we promised we’d level the playing field and now we’re making it harder for hospitality and the high street,” one Labour MP griped to Playbook.
Of course: You could argue the barnacle on the boat that should be tossed overboard could be the PM himself, as a Labour veteran snarked to the New Statesman’s Ailbhe Rea. And if you have a read of some of the anonymous cabinet minister quotes in this FT lobby team read on the PM’s predicament, you’ll be reminded that isn’t an isolated bit of snark, either.
FROM BOATS TO TRAINS: The government is otherwise moving into a comfort zone with its major move of the day: an overhaul of the railways in the north. Starmer has an op-ed in the Yorkshire Post bigging it up, but otherwise he’s leaving the selling to the cabinet ministers in charge.
Leveling up 2.0: In what one official described as a plan to mine the “untapped gold reserve” of the north, Rachel Reeves and Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander are setting out plans for the first phase of “Northern Powerhouse Rail” — a set of line upgrades and new links to be built in the 2030s. The hope, as it often is with transport policy, is to make train travel outside London a bit more like the capital by delivering “turn up and go trains,” as a second official put it.
No HS2 bat tunnels: Given how delivery of the last major rail project went, ministers are understandably keen to avoid a repeat. The Treasury is setting a funding cap of £45 billion for the whole project, and the plan is to build it in phases in the 2030s, with the improving of connections in Yorkshire first … then a new route between Liverpool and Manchester … and then better connections from Manchester to Yorkshire cities.
The bit being left deliberately vague: The plans only commit to a door being left ajar for a new line connecting Birmingham to Manchester as HS2, to be (theoretically) built once all other NPR work is complete. File that one under “unlikely.” Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham, who has a supportive quote in the Treasury’s overnight PR, is giving interviews later on.
The train conductors: Alexander is shortly on the morning media round and is then expected to make a statement to the Commons … while Reeves also has a busy day ahead. The chancellor is shortly on the BBC Breakfast sofa in Manchester at 8.15 a.m., followed by a tour of a rail facility in Manchester also this morning. She’ll then arrive in Leeds for another tour, this time at a rail depot, and then take questions from hacks in a mini press conference alongside Labour mayors at 2 p.m. She has sit-downs with the BBC and ITV planned too.
FOREIGN AFFAIRS
SHE’S NOT FINNISH, SHE’S ONLY 56: Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper is in Finland as she begins a short tour that will also take in Norway — all aimed at bolstering security in the region to deter Britain’s rivals from meddling in the High North with their shadow fleets. Cooper is going out on a Finnish Border Guard ship in the Baltic and meeting President Alexander Stubb and her counterpart Elina Valtonen. She’ll be speaking to POLITICO on her trip along with the BBC and the Mirror.
From Russia with no love: The tour and trip is partially aimed at Russia’s shadow fleet vessels, after reporting earlier in the week that British special forces were being lined up to storm such vessels. The FCDO said Cooper would be calling on NATO to step up its work in the Arctic to protect its interests in the region.
Protecting from … : Along with Russia, the overnight release says “other state actors are seeking to grow their sphere of influence” as climate change turns the Arctic into a “hotspot for geopolitical competition.” China, perhaps? Or just the U.S.?
Timing: Two shadow fleet vessels sanctioned by Britain are on course to sail into the Channel at lunchtime, the Times reports. What will the U.K. do?
As usual though … Cooper may well face questions from the traveling press on Iran, especially if anything develops during the day. Late last night Donald Trump told journalists he was due to be briefed on the death toll in Iran and that he would “act accordingly.” Asked how he would ensure any hypothetical U.S. air strikes would protect protestors, he said “so far, my track record has been excellent.” Trump is next due to speak to the press in the Oval Office at 7 p.m. U.K. time.
After Cooper’s Finnished: She’s off to Norway, where on Thursday she will visit Royal Marines doing a live training demo in the Arctic Circle amid all that talk about Greenland.
Speaking of which: Denmark and Greenland’s foreign ministers are due in the White House for talks with U.S. Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio later. And ICYMI, Greenland’s Energy Minister Naaja Nathanielsen was in parliament yesterday to tell MPs that her under-the-cosh country has “no intention of becoming American,” my colleague Abby Wallace writes. MPs must “dare to have principles” to defend NATO and international law, she said.
ALSO ABROAD: Defence Secretary John Healey is in Sweden to meet his counterpart Pål Jonson in the afternoon. They’re due to give a joint press conference afterwards.
ALSO ABROAD II: City Minister Lucy Rigby is in Brussels to meet European Financial Services Commissioner Maria Luís Albuquerque to talk up more opportunities for Britain and Europe to get closer — specifically on synchronizing U.K. and EU approaches to settling trades. Their meeting is at 12.15 p.m.
TODAY IN WESTMINSTER
WATCHING BRIEF: Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood is expected to receive the report from the police watchdog on West Midlands police chief Craig Guildford’s handling of the Aston Villa-Maccabi Tel Aviv match all the way back in September. If it’s as damning as expected, the Times and Telegraph have reported Mahmood could withdraw her support for Guildford … though, as the Tel points out today, the power to actually sack him lies with the police and crime commissioner for the region, Simon Foster.
