![\"A](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/97521d377edf150a2390ed0367cdaae1.jpeg\")
Bank of England forecasts from April predicted that inflation would average around 3.1% in the second quarter of this year (Jordan Pettitt\/PA) \u00b7 Jordan Pettitt <\/p>\nUK inflation is set to have increased again last month over more expensive airfares and car duty.<\/p>\n
Economists have predicted that the rate of Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rose to 3% in May, from 2.8% in April.<\/p>\n
It would mean that price increases for goods and services accelerated compared with the previous month.<\/p>\n
Bank of England forecasts from April predicted that inflation would average around 3.1% in the second quarter of this year (Jordan Pettitt\/PA) \u00b7 Jordan Pettitt <\/p>\n
Inflation had slowed to its lowest level for more than a year in April because of a decline in household energy prices for the month.<\/p>\n
Ofgem lowered its energy price cap from the start of April by 7%, or \u00a310 a month, for the average household using both electricity and gas, pushed lower by Government measures to reduce bills.<\/p>\n
It meant that inflation declined for the month despite a jump in fuel costs caused by the impact of the conflict in the Middle East.<\/p>\n
The Ofgem price cap is set to have kept a lid of energy price inflation for May, but the impact of the Iran war is still expected to drive the monthly inflation rate higher again.<\/p>\n
Analysts at Pantheon Macroeconomics have predicted that airfares will \u201crebound strongly\u201d in May, potentially contributed to higher inflation for the month.<\/p>\n
Experts have predicted that airliners and holiday firms will unwind price cuts from April, contributing to inflation against the previous month.<\/p>\n
Inflation had declined in April despite a jump in fuel costs caused by the impact of the conflict in the Middle East (Vahid Salemi\/AP) \u00b7 Vahid Salemi <\/p>\n
Vehicle excise duty could also add 0.1 percentage points to inflation for the month, Pantheon said.<\/p>\n
They said the ONS overstated the rise in car duty in April 2025, resulting in a correction in May 2025.<\/p>\n
The year-on-year comparison of this is expected to help drive the inflation rate higher this May.<\/p>\n
Inflation is widely expected to keep steadily increasing over the coming months, with most economists predicting that it will peak at between 3.5% and 4% in the second half of 2026.<\/p>\n
Bank of England forecasts from April predicted that inflation would average around 3.1% in the second quarter of this year and peak at around 3.6% in a more benign scenario related to the Middle East conflict.<\/p>\n
On Thursday, policymakers at the central bank will vote on whether to maintain interest rates at their current rate of 3.75% or increase or decrease this rate.<\/p>\n
The Bank is expected to hold off an interest rate hike despite concerns that the Middle East conflict will push the cost of living higher.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"UK inflation is set to have increased again last month over more expensive airfares and car duty. Economists…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":1031006,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[3090],"tags":[936,51,237584,1700,185330,16,15164,15],"class_list":["post-1031005","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-bank-of-england","tag-business","tag-conflict-in-the-middle-east","tag-economy","tag-price-inflation","tag-uk","tag-uk-inflation","tag-united-kingdom"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@uk\/116761965391752566","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1031005","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1031005"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1031005\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1031006"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1031005"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1031005"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1031005"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}