PJ banged in a 16/1 winner last weekend and fancies Delgany Deadline (15:40) after an encouraging fencing debut.
Paul Jacobs’ Sunday Value Tips
14:40 Sedgefield – The Coffey Boy
15:10 Sedgefield – Ghasham
15:40 Sedgefield – Delgany Deadline
15:55 Naas – Built By Ballymore
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change
14:40 Sedgefield – The Coffey Boy
I thought that Expelliarmus would have won a race this season, but it is just not happening for the mare, despite her being dropped from a high mark of 107 down to 93 now. If there is market support for the six-year-old, then I may have a saver on the Ben Haslem-trained runner.
With My My My Delilah yet to turn the promise of her bumper runs last season into any significant performances over hurdles, I think the wager has to be on the Ian Duncan-trained gelding THE COFFEY BOY, who has been given two interesting rides at Ayr. Two outings back the very deep ground at the West of Scotland track simply wasn’t his thing, and he wasn’t given an unduly hard time on his return to Ayr – I suspect being close to a hot pace over 2m 4f was a negative.
However, I am happy to give him another chance, on what should be better ground around a sharper track. His main asset is his slick jumping, and if Callum Bewley can jump him off on terms then he could be in the van all the way. In a slightly weaker race, he is very capable of winning off a rating of just 92.
15:10 Sedgefield – Ghasham
Indian River will be defending an unbeaten record over hurdles after winning two four-year-old events at Catterick and Wetherby on different ground. However, up against his elders this time around, the son of Nathaniel will need to take another significant step forward against some in form handicappers at this middle level.
Best of the top weights will probably be Chase A Fortune, who looks sure to be at the sharp end throughout here, and is 7lbs higher than for his Musselburgh second, with Danny McMenamin taking over from a conditional.
That should help bring a few of the hold-up charges into this race, headed by GHASHAM. The gelding has only won one hurdle race from 16 starts (five places) but has obviously suffered with his breathing, having had two wind ops. However, he served notice last time out at Market Rasen that the procedure may have worked, and the end-to-end gallop forecast here will be right up his street.
15:40 Sedgefield – Delgany Deadline
A prolific winner in the point to point field for Joe Wright, it will be interesting to see what improvement, if any, the shrewd Ruth Jefferson can get from Slaney Opera. His first run in seven months for her certainly had plenty of promise stamped all over it at Catterick, when he travelled and jumped nicely under Jamie Hamilton until lack of a run told turning for home at the Bridge.
He’s some 2lbs lower here, and if he has taken a fitness step forward from that, I expect him to outrun a double figure price. Elsewhere, there is enough pace in this field to make this a solid test of stamina, and with the promise of further rain at the County Durham track, this could suit both a hold up and a lightly weighted individual.
Step forward Dan Skelton’s charge, DELGANY DEADLINE, who – despite being a lightly-raced six year old is still learning the chasing game – showed enough on his fencing debut at Market Rasen to suggest a race of this nature is very much within his realm.
Held up off a moderate pace, he made the odd minor error down the back straight before being outpaced turning for home coming down the hill. However, he then ran on nicely down the home stretch under a relatively tender ride. That kind of ride could well be rewarded here for Skelton, who has hit a 23% strike rate across the last fortnight in a stellar season.
15:55 Naas – Built By Ballymore
Given that several of the 11 entries were pretty well treated on past performances, I thought that this was the most intriguing betting race of the day. That said, you’d have to go a fair way back in history to make a strong argument for some of them – but that is the nature of form assessment, and it depends on how many moderate performances you are happy to forgive.
Raglan Road quite obviously comes into that category, having been rated as high as 131 over hurdles less than a year ago, following an outstanding running on third in the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. However, a poor run at the Punchestown Festival more recently was followed by two very moderate runs over fences (beaten by 28 lengths and 42 lengths).
The positive is that he starts off his handicap career over fences off a mark of 126, but that in turn is also cancelled out in my mind by the form of the yard without a win in the last 16 days. As for others, dropping back to this trip should help Prophet’s Corner, who is another disappointing sort over fences.
However, both may well be eclipsed by Martin Brassil’s charge, BUILT BY BALLYMORE. Very lightly raced for an eight-year-old, with just the 12 runs under rules, his handler must have been delighted by his comeback run at Punchestown when he was nicely handled by Ricky Doyle with a view to the future. Hopefully, that kindness will be repaid here, as the cliché goes. JJ Slevin takes over the plate.
Paul Jacobs’ Sunday Value Tips
14:40 Sedgefield – The Coffey Boy
15:10 Sedgefield – Ghasham
15:40 Sedgefield – Delgany Deadline
15:55 Naas – Built By Ballymore
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change
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