And, if you\u2019d like to find out more about why The Model was created, it\u2019s been featured in a piece this week by German magazine Stern<\/a>, where I (James, the person who built this) got to speak to them about what goes into the system and my thoughts on how it affects Eurovision coverage!<\/p>\n The Result Predicted to come in last place by The Model tonight is Georgia. Mariam Shengelia\u2019s song \u201cFreedom\u201d has struggled towards the bottom of the odds throughout the season and, despite its staging, it appears not to be moving further up the board.<\/p>\n Georgia is projected to score 5 points by The Model, all from Armenia, and came second to last in the Eurovision Audience Poll after the jury show with 14 votes. Poor running order position is also a big factor in Georgia\u2019s struggles within The Model, as Malta and France performing on either side of it makes it likely this could be overshadowed.<\/p>\n While Montenegro is making its Eurovision comeback this year, The Model thinks they may have to come back home early. Nina \u017di\u017ei\u0107 is projected to come second to last in this show with 11 points. This comes down to similar odds struggles as Georgia, and it placed bottom of the Audience Poll with only 8 votes.<\/p>\n The reason why Montenegro is ahead of Georgia comes down to diaspora, with \u201cDobrodo\u0161li\u201d predicted to score 8 points from neighbours Serbia. However, the combination of the most difficult spot in the running order coupled with a lack of buzz means that this faces a huge battle to make it to the final.<\/p>\n There\u2019s a big jump in points up to 14th place and, from here, any country has got a reasonable chance to get through. Falling short, though, is Serbia according to The Model. Princ and his song \u201cMila\u201d are projected to score 28 points in tonight\u2019s show \u2013 this Balkan ballad also placed 12th in last night\u2019s Audience Poll with 33 votes.<\/p>\n While Serbia has spent a fair deal of time in the top 10 of this semi-final\u2019s qualification odds, it\u2019s slipped down in recent days. However, there has been some positive odds movement in the main winners odds, suggesting that many think it can harness the power of the juries if it gets to the final. However, The Model thinks it\u2019ll miss out.<\/p>\n The Model is projecting a serious shock could happen tonight. \u201cKiss Kiss Goodbye\u201d by Adonxs was projected to qualify comfortably as recently as Sunday, and The Model thought it would make the top 10 in the final. Now, though, a combination of huge odds drops and a nightmarish Audience Poll result has led to The Model predicting Czechia not to qualify, scoring only 33 points from the public.<\/p>\n Czechia placed 14th in last night\u2019s poll with 24 votes, a significant shock to many who were out gathering the votes at St. Jakobshalle. It seems that in a year with several strong stagings and exciting genres, Kiss Kiss Goodbye may be struggling to stand out in the pack. All this is adding to The Model predicting something that would have been unthinkable a week ago.<\/p>\n The Model is also not bringing good news for Denmark \u2013 it predicts that it\u2019ll miss out on a fifth Eurovision final in a row. However, there is hope for Sissal \u2013 last night\u2019s Audience Poll placed her as high as ninth with 82 points. Not only that, The Model does think that it\u2019s very close to making it \u2013 it\u2019s projected to score 37 points, just three behind the qualifying line.<\/p>\n One of the main concerns for Denmark this year has been their allocation draw. To put it simply, it\u2019s not been ideal \u2013 natural allies like Sweden and Norway in the Nordics have performed in the first semi-final, and the only country that borders it voting here is Germany. Coupled with mixed reactions to the staging, \u201cHallucination\u201d could just fall short.<\/p>\n But if Denmark is missing out by a whisker, Latvia are projected by The Model to fall agonisingly short. That\u2019s because the system predicts that Tautumeitas will score the same amount of points \u2013 40 \u2013 as the song in tenth place. The Audience Poll from last night agrees with The Model here, placing Latvia in 11th, but with a healthy 71 votes.<\/p>\n If this prediction were absolutely accurate, it would be even more painful because Latvia have built momentum. Since Sunday, The Model has projected 10 extra points could be coming Latvia\u2019s way, and the staging has been very well received online and in the press room. This prediction, though, is so close to call that it\u2019s practically a coin toss with the country above it.