{"id":1025616,"date":"2026-06-14T07:14:19","date_gmt":"2026-06-14T07:14:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/1025616\/"},"modified":"2026-06-14T07:14:19","modified_gmt":"2026-06-14T07:14:19","slug":"cyprus-between-turkiye-and-france-what-will-rising-tensions-lead-to","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/1025616\/","title":{"rendered":"Cyprus between T\u00fcrkiye and France: what will rising tensions lead to?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdo\u011fan warned of a \u201cvery firm response\u201d to any actions that threaten T\u00fcrkiye or Turkish Cypriots in the Eastern Mediterranean, two days after France and Cyprus signed an agreement regulating the presence of French troops on the island.<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\u201cRight now, we are witnessing an attempt to ignite discord in the Mediterranean, especially on the island of Cyprus, and we are closely monitoring developments,\u201d Erdo\u011fan told lawmakers from his ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP).<\/p>\n

\u201cLet no one engage in adventurism,\u201d he said. \u201cIf anyone infringes upon the rights and laws of T\u00fcrkiye and Turkish Cypriots in the Eastern Mediterranean, I want everyone to know: our response will be very clear and very firm.\u201d<\/p>\n

Erdo\u011fan did not mention France in his warning, but he accused unnamed actors of pursuing what he described as unrealistic ambitions in the Eastern Mediterranean.<\/p>\n

France and the Republic of Cyprus (Greek Cyprus) signed a status of forces agreement that establishes the legal framework for the presence and activities of French military personnel in Cyprus, as well as Cypriot military personnel in France.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

President of Cyprus Nikos Christodoulides stated that the agreement will deepen bilateral defence cooperation and contribute to the European Union\u2019s efforts to strengthen its defence capabilities.<\/p>\n

French President Emmanuel Macron said during his visit to the island in April that the two countries are laying the groundwork for the deployment of French troops to conduct humanitarian operations in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East.<\/p>\n

What will the deployment of French troops in the Republic of Cyprus lead to, and what is Paris aiming to achieve? Under Macron, France has already lost many of its positions on the international stage and reduced its military presence in various regions of the world. Is the deployment of a contingent in Cyprus an attempt to preserve its status as a global power? And could this step lead to rising tensions in a strategically important region at the crossroads of Europe and the Middle East?<\/p>\n

Leading analysts shared their assessments of the situation with Caliber.Az<\/a><\/strong>.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Turkish political scientist, Professor\u00a0Togrul Ismayil<\/strong> of Ankara University, noted that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdo\u011fan\u2019s statements about readiness to deliver a \u201cvery firm response\u201d to any threats to T\u00fcrkiye\u2019s rights and those of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus represent one of the most significant signals in recent weeks for the entire Eastern Mediterranean.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis is no longer just about Cyprus. It is about the formation of a new geopolitical node of tension between T\u00fcrkiye, Europe, and other external actors.<\/p>\n

The agreement signed between France and the Greek Cypriot administration of Southern Cyprus on the status of armed forces is formally explained by humanitarian security concerns and cooperation within the framework of the European Union. However, in Ankara it is clearly understood that such steps carry a much deeper strategic meaning.<\/p>\n

Under Emmanuel Macron, France is attempting to preserve its image as a global power despite a significant reduction in its influence in Africa and the Middle East.<\/p>\n

Paris has effectively lost its previous positions in Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso. French military presence in the Sahel has come under question, while French policy increasingly faces a crisis of trust in its former colonies.<\/p>\n

In this situation, the Eastern Mediterranean is becoming one of the last regions where Paris can still demonstrate military and political presence. That is precisely why Cyprus is seen as a convenient foothold\u2014simultaneously close to the Middle East, North Africa, and key energy routes.<\/p>\n

However, the problem is that the Eastern Mediterranean has long turned into an area of intense competition. The interests of T\u00fcrkiye, Greece, Israel, several European Union countries, and the United States intersect there. A particularly important issue is energy resources. Ankara has repeatedly emphasised that attempts to ignore the rights of Turkish Cypriots over the region\u2019s natural resources are unacceptable,\u201d the professor recalled.<\/p>\n

According to him, this is precisely why T\u00fcrkiye is extremely sensitive to any increase in foreign military presence in Southern Cyprus.<\/p>\n

\u201cIn Ankara there are concerns about the gradual formation of an anti-Turkish military-political configuration, in which France is attempting to play a key role. Today, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019s policy has changed significantly compared to the early 2000s. Ankara is no longer willing to limit itself to diplomatic protests.<\/p>\n