Foster the people: And Foster doesn’t appear to be ready to leap into action. The Telegraph reports he also wants to assess the findings of the Home Affairs Committee’s investigation, not expected until later this month. The Home Office will come under a fair bit of pressure to do something if Guildford keeps his job.
AUSSIE RULES: The government appears to be moving slowly toward at least thinking seriously about an Australian-style ban of social media for under-16s, after Keir Starmer told his MPs Monday he is “concerned” about excessive smartphone usage among children. The FT reports that he said his government is looking at “different ways you can enforce it,” referring to Australia’s ban.
Plus: Wes Streeting, who signaled his support for a possible ban in December, has asked author and ban-advocate Jonathan Haidt to speak to his officials at an event in a few weeks, according to the Guardian’s Kiran Stacey.
DAYS SINCE STARMER LAST POSTED ON X: Six.
SUPER EMBASSY, SUPER BACKLASH: We’re still waiting for the formal confirmation from Keir Starmer that China’s super embassy in London can be built and it appears to be going ahead despite the rough reception Labour MPs gave it in a UQ yesterday. The Telegraph hears the White House is in a similar position to Labour MPs on the issue too — with a senior Trump administration official telling the paper the U.S “remains deeply concerned about adversaries exploiting the critical infrastructure of our closest allies.”
WIND OF CHANGE: Energy Secretary Ed Miliband will announce Britain’s biggest expansion of offshore wind farms as a Hail Mary attempt to reach his 2030 clean-power pledge, the Times’ Emily Gosden and Oliver Wright report.
MINISTER FIGHTS: The Mail’s Jason Groves has some fun scuttlebutt from angsty ministers about the influence of Attorney General Richard Hermer, who according to annoyed government sources is the only cabinet minister routinely invited up to the PM’s flat for political chats. Mirroring early 2020s era Tory gripes about the influence of Boris Johnson’s spouse, a source told Groves “things will get agreed with the PM in his office and then the attorney general goes up to the flat and the PM changes his mind.”
On that note: Showing the bromance is strong, Hermer addressed Tribune MPs last night to defend his pal in Downing Street. An MP present said the legal eagle “talked about Keir’s direction and the central principles of his work,” followed by a “good and thoughtful discussion.” That said, the AG was apparently “left in no uncertain terms that there were a number of areas that the group wants to see the government improve on.”
FIGHTING TALK: Business Secretary Peter Kyle is expected to tell business leaders that he wants the U.K. to go “toe to toe” with the U.S. on growth. In a pre-Davos keynote speech at Bloomberg HQ, Kyle will say that the government will be doing more to move the dial on growth in the coming days and weeks.
COURT CIRCULAR: The Crown Prosecution Service’s appeal of a decision to throw out the terrorism case against Kneecap rapper Liam Óg Ó hAnnaidh — better known as Mo Chara — will be heard at the Royal Courts of Justice from 10.30 a.m.
HOUSE OF COMMONS: Sits from 11.30 a.m. with Scotland questions … PMQs at noon … Labour MP Gareth Thomas’ 10-minute rule motion on banks … and a general debate on Ukraine. Conservative MP Martin Vickers has the adjournment debate on the future of the Lindsey Oil Refinery and the wider U.K. oil refining sector.
WESTMINSTER HALL: The Transport Committee grills Local Transport Minister Lilian Greenwood on the licensing of taxis and private hire vehicles (9.15 a.m.).
HOUSE OF LORDS: Sits from 3 p.m. with questions on the impact of investment in early years education on children’s long-term outcomes, the extent of large-scale waste crime, and discussions with the U.S. about possible future support by the Royal Navy and the Royal Air Force for U.S. boarding of sanctioned vessels … an urgent question repeat on delays to the awarding of the New Medium Helicopter contract … report stage day one of the Children’s Wellbeing and Schools Bill … and a statement on non-consensual sexual deepfakes on social media.
BEYOND THE M25
PLAID OF PLACE: Plaid Cymru has stormed ahead in a YouGov MRP poll for ITV Wales, which finds the party’s predicted vote share for the Senedd election is at 37 percent. Reform is in (a fairly distant) second place at 23 percent, followed by Green at 13, and Labour is tied with the Tories in fourth place with just 10 percent.
MAKING MENDS: Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has kicked off his trip to China — the first time a Canadian prime minister has been welcomed to the country in nearly a decade. Carney is there to try to open new economic doors with China in response to the “rupture” in relations with his bright orange neighbor, my Canadian colleague Mike Blanchfield writes.
DECLINED: Bill and Hillary Clinton have officially refused to testify in the U.S. House Oversight and Government Reform Committee’s investigation into convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein — defying subpoenas and risking being held in contempt of Congress. A letter from the Clintons’ attorneys to House Oversight Chair James Comer, obtained by my stateside colleagues, said the couple has already provided all the information they have regarding the late Epstein and his co-conspirator, Ghislaine Maxwell.
