{"id":1151081,"date":"2026-08-16T02:22:23","date_gmt":"2026-08-16T02:22:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/1151081\/"},"modified":"2026-08-16T02:22:23","modified_gmt":"2026-08-16T02:22:23","slug":"super-el-nino-could-doom-the-amazon-rainforest","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/1151081\/","title":{"rendered":"\u2018Super\u2019 El Nino could doom the Amazon Rainforest"},"content":{"rendered":"

Drought. Fire. Mass illegal logging.<\/p>\n

Now, researchers warn another \u201cSuper\u201d El Ni\u00f1o could doom the Amazon rainforest.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe southern Amazon is close to a tipping point,\u201d Brazilian Earth system scientist Carlos Nobre tells the science journal Nature<\/a>. <\/p>\n

He\u2019s been flying over the dense landscape for two decades, measuring its health.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s been shrinking.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s been browning.<\/p>\n

Now, sensors show the highly stressed \u201clungs of the planet\u201d have begun to emit more carbon dioxide than they can absorb. <\/p>\n

The plants are essentially overworked and overtired.<\/p>\n

\"\u2018Uncharted<\/p>\n

\u201cThis is exactly how a tipping point will actually happen,\u201d adds Earth-system analyst Nico Wunderling. <\/p>\n

\u201cWe will see more extreme events \u2014 due to El Ni\u00f1o, for instance. They will become more severe. And then the recovery time for the trees is just not enough.\u201d<\/p>\n

Now, another El Ni\u00f1o is brewing.<\/p>\n

A vast patch of the Pacific Ocean is heating up.<\/p>\n

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) says there\u2019s an 80 per cent chance it will burst historic boundaries to become \u201cSuper\u201d \u2013 the most powerful in 150 years \u2013 by November.<\/p>\n

The last one \u2013 a regular-sized event in 2023 \u2013 dried up rivers and killed off undergrowth. This produced the most devastating fire season in a quarter of a century.<\/p>\n

The rainforest is yet to recover.<\/p>\n

Now, it faces another.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf this next El Ni\u00f1o really is as strong as we think it will be, it might result in things like huge wildfires in the Amazon, spreading across areas that were unimaginable before,\u201d warns Brazilian environmentalist Bernardo Flores.<\/p>\n

Nature reports the trend threatens to transform the landscape. Once the moisture tipping point is reached, it would take a few short decades for 80 per cent of the Amazon\u2019s remaining trees and undergrowth to be replaced by grassy savannah.<\/p>\n

Changing times<\/b><\/p>\n

Like Europe, North America and Australia, the Amazon – one of the New 7 Wonders of Nature – is heating up.<\/p>\n

The tropical rainforest used to experience just a few hot, dry days each year.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s now measured in weeks.<\/p>\n

By the end of the century, researchers warn the dry season could grow to a solid five months.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhen these hot droughts occur, that\u2019s the climate \u2026 beyond the boundary of what we consider to be tropical forest<\/a> now,\u201d says researcher Jeff Chambers. <\/p>\n

These are conditions not experienced on the planet for the past 10 million years, researchers note. That\u2019s when temperatures were, on average 14C greater than they are today.<\/p>\n

The scientists have been measuring water and sap densities in trees, humidity levels and soil moisture for the past 30 years.<\/p>\n

Low moisture prompts the trees to close the pores in their leaves. This halts evaporation. But it also stops the CO2 absorption that produces healing and growth.<\/p>\n

Fast-growing tropical rainforest trees cannot sustain this abnormal strain for long.<\/p>\n

Researchers say such events cause the rainforest\u2019s \u201cstress hormone\u201d to be released<\/a> into the air 122 per cent more than normal: a distinctly peppery-smelling compound of sesquiterpene. <\/p>\n

And dehydrated tree sap can quickly develop \u201cblood clots\u201d.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf there are enough embolisms, the tree just dies,\u201d Chambers explains.<\/p>\n

This happened in 2015.<\/p>\n

Then 2023 produced the most intense drought ever recorded for the region.<\/p>\n

Now, 2026 is trending to become even worse.<\/p>\n

\u201cBetween El Ni\u00f1o events, which occur every two to seven years, the rainforest can revert to the original non-stressed emissions,\u201d says Max Planck Institute for Chemistry<\/a> researcher Jonathan Willians. <\/p>\n

\u201cHowever, climate models suggest that El Ni\u00f1o events will increase in frequency and intensity in this century, so these emissions may become a permanent feature of the region.\u201d<\/p>\n

The Amazon rainforest\u2019s \u201ctipping point\u201d is when the trees no longer have enough time between drying events to heal sufficiently.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe may have already crossed the tipping point,\u201d Flores tells Nature. <\/p>\n

\u201cWe don\u2019t know. But the thing is, if we have crossed it, or we might cross it very soon, this is very concerning.\u201d<\/p>\n

Rewind to fast forward<\/b><\/p>\n

Forest researchers are striving to determine what comes next.<\/p>\n

Can forests recover? Can the damage be mitigated? How do we know what\u2019s happening?<\/p>\n

The best prophet of the future is the past.<\/p>\n

Which is why the fossilised forests of Wyoming have become the focus of intense study.<\/p>\n

It reached a tipping point some 56 million years ago.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s when the planet\u2019s average temperature appears to have gradually warmed by 6C. Likely thanks to greater-than-average volcanic activity.<\/p>\n

\u201cThose Wyoming forests lost 60 per cent of their canopy<\/a> during this period,\u201d says Professor Regan Dunn. <\/p>\n

\u201cIt took them well over 100,000 years to recover.\u201d<\/p>\n

That epoch, known as the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), is the closest known natural event to loosely parallel what\u2019s happening now.<\/p>\n

\u201cAlthough humans are releasing carbon dioxide roughly 10 times faster than the planet\u2019s natural processes did then,\u201d Professor Dunn adds.<\/p>\n

But the natural historic record may help researchers recognise what a tipping point looks like.<\/p>\n

So they\u2019ve been studying fragments of fossilised leaf litter.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s all about their cells.<\/p>\n

\u201cLeaves that grow in shade develop longer, more elongated cells as they stretch out seeking sunlight. Those exposed to more sun develop shorter, rounder ones,\u201d Professor Dunn explains.<\/p>\n

At first, the forest thrived. Higher C02 levels meant more plant food.<\/p>\n

\u201cThat flourishing forest did not last, however,\u201d she adds. \u201cAs temperatures climbed, heat and drought overwhelmed the benefits of higher carbon dioxide levels. The canopy rapidly thinned as trees died, and it remained much thinner for over 100,000 years.\u201d<\/p>\n

The entire landscape changed. <\/p>\n

Open plains expanded. Rivers, their banks now free to be eroded, changed course. <\/p>\n

\u201cHigher carbon dioxide levels like the world is experiencing now can stimulate plant growth, but only while temperatures and water remain within the limits that trees can tolerate,\u201d Professor Dunn concludes.<\/p>\n

\u201cBeyond those limits, heat, drought, insects, pathogens and wildfire can overwhelm any fertilisation effect.\u201d<\/p>\n

Jamie Seidel is a freelance writer<\/p>\n

Read related topics:Amazon<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Drought. Fire. Mass illegal logging. 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