Defending champion Felix Auger-Aliassime will face three-time Grand Slam champion Stan Wawrinka for the first time at the ATP 250 in Montpellier. Who will reach the quarterfinals?

ATP Montpellier Day 4 Predictions
Luca Nardi vs Flavio Cobolli

Head-to-head: Nardi 3-1 Cobolli

Cobolli suffered an unexpected first-round exit against a qualifier at the Australian Open and he later confirmed that he experienced sudden abdominal pain just a few minutes before going to the court. The Italian’s only win this season remains that dramatic United Cup singles victory against Stan Wawrinka. There will be less pressure in this tournament, but Cobolli faces a tricky opener as he attempts to steady his season. Luca Nardi has won three of their four meetings, and there could be enough questions about Cobolli’s readiness. That said, if the World No. 20 is fully fit, he has a clear edge.
Prediction: Cobolli in 3

Arthur Fils vs Ugo Blanchet

Head-to-head: Fils 1-0 Blanchet

Less than a year ago, Fils was destined to be one of the challengers for a Top 10 spot. His career was trending upward before a back injury forced him to shut down his 2025 season early. Fils won his opening match in Montpellier on his return, defeating countryman Valentin Royer in three sets. His physical level held up and that trademark powerful forehand dictated points with real authority. Blanchet is in the main draw as a lucky loser and stunned Vavassori in the first round. He can scrap and extend rallies, but he’s no match for Fils when it comes to trading forehand shots. If there is no physical dip, expect Fils to make short work of his compatriot.
Prediction: Fils in 2

Titouan Droguet vs Aleksandar Kovacevic

Head-to-head: Droguet 1-1 Kovacevic

Kovacvic was virtually unbeatable in this tournament 12 months ago until the final, where he was a tiebreak away from completing an incredible title triumph. The American’s path to the final looks similarly daunting this week, starting with a rerun of the last 16 match at the Quimper Challenger just days ago. Droguet eked out a tight straight sets win against Kovacevic. The Frenchman qualified for the main draw in Montpellier on his third try and was too solid against Jan Choinski, mixing wide and body serves to good effect. Playing with the same intensity and imposing that serve could give Droguet control of key moments in what I think will be another close match between them.
Prediction: Droguet in 3

Tallon Griekspoor vs Pablo Carreno Busta

Head-to-head: Griekspoor 1-1 Carreno Busta

Griekspoor has looked a little uneven in the early weeks of the season. The Dutchman has lost in the first round in all four tournaments this season. Losses to Alexander Zverev and Hubert Hurkacz at the United Cup were within expectation, but a straight-sets defeat to Ethan Quinn at the Australian Open lingers as a confidence dent. Carreno Busta may not be the same player who competed in this tournament six years ago, but he’s coming off a solid win against Miomir Kecmanovic. Timing and match rhythm favor the Spanish veteran.
Prediction: Carreno Busta in 3

Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Stan Wawrinka

Head-to-head: first meeting

The intriguing thing about this matchup is that Auger-Aliassime and Wawrinka have never faced off at the Tour level. Their first meeting will be in Wawrinka’s final season on tour. The Swiss opened his account in Montpellier with a fine straight-sets win against former NextGen champion Hamad Medjedovic. Auger-Aliassime took home the title last year and has not lost before the semis at this event in the last two seasons. But this will be the Canadian’s first match since he limped out of the Australian Open. There is a genuine upset potential here. Only one of Wawrinka’s five defeats this season has been in straight sets (against top 50 opponents), showing that he’s got the competitiveness and drive to raise his level.
Prediction: Wawrinka in 3

Main Photo Credit: Mike Frey-Imagn Images