<\/p>\n So, why has Greece made it above Latvia? It\u2019s because of the countback rules \u2013 with both countries scoring a 12 (from Armenia and Lithuania respectively), a 7 from Serbia is the difference in The Model between Greece qualifying and Latvia not. But this is despite Greece currently being seventh in the odds to qualify \u2013 so what\u2019s going on?<\/p>\n Firstly, The Model has always felt that Klavdia might struggle \u2013 \u201cAsteromata\u201d is seen as friendlier with juries, and Greece is lacking its best friend, Cyprus. Greece was also only tenth in the Audience Poll with 81 votes, which isn\u2019t a huge vote of confidence. If The Model is right, this promises to be an incredibly close race for the final few places on Saturday night.<\/p>\n Coming in ninth in The Model\u2019s projection is its most outside bet. While Armenia are 13th in the odds to qualify at the time of writing, The Model reckons they\u2019re going to make it. Parg and his song \u201cSurvivor\u201d is tracking for 47 points with The Model tonight, and the prediction is backed up by a strong eighth place in the Audience Poll with 95 votes.<\/p>\n \u201cSurvivor\u201d seems to be standing out in Basel \u2013 its harder rock sound is different to Lithuania\u2019s more alternative style, and Parg\u2019s physical staging seems to be capturing the imagination as well. Add that to having friends like Georgia and Greece voting for them, and The Model is making the argument for Parg to pass through to Saturday.<\/p>\n The Model is placing Armenia\u2019s rocking rival, \u201cTavo Akys\u201d by Katarsis, one place above it in eighth with 66 points. I mentioned the differences between them in sound earlier, and the staging is completely different, too. That\u2019s allowing both of these entries to stand out on their own \u2013 and Katarsis looks like the kind of act that appeals both to cool kids and their parents.<\/p>\n One caveat, though, is that Lithuania did not do very well in last night\u2019s Audience Poll, taking just 26 votes from the public we spoke to outside St. Jakobshalle Arena. But with the betting odds remaining stable, a sizeable fanbase and a hugely favourable draw with countries like Latvia, Ireland and the UK voting here, this should make it over the line.<\/p>\n If you looked at The Model\u2019s prediction on Tuesday, you may have been one of many who were surprised at San Marino\u2019s high placing. But after it qualified, it proved that audiences enjoy a song with an earworm hook. Right now, Ireland appears to be on a similar trajectory \u2013 thanks to an exceptional sixth place in the Audience Poll with 106 votes.<\/p>\n Emmy\u2019s \u201cLaika Party\u201d is definitely playing to a younger crowd with its dancing space dogs and flashy lighting \u2013 but its running order position helps with that, too. Between Montenegro and Latvia, two more challenging songs for younger audiences, and early on in the show for kids to watch, is boosting its performance in The Model to 83 points.<\/p>\n Up in sixth place, The Model is confident in Luxembourg. Laura Thorn is doing brilliantly in The Model\u2019s projection, with Luxembourg backed to take 87 points from the viewing public tonight. \u201cLa poup\u00e9e monte le son\u201d had a strong Audience Poll showing in seventh place, scoring 99 votes, although that could be down to Switzerland being a Francophone country.<\/p>\n However, this appears to have solid appeal across the board. Laura\u2019s vocals have been getting stronger throughout rehearsals, and the betting odds have responded by shortening their price point to qualify. But another caveat is that, as they\u2019ve only been in one modern Eurovision, it\u2019s the country The Model has the least data on!<\/p>\n We\u2019re into The Model\u2019s top five songs from Semi-Final Two, now, and next on the list is Malta. Miriana Conte\u2019s \u201cServing\u201d (retitled for obvious reasons) has been serving up a storm throughout the pre-parties and has been strongly backed for televote success. However, there has been some drift in the odds in the past few days.<\/p>\n Malta came fourth in the Audience Poll with a solid 112 votes, but it\u2019s not tracking like the televote hoover that some were expecting. One thing to note, though, is that Malta has far fewer natural allies in voting than other nations. That means its projected score of 99 points here is far more down to the strength of Miriana\u2019s entry, and doesn\u2019t have help from any neighbours.<\/p>\n Australia looks to be shaking up the semi-final, too. Go-Jo is up in fourth place with The Model ahead of tonight\u2019s show, with \u201cMilkshake Man\u201d scoring 114 points in this simulation. Opening the programme tonight looks to be giving Go-Jo the boost he needs, and the song\u2019s happy-go-lucky and comedic tone appears to be winning the audience over.