{"id":113506,"date":"2025-05-19T05:04:09","date_gmt":"2025-05-19T05:04:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/113506\/"},"modified":"2025-05-19T05:04:09","modified_gmt":"2025-05-19T05:04:09","slug":"chinas-retail-sales-disappoint-as-stimulus-fails-to-spur-demand-industrial-output-defies-tariffs","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/113506\/","title":{"rendered":"China&#8217;s retail sales disappoint as stimulus fails to spur demand; industrial output defies tariffs"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Citizens are shopping at a supermarket in Nanjing, East China&#8217;s Jiangsu province, on March 9, 2024.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Costfoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images<\/p>\n<p>China&#8217;s retail sales growth slowed in April, data from the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.stats.gov.cn\/sj\/zxfb\/202505\/t20250519_1959864.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">National Bureau of Statistics<\/a> showed Monday, signaling that consumption remains a worry for the world&#8217;s second-largest economy.<\/p>\n<p>Retail sales <a href=\"https:\/\/www.stats.gov.cn\/sj\/zxfb\/202505\/t20250519_1959858.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">rose 5.1% from a year earlier<\/a> in April, missing analysts&#8217; estimates of 5.5% growth, according to a Reuters poll. Sales had <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/04\/16\/chinas-first-quarter-gdp-growth-at-as-trade-war-heats-up.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">grown by 5.9% in the previous<\/a> month.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.stats.gov.cn\/sj\/zxfb\/202505\/t20250519_1959862.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Industrial output<\/a> grew 6.1% year on year in April, stronger than analysts&#8217; expectations for a 5.5% rise, while <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/04\/16\/chinas-first-quarter-gdp-growth-at-as-trade-war-heats-up.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">slowing down from the 7.7% jump<\/a> in March, indicating the impact from U.S. tariffs was not as harsh as was being expected.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;We should be aware that there are still many unstable and uncertain factors in [the] external environment,&#8221; the statistics bureau said. &#8220;The foundation for sustained economic recovery needs to be further consolidated.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Fixed-asset investment for the first four months this year, which includes property and infrastructure investment, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.stats.gov.cn\/sj\/zxfb\/202505\/t20250519_1959860.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">rose 4.0%<\/a>, slightly lower than analysts&#8217; expectations for a 4.2% growth in a Reuters poll.<\/p>\n<p>The urban unemployment rate in April eased to 5.1% from 5.2% in March, at a time when U.S.-China trade war had led economists to warn about substantial job losses in China.<\/p>\n<p>U.S. President Donald Trump had placed tariffs of 145% on imports from China that came into effect in April, while Beijing had retaliated with 125% levies on American imports.<\/p>\n<p>Answering questions on the impact of the ongoing trade conflict with the U.S., the statistics bureau spokesperson Fu Linghui stressed Beijing&#8217;s efforts aimed at diversifying exports to other regions, noting that the trade figures in April pointed to overall resilience.<\/p>\n<p>China&#8217;s exports surged <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/05\/09\/chinas-exports-jump-us-tariffs-imports-tumble.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">more than expected in April<\/a>, as a jump in shipments to Southeast Asian countries helped it offset a sharp drop in outbound goods to the U.S.<\/p>\n<p>In April, the U.S.-bound shipments plunged over 21% from a year earlier. In the first four months this year, China&#8217;s exports to the U.S. dropped 2.5%, according to customs data.<\/p>\n<p>Fu added that the recent reduction in the mutual tariffs would benefit trade for both sides, while cautioning that domestic demand, including consumption, still lacked momentum.<\/p>\n<p>Automobile sales grew just 0.7% last month from a year earlier, compared to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.stats.gov.cn\/sj\/zxfb\/202504\/t20250416_1959317.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">5.5% jump in March<\/a>, despite an <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/03\/11\/chinas-41-billion-plan-to-boost-consumption-is-just-a-start.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">expanded program<\/a> that subsidizes consumers and businesses to trade in vehicles and other select products, including smartphones and home appliances.<\/p>\n<p>Within fixed asset investment, the drag from real estate worsened, falling <a href=\"https:\/\/www.stats.gov.cn\/sj\/zxfb\/202505\/t20250519_1959865.