T\u00fcrkiye is actively developing its naval capabilities, strengthening its defence industry, and demonstrating readiness to protect its interests far beyond its own shores.<\/p>\n

At the same time, the likelihood of a direct military confrontation between T\u00fcrkiye and France remains low. Both countries are NATO members, and an open conflict within the Alliance would deal a severe blow to the entire Western security system. However, the level of political and strategic-military confrontation in the region is clearly set to increase.<\/p>\n

Against this backdrop, Recep Tayyip Erdo\u011fan\u2019s statements should be seen not as an emotional reaction, but as part of a new Turkish strategy. Ankara is signalling that it is no longer prepared to accept shifts in the balance of power in the Eastern Mediterranean without taking into account its own interests and those of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus.<\/p>\n

Ultimately, the struggle over Cyprus is becoming part of a much broader process \u2014 the formation of a new balance of power between Europe, T\u00fcrkiye, and the Middle East. That is why even a limited French military presence on the island can become a factor of serious regional tension,\u201d Ismayil believes.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Expert on international affairs and head of the \u201cSouth Caucasus\u201d Political Scientists Club,\u00a0Ilgar Velizade<\/strong>, stated that this story is not new and began when Emmanuel Macron first came to power in France.<\/p>\n

\u201cEven then, he drew attention to the Eastern Mediterranean as a potential zone of French military-political presence. At that time, the war in Syria was ongoing, and the French army was demonstrating its participation in combat operations, showing that France had leverage in the region and could be an active participant in counterterrorism efforts.<\/p>\n

During the same period, there was a serious crisis in T\u00fcrkiye\u2019s relations with a number of states \u2014 Egypt, the Syrian government under Assad, Greece, and the Republic of Cyprus, particularly over the issue of territorial waters. For France, a guiding principle has long been: where there is conflict, there are its interests. Paris has applied a similar strategy of engagement through conflict in the South Caucasus as well. Emerging fault lines in the Mediterranean became a \u2018window of opportunity\u2019 for French entry into the region.<\/p>\n

France actively participated in multinational military exercises and supported Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar in Libya, while T\u00fcrkiye backed the UN-recognised government. Paris skillfully used contradictions between regional actors to advance its own interests. A separate episode was France\u2019s attempt to mediate internal processes in Lebanon.<\/p>\n

The main \u2018trademark\u2019 of French policy is the use of conflicting interests and the strengthening of its position through support for parties opposing T\u00fcrkiye, which Paris views as its longstanding regional rival. If earlier France limited itself to exercises and political backing, now a qualitative shift is emerging \u2014 the direct deployment of troops, which had never happened before,\u201d the expert emphasised.<\/p>\n

According to him, the situation in Cyprus is further complicated by the presence of Turkish and Greek contingents, UN peacekeepers, and long-standing British military bases dating back to the colonial era.<\/p>\n

\u201cFrance appears here as a new and non-traditional actor. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019s reaction is predictably negative, but a major question is how the United Kingdom will respond.<\/p>\n

The entry of France into a zone of traditional British geopolitical interests could trigger complex dynamics. Although Cyprus is a member of the EU and the UK has left the Union, British interests have not disappeared. Active French involvement could shift latent processes into a phase of unpredictable consequences across multiple directions.<\/p>\n

Equally important is Israel\u2019s reaction, which has recently been actively cooperating with Greece and Cyprus, but maintains strained relations with France. The emergence of a new player will undoubtedly increase tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean, as France is entering a region that is not traditionally considered within its sphere of influence.<\/p>\n

Ultimately, such large-scale ambitions could prove costly for Paris, but only time will reveal the final outcome,\u201d Velizade said.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdo\u011fan warned of a \u201cvery firm response\u201d to any actions that threaten T\u00fcrkiye or…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":1025617,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[5309],"tags":[23355,7503,7502,2000,299,36,23356,23359,466,23358,23357,23354],"class_list":["post-1025616","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-france","tag-analysis-of-azerbaijan","tag-azerbaijan","tag-baku","tag-eu","tag-europe","tag-france","tag-important-news-of-azerbaijan","tag-international-experts","tag-interviews","tag-interviews-with-azerbaijani-analysts","tag-news-from-baku","tag-news-of-azerbaijan"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@uk\/116747232041588712","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1025616","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1025616"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1025616\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1025617"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1025616"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1025616"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1025616"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}