{"id":1005418,"date":"2026-06-04T18:57:41","date_gmt":"2026-06-04T18:57:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/1005418\/"},"modified":"2026-06-04T18:57:41","modified_gmt":"2026-06-04T18:57:41","slug":"soaring-migration-drove-brexit-voters-from-tories-to-reform-uk-politics-news","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/1005418\/","title":{"rendered":"Soaring migration drove Brexit voters from Tories to Reform UK | Politics | News"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Nigel<\/p>\n

Nigel Farage now has a shot at becoming prime minister (Image: Getty)<\/p>\n

Soaring net migration<\/a> drove Brexit<\/a> voters away from the Conservative party as the Tories delivered the \u201cvery opposite of what they wanted\u201d, according to Britain\u2019s most respected election expert. Sir John Curtice<\/a> has delivered a major analysis of how Reform UK has become the most popular political party in the country.<\/p>\n

Alongside anger at \u201cpartygate\u201d and the fall-out of Liz Truss\u2019s<\/a> mini-Budget, he pointed to the surge of new arrivals in the UK which saw net migration peak at 944,000 in the year ending March 2023.<\/p>\n

Sir John said: \u201cPeople who voted for Brexit<\/a> now feel that Brexit has resulted in an increase in immigration, which is the very, very opposite of what they wanted.\u201d<\/p>\n

The challenge for the Conservatives<\/a>, he said, is how to \u201cget them back\u201d.<\/p>\n

Describing how supporters of the insurgent party \u201cvery, very much\u201d expect a Reform UK Government would be able to reduce immigration, he said: \u201cThey believed Boris Johnson<\/a>, and now they believe Nigel Farage<\/a> on that.\u201d<\/p>\n

Sir John suggested the way forward for the Conservatives may be to \u201cshift the agenda\u201d away to other issues because \u201cit’s very, very difficult to out-Farage Farage\u201d.<\/p>\n

He said the \u201creal baggage\u201d dragging down the Tory support is that \u201cnot many people are sure that it’s capable of providing us with competent government in any kind of area\u201d. He warned it is \u201calways very difficult for a government that’s been rejected on grounds of competence\u201d to rebuild its reputation quickly.<\/p>\n

Sir John set out the collapse in support for the two traditional parties of power, stating that fewer than 40% of the country intend to vote either Labour or Conservative. He described last month\u2019s local election results as \u201cfrankly awful\u201d for both Conservatives and Labour.<\/p>\n

The Tories<\/a> have lost a \u201cwhole barrel load of voters to Reform on the social conservative agenda\u201d while the Greens are \u201cpicking up the more socially liberal and Left-wing end of the Labour coalition\u201d.<\/p>\n

\"Sir<\/p>\n

Political scientist Sir John Curtice has examined Reform UK’s core support (Image: Getty Images)<\/p>\n

In previous elections a party polling around 28% would not expect to win, but Sir John suggested that in today\u2019s fragmented political landscape this is \u201cpotentially a winning number\u201d for Reform.<\/p>\n

A key challenge for Reform, he added, turning its support among people who did not vote in the 2024 election to the polls at the next contest.<\/p>\n

In a major analysis for the National Centre for Social Research, he laid bare Reform\u2019s core support base.<\/p>\n

Mr Farage\u2019s party commands the support of four of 10 people \u201cwhose highest educational qualification is less than an A-level\u201d but just 9% of graduates. While 27% of those aged 55-plus support the party, this is true for only 18% of people in the 18-34 age group.<\/p>\n

Reform is also more popular among the country\u2019s men (28%) than women (19%). Six out of 10 Reform supporters are \u201cvery dissatisfied\u201d with the NHS, compared with 51% of the general public.<\/p>\n

Sir John reported that \u201c75% of Reform supporters believe that migrants who come to Britain undermine the country\u2019s culture\u201d while \u201conly 35% of the general public agree with them\u201d.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Nigel Farage now has a shot at becoming prime minister (Image: Getty) Soaring net migration drove Brexit voters…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":1005419,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[5226],"tags":[802,264050,748,527,2000,299,5187,1699,4884,40,183279,386,16,15],"class_list":["post-1005418","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-brexit","tag-brexit","tag-brexit-voters","tag-britain","tag-conservative-party","tag-eu","tag-europe","tag-european","tag-european-union","tag-great-britain","tag-immigration","tag-net-migration","tag-reform-uk","tag-uk","tag-united-kingdom"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@uk\/116693373252406845","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1005418","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1005418"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1005418\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1005419"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1005418"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1005418"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1005418"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}