**A message from Google: The start of a new year – especially with new devices – can mean more free time becoming more screen time. The Family Link app helps you manage and monitor your family’s digital habits to choose a healthy balance that suits you and your child. View their screen time and set daily limits to make sure it’s balanced with other activities, set up supervised experiences on YouTube, and manage privacy settings. Family Link can even help you find age-appropriate apps and games, perfect for cosy indoor days or long journeys. Learn more.**
MEDIA ROUND
Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander broadcast round: Times Radio (7.05 a.m.) … Sky Mornings (7.15 a.m.) … LBC (7.50 a.m.) … 5Live (8.10 a.m.) … GMB (8.30 a.m.) … GB News (9.05 a.m.).
Shadow Foreign Secretary Priti Patel broadcast round: GMB (7.30 a.m.) … Times Radio (7.45 a.m.) … GB News (8 a.m.) … Talk (8.15 a.m.) … LBC (8.50 a.m.) … Sky Mornings (9.15 a.m.).
Also on BBC Breakfast: Chancellor Rachel Reeves (8.15 a.m.).
Also on Talk: Former Labour MP Simon Danczuk (7 a.m.) … Former British Ambassador to Iran Richard Dalton (7.15 a.m.) … Reform UK MP Sarah Pochin (8 a.m.).
Also on Times Radio Breakfast: Crossbench peer and Northern Powerhouse Partnership Chair Jim O’Neill (8.20 a.m.).
Also on Politics Live (BBC Two 11.15 p.m.): Business Secretary Peter Kyle … Shadow Transport Secretary Richard Holden … Labour MP Lola McEvoy … former Conservative frontbencher Steve Baker … LBC host Nick Ferrari.
Also on MP’s phone-in with Nicky Campbell (5Live, 10 a.m.): Labour MP Polly Billington … Conservative MP Sarah Bool … SNP MP Kirsty Blackman.
TODAY’S FRONT PAGES
POLITICO UK: Europe goes all out to make a deal with Trump on Greenland.
Daily Express: Elderly living in poverty ‘could exceed 2 million’.
Daily Mail: Now digital I.D. cards won’t be compulsory.
Daily Mirror: The rail deal.
Daily Star: Arctic troll!
Financial Times: Help is on its way, Trump tells Iranians.
Metro: Russian captain ‘did nothing’ to avoid US tanker.
The Daily Telegraph: Trump: Help is on the way.
The Guardian: ‘Help is on its way’: Trump calls on Iran’s protesters to remain defiant.
The i Paper: Labour promises new rail links for the North – but not until 2030s.
The Independent: ‘Help is on its way.’
The Sun: The inn reaper.
The Times: New Starmer U-turn over compulsory IDs.
LONDON CALLING
WESTMINSTER WEATHER: A big yellow thing will be in the sky, and it won’t be raining. Weird. High 9C, low 8C.
A HEARTFELT FAREWELL: The Speaker hosted a leaving do for Parliamentary Press Gallery Administrator Elizabeth Johnson, who has kept the whingey group of hacks running smoothly for many years. To a room full of journos, she made many tributes, but most importantly asked we all take our mugs back to Moncrieffs.
SPOTTED: At the RSC press night for Twelfth Night at the Barbican: Chief Secretary to the Prime Minister Darren Jones … SpAds Varun Chandra, Leo Rees, Felicity Slater, Harj Sahota, Griffin Mosson, Jane Eagles and Owen Alun John … RSC Chair Shriti Vadera … Labour peer Jan Royall … the FT’s Stephen Bush … former U.S. Ambassador Karen Pierce … DCMS Perm Sec Susannah Storey … and Treasury Perm Sec James Bowler.
NEW GIG 1: Shadow HMT Minister Gareth Davies is becoming a shadow DBT minister.
NEW GIG 2: Home Office Head Of News Craig Saunders is moving to lead the Treasury news team, starting Feb. 6.
MEA CULPA: Scottish Finance Secretary Shona Robison increased the thresholds for the basic and intermediate rates of income tax, not the rates themselves.
WRITING PLAYBOOK PM: Emilio Casalicchio.
WRITING PLAYBOOK THURSDAY MORNING: Andrew McDonald.
HAPPY BIRTHDAY TO: Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney MP Nick Smith … former Leader of the Lib Dems in the European Parliament Catherine Bearder … Crossbench peer Nigel Crisp … former U.K. Consul General to Hong Kong and Macao Andrew Heyn … Scotch Whisky Association Chief Executive Mark Kent.
PLAYBOOK COULDN’T HAPPEN WITHOUT: My editor James Panichi, diary reporter Bethany Dawson and producer Dean Southwell.
SUBSCRIBE to the POLITICO newsletter family: Brussels Playbook | London Playbook | London Playbook PM | Playbook Paris | EU Election Playbook | Berlin Playbook | Global Playbook | POLITICO Confidential | Sunday Crunch | EU Influence | London Influence | Berlin Bulletin | Living Cities | D.C. Playbook | D.C. Influence | Canada Playbook | All our POLITICO Pro policy morning newsletters