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">10.3% for the year as of April<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>The real estate sector remained in a period of &#8220;adjustment&#8221; and pressure on the sector was still large in certain regions, said Fu.<\/p>\n<p>China&#8217;s CSI 300 index fell 0.39% while the Chinese offshore yuan was little changed at 7.2133 against the greenback.<\/p>\n<p><a id=\"headline0\"\/>Cautious growth upgrades<\/p>\n<p>Trade-war fears have receded after a meeting of U.S. and Chinese trade representatives in Switzerland earlier this month led to a lower set of levies between the world&#8217;s two largest economies. Beijing and Washington agreed to roll back most tariffs for 90 days, allowing some room for further negotiation to reach a more lasting deal.<\/p>\n<p>That prompted a slew of global investment banks to raise their forecasts for China&#8217;s economic growth this year while paring back expectations for more proactive stimulus as Beijing strives to reach its growth target of around 5%.<\/p>\n<p>The trade truce came as the economic toll of tariffs on the economy was becoming difficult to ignore.<\/p>\n<p>China&#8217;s factory activity had dropped to a 16-month low in April, with a gauge on new export orders sliding to its lowest since December 2022, a stark contrast to the industrial output data, indicating dampened sentiment over tariffs.<\/p>\n<p>While industrial output measures the value of goods produced in sectors such as manufacturing, mining and utilities, the manufacturing <a href=\"https:\/\/www.stats.gov.cn\/zs\/tjws\/tjzb\/202301\/t20230101_1903972.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">purchasing managers&#8217; index measures enterprises&#8217; sentiment<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>The wholesale prices posted the steepest drop in six months in April, while consumer prices fell for a third moth, underscoring the persistent deflationary pressure in the economy.<\/p>\n<p>Businesses frontloading U.S.-bound shipments before the end of the 90-day window will likely support China&#8217;s exports and industrial output in the coming months, Lisheng Wang, China economist at Goldman Sachs said in a note, following the latest data release.<\/p>\n<p>Indicators show container bookings jumped last week following the tariff ceasefire, Tommy Xie, managing director and head of Asia macro research at OCBC Bank said in a note Monday.<\/p>\n<p>The seven-day average container booking volume as of May 14 spiked by 277% compared to the week ending May 5, Xie said, citing data from container tracking software provider Vizion.<\/p>\n<p>Goldman Sachs last week improved its forecast for China&#8217;s export volume growth this year to 0% from a 5% decline, expecting the economy to expand by 4.6% in 2025, from the previous baseline of 4.0%.<\/p>\n<p>Wang, however, cautioned that &#8220;near-term growth strength&#8221; could be at the cost of &#8220;payback effects,&#8221; calling for more policy easing to stabilize growth, employment and market sentiment.<\/p>\n<p>The Chinese government has implemented <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/04\/25\/china-pledges-to-ramp-up-targeted-support-for-businesses-as-us-trade-war-hits.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">a raft of stimulus measures<\/a> to stimulate consumption across different sectors and support businesses impacted by the tariffs and bolster employment.<\/p>\n<p>Earlier this month, the People&#8217;s Bank of China announced to cut the seven-day reverse repurchase rates by 10 basis points to 1.4% from 1.5%. That will bring down its main policy rate, known as the loan prime rate, by around 10 basis points, according to the central bank&#8217;s Governor Pan Gongsheng.<\/p>\n<p>The PBOC is expected to announce the one-year and five-year LPR for May on Tuesday.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Citizens are shopping at a supermarket in Nanjing, East China&#8217;s Jiangsu province, on March 9, 2024.\u00a0 Costfoto |&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":113507,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3090],"tags":[21350,51,3085,1395,32,4750,1700,22343,2441,1831,16,15,49],"class_list":{"0":"post-113506","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-economy","8":"tag-breaking-news-asia","9":"tag-business","10":"tag-business-news","11":"tag-china","12":"tag-donald-trump","13":"tag-economic-events","14":"tag-economy","15":"tag-market-insider","16":"tag-markets","17":"tag-stock-markets","18":"tag-uk","19":"tag-united-kingdom","20":"tag-united-states"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@uk\/114532756794518700","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/113506","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=113506"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/113506\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/113507"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=113506"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=113506"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=113506"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}