<\/p>\n Australia placed a brilliant third in last night\u2019s Audience Poll, surprising many with 124 votes taken outside in Basel for it. After a year away from the final, then, Australia looks set to return to Saturday night Eurovision to mark its first decade in the contest. All you have to do is get a guy who can pull off a shirtless kneeslide.<\/p>\n Austria stands as one of the main favourites to win the Eurovision Song Contest outright this year. But in The Model, it\u2019s behind two countries in its own semi-final. There are a lot of reasons for this \u2013 JJ\u2019s appeal is more to the juries than the two songs above it, and it appears that the highly stylised staging might be polarising.<\/p>\n This projection is despite Austria only being three from winning last night\u2019s Audience Poll with 333 votes. But there are big caveats to that \u2013 Austria is Switzerland\u2019s direct neighbour, and that means it\u2019s much more likely you\u2019ll get an Austrian voting for their own country in the poll. All of that means Austria is being projected more conservatively here at 123 points.<\/p>\n Without needing to discuss why, it\u2019s easy to see that Israel\u2019s entries behave differently from every other country\u2019s songs. The main way to see this is to listen to \u201cNew Day Will Rise\u201d \u2013 a textbook Eurovision power ballad. While these kinds of entries are usually to juries what a flame is to a moth, Israel is of course tracking to do much better in the public vote.<\/p>\n This is despite Israel placing a fairly average fifth in the Audience Poll, taking 112 votes last night. But that can be misleading \u2013 people are more likely to vote for this song in a quieter way than others. Because of this, Israel should have a very strong televote base in this semi-final, and The Model backs that base to deliver Yuval 168 points tonight.<\/p>\n Finally, the winner of this semi-final in The Model\u2019s projection is Erika Vikman. After her victory at their national final UMK earlier this year, Erika had drifted in the odds slightly \u2013 in many ways overshadowed by the Finns representing Sweden this year. However, she\u2019s moved back up in the odds and The Model thinks she\u2019s going to take the most points tonight.<\/p>\n Finland is projected to score 179 points from the viewing public tonight. Not only are they growing again in the odds slightly, but Finland winning the audience poll with 336 votes shows real strength. It\u2019s clear that this performance is working in the arena and its impressing many on the broadcast, too \u2013 and closing the show is the best spot you can get!<\/p>\n Now, though, it\u2019s time to see whether The Model is right. Tomorrow, after the second semi-final of Eurovision 2025, we\u2019ll see whether it\u2019s gotten all ten qualifiers right or if there is a surprise the system hasn\u2019t seen coming.<\/p>\n And, on Saturday, The Model will do what it is built to do \u2013 predict the winner and every single position and point of the Grand Final of the Eurovision Song Contest 2025. Make sure to follow Eurovoix across social media to find out when the predictions come out!<\/p>\n Image Source: EBU \/ Alma Bengtsson<\/p>\n Like this:<\/p>\n Like Loading…<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Tags: Eurovoix<\/a> Headline<\/a> The Model<\/a>\t<\/p>\n Posted by:James Stephenson<\/p>\n I’m proud to be a writer at Eurovoix, and even more proud to be creator and producer of the Eurovoix Podcast.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"\u2018The Model\u2019, Eurovoix\u2019s data simulation of the Eurovision Song Contest, has made its official prediction for Semi-Final Two…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":103605,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3937],"tags":[77,47735,2774,47736,382,16,15],"class_list":{"0":"post-103604","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-tv","8":"tag-entertainment","9":"tag-eurovoix","10":"tag-headline","11":"tag-the-model","12":"tag-tv","13":"tag-uk","14":"tag-united-kingdom"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@uk\/114512069259834336","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/103604","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=103604"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/103604\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/103605"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=103604"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=103604"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=103604"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
\n![\"Semi-Final](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/THE-MODEL-SF2-FINAL-1024x576.jpg\")
Semi-Final Two\u2019s Official Prediction from \u2018The Model\u2019
\nNow, let\u2019s get into the full results of The Model\u2019s prediction of Semi-Final Two.
