A \u00a325bn annual boost to British exports is at stake for Sir Keir Starmer<\/a> as he tries to secure a Brexit reset deal<\/a> at a crucial summit on Monday<\/a>, analysis shared with The Independent reveals.<\/p>\n Removing trade barriers on goods, including food and drink and electrical items, could result in a 2.2 per cent uplift in gross domestic product in the long run, boosting the economic growth the prime minister so desperately wants to deliver, financial analysts Frontier Economics found.<\/p>\n And a separate assessment by the National Institute for Economic and Social Research (NIESR) warns that a failure to land a deal for easier trading could lead to a 2.7 per cent drop in exports by 2027, costing the UK economy<\/a> almost \u00a330bn.<\/p>\n The impact on the British economy from such a deal is expected to dwarf that of the agreements recently signed with India and the US<\/a>.<\/p>\n open image in gallery<\/p>\n Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer with President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen ahead of their bilateral meeting (PA)<\/p>\n Gordon Brown\u2019s former economic adviser Lord Jim O\u2019Neill summed up the importance of Sir Keir\u2019s summit in London: \u201cObviously, the closer and more serious we can get, the better it is for reversing our net trade losses, and importantly, net investment from EU<\/a> areas.<\/p>\n \u201cGiven the shock from Trump [tariffs] to Europe, especially on Germany, on top of the Ukraine shock and China slowdown, I think Germany [will be] more open to pro-UK trade issues than before.<\/p>\n \u201cAlso, I suspect the EU is going to give more than lip service to cross-border services sector reform now. Given UK net advantages in service sector exports, this is important to us.\u201d<\/p>\n Such reforms could make it easier for the UK to sell services to the bloc by allowing mutual recognition of qualifications so UK professionals can practice in the EU and vice versa without having a retrain.<\/p>\n NIESR\u2019s interim director Stephen Millard said the value of Monday\u2019s deal should not be underestimated. <\/p>\n He said: \u201cIn 2024 we exported roughly \u00a36.5 billion to India, roughly \u00a353.5 billion to the United States and roughly \u00a3159 billion to the European Union. It is fairly clear from those numbers that a trade deal with the European Union is much more likely to shift the dial than the deals with India and the United States.\u201d<\/p>\n open image in gallery<\/p>\n Sir Keir Starmer has said he wants to \u2018reset\u2019 relations with the EU after Brexit (Alishia Abodunde\/PA) (PA Wire)<\/p>\n His assessment was echoed by Chris Southworth, director general of the UK\u2019s largest business organisation, the International Chambers of Commerce (ICC), who noted that the trade deal signed with Donald Trump, that saw tariffs slashed on UK car and steel exports<\/a>, was a \u201cdamage limitation agreement\u201d and only accounted for 13 per cent of international Gross Domestic Product (GDP).<\/p>\n But he fears the deal to be unveiled on Monday \u201cmay not be ambitious enough\u201d especially if it only focuses on goods rather than the future growth areas of digital services.<\/p>\n It is a view shared by the Labour chair of the Commons foreign affairs committee Dame Emily Thornberry.<\/p>\n In an interview with The Independent, she called on Sir Keir to be more \u201ccourageous\u201d, adding: \u201cWe should be going further than the government currently seems to have the ambition for doing.\u201d<\/p>\n The deal is expected to include closer defence cooperation, goods and services, and a youth mobility agreement<\/a>, that would allow 18 to 30 year olds to live and work in the UK and Europe for a time-limited period. <\/p>\n Two immediate big wins could be to include the UK in the \u20ac150bn EU defence procurement fund, which would allow the government to bid for military equipment contracts and, invite them to join the EU data hub. The latter is being championed by Poland who currently have the presidency of the EU.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n![\"Prime](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Sir-Keir-Starmer-visits-Albania-l8ayp3s8.jpeg\")
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