Since the first Lions tour of the professional era in 1997, France have dominated the following year’s Six Nations. Les Bleus won the tournament in 1998, 2002, 2006, 2010 and 2022. All were directly after a Lions tour.
The French prosper because while the Anglo-Celts are slogging it out in the south every four years, they are recovering on a French beach sipping the local iced rosé.
Last summer, when 18 Irish players were deep in the arduous Lions tour that traversed the vast Australian continent, the French coach Fabien Galthié flabbergasted the New Zealand rugby community by granting his top players a sabbatical, leaving them in France and selecting close to a third XV to play two summer Tests in the Shaky Isles.
Unsurprisingly, the players Galthié selected against New Zealand performed with exceptional character, skill and purpose. They ran the hosts close in two engrossing matches.
Joshua Brennan providing a sample of France’s strength in depth while on tour in New Zealand last July. Photograph: Hagen Hopkins/Getty Images
Galthié shocked the rugby world last week when he announced his Six Nations squad minus superstars Grégory Alldritt, Gaël Fickou and Damian Penaud. The message to his squad was clear. No one is safe. Perform or be dropped. The fact that Fickou is on 99 Test caps displays the ruthlessness of the decision.
Behind the Ali G glasses and white tennis shoes lurks the mind of an exceptionally astute operator. Galthié has created a supercharged environment of internal competition for places.
To suggest that Andy Farrell should adopt the same selection philosophy as Galthié is a fantasy. When compared with the vastness of the French talent pool, Ireland’s looks more like a bath tub.
While Irish supporters have become accustomed to winning, the reality is that the national team have been punching above their weight for many years.
When compared with France, in the week before the start of this year’s tournament, Ireland are decimated by injuries, made worse by the mindless actions of Bundee Aki, who has inexcusably mouthed off at a referee and is now suspended. However, it is the troika of injured looseheads – Andrew Porter, Jack Boyle and Paddy McCarthy – that reinforces the simple fact that Ireland do not have enough quality international-level players to cope with such circumstances.
One thing Ireland can guarantee is that the French scrum coach, William Servat, is planning to relentlessly target the loosehead side of Ireland’s setpiece. He will have studied the footage of the Springboks buckling the Irish scrum last November and produce tactics that will maximise the French tighthead side of the scrum. France will be without regular tighthead Uini Atonio, but Servat is fully aware that if your scrum dominates, you will win.
While France have a vast arsenal of attacking weapons, if the Irish scrum crumbles they will not need much else.
Perhaps the most interesting absence from the French squad is that of giant Toulouse secondrower Thibaud Flament, who has withdrawn as he and his partner are trying to conceive a baby. The timing of his partner’s ovulation and the planning of the ART (assisted reproductive technology) clashes with the Irish fixture.
[ Brianna Parkins on Thibaud Flament’s decisionOpens in new window ]
The decision is being seen by a section of silverbacks among the cauliflower-eared and crooked-nose brigade as a prime example of today’s generation of players being incapable of multitasking. But starting a family is far more important than a game of rugby and I am sure all of us wish the Flaments every success in their publicly stated endeavours to procreate.
Thibaud Flament (centre) in action for France against Ireland last year. Photograph: Ben Brady/Inpho
For historical accuracy, it must be said that my memory of the amateur era is of players’ putting much more effort into not getting their partners pregnant than the opposite.
As for mulitasking, a famous Scottish International once described to me that on one memorable Test match day, with a 3pm kick-off, his team defeated England to win the Calcutta Cup. Afterwards at the team hotel he celebrated with a half bottle of whisky and a consensual romp around the bedroom with his wife, before falling asleep and waking up with a hangover. All of this before the start of the official black tie dinner at 8pm. As the night was still a pup, he and his wife soldiered on, donning their glad rags and twirling away in the Edinburgh gloaming until the wee small hours.
You can say what you like about the amateur days but we had a lot of fun.
Fun and the Stade de France are not words usually linked to Irish teams. Especially if, as I suspect, Galthié will implement the same tactics that smashed Ireland at the Aviva last year when France selected a massive pack with an extra seven forwards in a 7-1 bench. Forwards win Test matches and last year the French demolished the Irish pack at set piece and in their close running attack.
While Ireland can expect more of the same direct physical tactics from the French, they will also have to cope with the return of Les Bleus’ talismanic leader Antoine Dupont.
After suffering a terrible knee injury in the corresponding fixture in Dublin, Dupont’s form on returning for Toulouse has him once again displaying talents that continue to astonish. When you think you have witnessed the full gambit of his genius, he defies definition to once again perform the seemingly impossible.
I know he will torment Ireland, but I cannot wait to see him perform because it is such a joy to watch.
The French are red-hot favourites to add to their long list of Six Nations titles in the year after a Lions tour. They are planning on making a bold opening statement against Ireland in Paris.
In the amateur era, when Ireland were written off as complete underdogs, they could produce an impossibly spirited effort that overcame seemingly insurmountable odds to win. They will need all of that ancient lore and a bucket of intervention from the rugby gods in the form of red cards if they are to defeat a mighty French organisation.