{"id":1132161,"date":"2026-08-05T16:01:45","date_gmt":"2026-08-05T16:01:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/1132161\/"},"modified":"2026-08-05T16:01:45","modified_gmt":"2026-08-05T16:01:45","slug":"can-russias-amazon-survive-ukraines-drone-campaign","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/1132161\/","title":{"rendered":"Can \u2018Russia\u2019s Amazon\u2019 Survive Ukraine\u2019s Drone Campaign?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>A wave of Ukrainian drone attacks has knocked out more than a quarter of Wildberries\u2019 warehouse capacity, threatening to disrupt the logistics network behind Russia\u2019s largest online retailer and inflict billions of dollars in losses on the company and its sellers.<\/p>\n<p>Analysts say the attacks are unlikely to pose a serious threat to Russia\u2019s wider economy. But a prolonged campaign could drive up Wildberries\u2019 costs, delay deliveries and weaken its grip on a fiercely competitive market that has expanded rapidly since Western brands left Russia following the invasion of Ukraine.<\/p>\n<p>The campaign, which began on July 18, has repeatedly targeted facilities where merchants\u2019 goods are stored before being shipped to customers.\u00a0Kyiv has accused Wildberries of supplying the Russian military with drone components and other equipment.<\/p>\n<p>By Monday, attacks had put 14 warehouses covering more than 1.5 million square meters out of operation, according to an <a href=\"https:\/\/verstka.media\/za-polmesyacza-ukrainskie-bespilotniki-unichtozhili-bolshe-chetverti-skladskih-ploshhadej-wildberries\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">estimate<\/a> by the investigative outlet Vyorstka. That is equivalent to about 27% of the company\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnews.ru\/news\/line\/2026-06-30_wildberries_uvelichila_vmestimost\" title=\"total warehouse space\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">total warehouse space<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Wildberries is privately held, meaning there is no share price through which to gauge investor reaction. The company has also not published a comprehensive estimate of the damage caused by the strikes.<\/p>\n<p>Early assessments cited by Russian media nevertheless suggest that the financial impact could be substantial.<\/p>\n<p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Q42Gj-ukrainian-drone-strikes-on-wildberries-facilities-1.png\"\/><\/p>\n<p>The most immediate expense is the damage to Wildberries\u2019 warehouses. Forbes Russia <a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.ru\/biznes\/565776-spasenie-utopausih-kak-vyzivaet-biznes-posle-atak-na-sklady-wildberries\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">cited<\/a> analysts who estimated that rebuilding the facilities could cost about 70,000 rubles ($861) per square meter.<\/p>\n<p>Applying that estimate to the 1.5 million square meters of affected warehouse space cited by Vyorstka would put the potential rebuilding bill at 105 billion rubles ($1.29 billion).<\/p>\n<p>That would be a significant, though likely manageable, cost for the retailer. RWB, the combined Wildberries and Russ group, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.ru\/rbcfreenews\/69cc16f59a7947bdbd7cc059\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">reported<\/a> a net profit of 175 billion rubles ($2.15 billion) in 2025.<\/p>\n<p>But the attacks are also creating indirect costs.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>The loss of conveniently located warehouses is likely to force Wildberries to reroute deliveries, use longer logistics chains and secure replacement storage.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Owners of available warehouses in Russia have reportedly been reluctant to lease them to the company, prompting Wildberries to explore additional storage capacity in neighboring Kazakhstan, the Kommersant newspaper <a href=\"https:\/\/www.kommersant.ru\/doc\/8846772\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">reported<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\t\t\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/2026-07-31T180848Z_1610332944_RC26PMAEJQVC_RTRMADP_3_UKRAINE-CRISIS-RUSSIA-WILDBERRIES-KIM.JPG\" alt=\"&#10;&#9;&#9;&#9;&#9;&#9;Tatyana Kim, the CEO and co-founder of Wildberries.&#9;&#9;&#9;&#9;&#9; &#9;&#9;&#9;&#9;&#9;Wildberries Press Service via REUTERS&#9;&#9;&#9;&#9;\"\/><\/p>\n<p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tTatyana Kim, the CEO and co-founder of Wildberries.<br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tWildberries Press Service via REUTERS<\/p>\n<p>The increased risks could also push up rental and insurance costs, although the overall financial impact is difficult to calculate.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>A potentially more serious problem is the destruction of goods belonging to merchants that use the platform.<\/p>\n<p>Forbes Russia <a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.ru\/biznes\/565776-spasenie-utopausih-kak-vyzivaet-biznes-posle-atak-na-sklady-wildberries\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">estimated<\/a> sellers\u2019 potential losses at between 214.9 billion and 279.6 billion rubles ($2.64 billion-$3.44 billion). The calculation was based on compensation paid after a 2024 fire at Wildberries\u2019 112,000-square-meter warehouse in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.themoscowtimes.com\/2024\/01\/13\/blaze-engulfs-russian-online-retailers-warehouse-a83715\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">St. Petersburg<\/a>, when sellers received almost 35 billion rubles ($431 million) for destroyed stock.<\/p>\n<p>Wildberries CEO Tatyana Kim <a href=\"https:\/\/t.me\/kimtatyana2024\/777\" rel=\"nofollow\">said<\/a> that even though the company was not legally required to compensate sellers for goods destroyed in this summer\u2019s drone attacks, it was discussing ways to provide them with financial assistance.