Cemlyn DaviesWales political correspondent
PA Media
Plaid Cymru’s Rhun ap Iorwerth is hoping to be Wales’ next first minister
Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth says he would prefer to form a minority government than enter a coalition with another party after the Senedd election.
His comments came after an opinion poll published earlier this week suggested Plaid was on course to win the Welsh election on 7 May.
Previous polls have suggested Plaid and Reform UK are battling to come out on top – but with neither party winning enough seats to be able to pass laws and spending plans without the support of opposition politicians.
Polling expert Dr Jac Larner from Cardiff University said the latest poll could see Plaid win 45 seats, which would leave it four seats short of a majority in the new 96-seat parliament.
Recent polls have sparked ongoing speculation around how Plaid would govern if they won the election but failed to win more than half the seats.
Speaking to the Gwleidydda podcast on BBC’s Radio Cymru, ap Iorwerth said it was his party’s “wish” to form a minority government made up of only Plaid ministers.
He said the latest opinion poll “confirms what I’ve felt for a while, which is that we can – if we fight an effective election and build trust with people – lead a minority government and do that successfully”.
He added that he was “determined that that minority government would make it clear from the start to whoever else is in that part of the [political] spectrum that we want to work together”.
“We’ll look at who we can work with, issue by issue, policy by policy, budget by budget and so on,” he added.
“I think it could be the beginning of a period of mature cooperation within government.”
Ap Iorwerth’s interview with Gwleidydda was part of a series the podcast is doing with prominent figures from all the major parties.
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No party has ever won a majority of the seats in Cardiff Bay
Responding to ap Iorwerth’s comments, Prof Richard Wyn Jones from the Wales Governance Centre at Cardiff University told the podcast: “Of course it’s easier to say that when the opinion polls suggest at the moment they aren’t far from a majority.
“If you’ve got a small minority, it much more difficult to run a government.”
He also suggested the comments could be a way to “avoid questions and accusations” from the Conservatives and Reform UK that victory for Plaid Cymru at the election would still put Labour in a position of power.
No party has ever won a majority in Cardiff Bay and the upcoming changes to the voting system make it highly unlikely that will change this election.
Labour has won the most seats at every previous election, but without a majority the party has always had to strike a deal of some kind with an opposition party.
At times that has led to formal coalitions with members of an opposition party joining the first minister’s cabinet.
What happens if there’s no majority?
No party has ever won a majority in Cardiff Bay, and the upcoming changes to the voting system make it highly unlikely that will change at this election.
Labour has won the most seats at every previous Senedd contest, but without a majority it has always had to strike a deal of some kind with an opposition party.
At times that has led to formal coalitions. This is where at least one member of an opposition party joins the government’s ministerial team – giving their party a voice at the cabinet table in exchange for its continued support.
Cardiff Bay has also seen agreements short of a full coalition, with the most recent example being the cooperation deal between Labour and Plaid Cymru between 2021 and 2024.
This saw the Welsh Labour government commit to deliver some Plaid Cymru policies, in exchange for Plaid’s support when it came to passing the government’s annual budget.
If his party wins the election, Rhun ap Iorwerth is hoping he can avoid both of the above options and run a minority government, where votes are agreed on a case by case basis.
Ultimately what the next first minister decides to do will depend entirely on the makeup of the new Senedd.
After all, as former US President Lyndon B. Johnson said: the first rule of politics is to learn how to count.