\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/250509_Alma-Bengtsson_EBU_15870-1024x683.jpg\")
Mariam Shengelia rehearsing Freedom for Georgia at St. Jakobshalle
\n16th Place \u2013 \ud83c\uddec\ud83c\uddea Georgia: Mariam Shengelia \u2013 \u201cFreedom\u201d<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/250508_Sarah-Louise-Bennett_EBU_17641-1024x683.jpg\")
Nina \u017di\u017ei\u0107 rehearsing Dobrodo\u0161li for Montenegro at St. Jakobshalle
\n15th Place \u2013 \ud83c\uddf2\ud83c\uddea Montenegro: Nina \u017di\u017ei\u0107 \u2013 \u201cDobrodo\u0161li\u201d<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/250509_Alma-Bengtsson_EBU_17477-1024x683.jpg\")
Princ rehearsing Mila for Serbia at St. Jakobshalle
\n14th Place \u2013 \ud83c\uddf7\ud83c\uddf8 Serbia: Princ \u2013 \u201cMila\u201d<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/250509_Alma-Bengtsson_EBU_16532-1024x683.jpg\")
ADONXS rehearsing Kiss Kiss Goodbye for Czechia at St. Jakobshalle
\n13th Place \u2013 \ud83c\udde8\ud83c\uddff Czechia: Adonxs \u2013 \u201cKiss Kiss Goodbye\u201d<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/250509_Alma-Bengtsson_EBU_16223-1024x683.jpg\")
Sissal rehearsing Hallucination for Denmark at St. Jakobshalle
\n12th Place \u2013 \ud83c\udde9\ud83c\uddf0 Denmark: Sissal \u2013 \u201cHallucination\u201d<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/250508_Sarah-Louise-Bennett_EBU_18269-1024x683.jpg\")
Tautumeitas second rehearsal \u2013 Latvia
\n11th Place \u2013 \ud83c\uddf1\ud83c\uddfb Latvia: Tautumeitas \u2013 \u201cBur man laimi\u201d<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/250508_Sarah-Louise-Bennett_EBU_19414-1024x683.jpg\")
Klavdia performing Asterom\u00e1ta during rehearsals for Greece
\n10th Place \u2013 \ud83c\uddec\ud83c\uddf7 Greece: Klavdia \u2013 \u201cAsteromata\u201d<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/250508_Sarah-Louise-Bennett_EBU_18687-1024x683.jpg\")
PARG second rehearsal \u2013 Armenia
\n9th Place \u2013 \ud83c\udde6\ud83c\uddf2 Armenia: Parg \u2013 \u201cSurvivor\u201d<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/250508_Sarah-Louise-Bennett_EBU_19543-1024x683.jpg\")
Katarsis second rehearsal \u2013 Lithuania
\n8th Place \u2013 \ud83c\uddf1\ud83c\uddf9 Lithuania: Katarsis \u2013 \u201cTavo akys\u201d<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/250508_Alma-Bengtsson_EBU_12384-1024x683.jpg\")
Emmy second rehearsal \u2013 Ireland
\n7th Place \u2013 \ud83c\uddee\ud83c\uddea Ireland: Emmy \u2013 \u201cLaika Party\u201d<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/250509_Alma-Bengtsson_EBU_17005-1024x683.jpg\")
Laura Thorn rehearsing La Poup\u00e9e Monte Le Son for Luxembourg at St. Jakobshalle
\n6th Place \u2013 \ud83c\uddf1\ud83c\uddfa Luxembourg: Laura Thorn \u2013 \u201cLa poup\u00e9e monte le son\u201d<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/250508_Sarah-Louise-Bennett_EBU_19841-1024x683.jpg\")
Miriana Conte second rehearsal \u2013 Malta
\n5th Place \u2013 \ud83c\uddf2\ud83c\uddf9 Malta: Miriana Conte \u2013 \u201cServing\u201d<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/250508_Sarah-Louise-Bennett_EBU_17485-1024x683.jpg\")
Go-Jo rehearsing Milkshake Man for Australia at St. Jakobshalle
\n4th Place \u2013 \ud83c\udde6\ud83c\uddfa Australia: Go-Jo \u2013 \u201cMilkshake Man\u201d<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/250508_Alma-Bengtsson_EBU_13417-1024x683.jpg\")
JJ rehearsing Wasted Love for Austria at St. Jakobshalle
\n3rd Place \u2013 \ud83c\udde6\ud83c\uddf9 Austria: JJ \u2013 \u201cWasted Love\u201d<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/250509_Alma-Bengtsson_EBU_17101-1024x683.jpg\")
Image source: Alma Bengtsson \/ EBU
\n2nd Place \u2013 \ud83c\uddee\ud83c\uddf1 Israel: Yuval Raphael \u2013 \u201cNew Day Will Rise\u201d<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/250509_Alma-Bengtsson_EBU_17692-1024x683.jpg\")
Erika Vikman rehearsing ICH KOMME for Finland at St. Jakobshalle
\nWINNER \u2013 \ud83c\uddeb\ud83c\uddee Finland: Erika Vikman \u2013 \u201cIch komme\u201d<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/James-96x96.png\")
\t<\/p>\n