The SNP are on course to be the largest party come May, with Scottish Labour and Reform UK neck-and-neck for second place and the Greens in sixth, according to a new Survation poll commissioned by True North Advisors. 

On the constituency vote, the SNP polled at 34%, with Reform UK in second on 19%. Scottish Labour polled in third at 16%, followed by the Tories on 13%, the LibDems 9%, and Greens 8%. Alba polled at 1%.

On the regional list vote, the SNP scored 28%, while Reform UK and Scottish Labour both polled at 18%. The Tories were on 13%, the LibDems 11%. The Greens scored 9% and Alba 3%.

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Curtice highlighted that even among those who voted Labour in 2024, well over a third say Keir Starmer‘s performance means they will likely not be doing so again in May.

He said the SNP are lapping up the collapse in Labour support, but are still likely to find themselves in a weaker position than they are now at Holyrood.

Curtice said: “The SNP still seem well set to continue to provide Scotland’s devolved government. However, this is more a reflection of the collapse in Labour’s support than an endorsement of the party’s record in government.

“Meanwhile the party is still well short of the level of support it is likely to need to have a chance of achieving John Swinney’s target of an overall majority.

 “Voters’ evaluations of the UK government hang like a cloud over Anas Sarwar’s hopes of winning the keys to Bute House. Even among those who voted Labour in 2024, as many as 37% say the record of Sir Keir Starmer’s government makes them less likely to vote Labour in May whereas only 29% indicate that it makes then more likely to do so.

“Meanwhile, over half (52%) of 2024 Labour voters now say they disapprove of the Prime Minister, up from 32% a year ago.”

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Curtice highlighted how the SNP are “well down” on the 48% and 40% they won in 2021 in each vote and, although they have a 15 point lead, this is down to the fragmentation of the Unionist vote.

“It is still at risk of finding itself in a significantly weaker position at Holyrood than at present and is certainly unlikely to secure a majority,” Curtice went on.

Seat projections from the Survation polling suggest the SNP will be the largest party with 61 seats. 

Reform UK and Scottish Labour would be tied on 18 seats, the Tories would have 12 seats and the Scottish Liberal Democrats 11. The Scottish Green Party would win nine seats, meaning that Scotland is on course to elect a pro-independence majority of 70 MSPs.

There are 129 seats in the Scottish Parliament, meaning 65 MSPs are needed to form a majority government.

Among devolved leaders, John Swinney received an approval rating of -5% and Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar recorded an approval rating of -18%. 

For the survey, Survation polled 835 Scots between January 8 and January 12, 2026.