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Even if Wildberries pays partial compensation, the losses could slow activity on the platform by leaving some sellers unable to replace their stock and continue trading.<\/p>\n<p>For its part, the Russian government said it was preparing measures to support affected sellers. The RBC business news outlet <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.ru\/technology_and_media\/30\/07\/2026\/6a6b80d19a7947a127b2960b\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">reported<\/a> that these could include compensation based on the cost of the goods destroyed.<\/p>\n<p>If the government were to cover losses near the midpoint of Forbes Russia\u2019s estimate, compensation could cost about 250 billion rubles ($3.08 billion). That would be significant but not transformative for the wider economy.<\/p>\n<p>Russia\u2019s original 2026 budget <a href=\"https:\/\/www.themoscowtimes.com\/2025\/10\/07\/more-taxes-for-more-war-unpacking-russias-2026-budget-a90736\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">envisaged<\/a> a deficit of 3.79 trillion rubles ($46.6 billion), equivalent to 1.6% of gross domestic product. An additional 250 billion rubles would increase the deficit target by about 6.6%, to roughly 4.04 trillion rubles ($49.7 billion), or around 1.7% of GDP.<\/p>\n<p>The ultimate cost will depend largely on how long the attacks continue, how many more warehouses are damaged and how quickly Wildberries can restore or replace its lost logistics capacity.<\/p>\n<p>\t\t\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/2026-07-25T112354Z_437404726_RC2ZKMAST4R7_RTRMADP_3_UKRAINE-CRISIS-RUSSIA-WILDBERRIES.jpg\" alt=\"&#10;&#9;&#9;&#9;&#9;&#9;Satellite imagery shows smoke rising from a Wildberries facility in St. Petersburg.&#9;&#9;&#9;&#9;&#9; &#9;&#9;&#9;&#9;&#9;Planet Labs PBC via REUTERS&#9;&#9;&#9;&#9;\"\/><\/p>\n<p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tSatellite imagery shows smoke rising from a Wildberries facility in St. Petersburg.<br \/>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tPlanet Labs PBC via REUTERS<\/p>\n<p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t <strong>Wartime growth<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Russia\u2019s online retail sector has thrived since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.<\/p>\n<p>After Western brands left the Russian market in 2022, local sellers rushed to fill the gap with domestic and Chinese alternatives.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Online marketplaces such as Wildberries \u2014 often described as Russia\u2019s answer to Amazon \u2014 gave them a platform to reach customers across the country.<\/p>\n<p>As a result, Wildberries\u2019 gross merchandise value, which measures the total value of goods and services sold through the platform, nearly tripled from <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.ru\/rbcfreenews\/61f36bcc9a7947443a8c62fa\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">844 billion rubles<\/a> ($10.4 billion) in 2021 to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vedomosti.ru\/business\/news\/2024\/04\/24\/1033768-oborot-wildberries\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">2.5 trillion rubles<\/a> ($30.8 billion) in 2023.<\/p>\n<p>After the company merged with outdoor advertising group Russ in 2024, the combined group, RWB, reported turnover of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.ru\/rbcfreenews\/69cc16f59a7947bdbd7cc059\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">6.1 trillion rubles<\/a> ($75 billion) in 2025.<\/p>\n<p>The attacks on Wildberries\u2019 warehouses and distribution network now threaten to disrupt that rapid growth.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>A prolonged campaign could also erode the company\u2019s market share, which is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sostav.ru\/publication\/dolya-marketplejsov-v-onlajn-torgovle-priblizitsya-k-80-83402.html\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">forecast<\/a> to reach 45% of Russian online marketplace turnover in 2026, compared with 32% for its closest rival, Ozon.<\/p>\n<p>Still, analysts say the attacks are unlikely to paralyze the Russian economy at their current scale.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Economist Dmitry Nekrasov said the attacks could cause serious problems for sellers and create damaging optics for the Kremlin, but were unlikely to pose a significant threat to the economy or even the retail sector because the market remained highly competitive.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cLet us assume that the total losses, including warehouses that may still be destroyed, reach 200 billion rubles. That is slightly less than 0.1% of Russia\u2019s GDP,\u201d he said in a recent <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=JAV9or98k34&amp;t=18s\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">interview<\/a> with the Zhivoy Gvozd YouTube channel.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>And unlike attacks on oil refineries, whose effects can spread to other sectors, the strikes on Wildberries were unlikely to cause cascading disruption across the wider economy, he said.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIt [Wildberries] has competitors and there are many smaller players in the market\u2026 There is therefore little scope [for these attacks to cause] broader economic disruption,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p><strong>A Message from The Moscow Times:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Dear readers,<\/p>\n<p>We are facing unprecedented challenges. Russia&#8217;s Prosecutor General&#8217;s Office has designated The Moscow Times as an &#8220;undesirable&#8221; organization, criminalizing our work and putting our staff at risk of prosecution. 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