{"id":11650,"date":"2025-04-11T19:31:11","date_gmt":"2025-04-11T19:31:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/11650\/"},"modified":"2025-04-11T19:31:11","modified_gmt":"2025-04-11T19:31:11","slug":"as-the-u-s-retreats-from-its-role-as-wests-nuclear-protector-france-looks-to-fill-the-void","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/11650\/","title":{"rendered":"As the U.S. retreats from its role as West\u2019s nuclear protector, France looks to fill the void"},"content":{"rendered":"

Open this photo in gallery:<\/a><\/p>\n

A crew member exits from an aircraft on France’s nuclear-powered aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle, at Limassol port, Cyprus, on May 10, 2021.Petros Karadjias\/The Associated Press<\/p>\n

On a clear morning late last month, a Dassault Rafale fighter jet roared over the south of France carrying what looked to be a locked and loaded nuclear missile. The flight was timed for a moment when the French military knew Russian satellites would be passing over the Montpellier region.<\/p>\n

That the Russians were watching as France test-fired one of its nuclear-capable cruise missiles was nothing new, as Paris almost always makes sure that Moscow can see what it\u2019s capable of. What was unusual about the March 25 exercise was that the U.S. Air Force chose to fly a refuelling tanker over the length of France that morning, giving the Americans a bird\u2019s-eye view as their French allies practised carrying out a nuclear strike on an unnamed adversary.<\/p>\n

It was a reminder that France, too, is a formidable nuclear power and cannot be ignored.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere\u2019s a huge element of messaging,\u201d said \u00c9tienne Marcuz, an expert on France\u2019s nuclear forces, referring to both the French drill and the overflight by the U.S. tanker. \u201cWe don\u2019t know if [the U.S. pilot] was monitoring the exercise, but we know that other countries, even our allies, are monitoring what we are doing.\u201d<\/p>\n

France\u2019s nuclear arsenal \u2013 its 290 warheads make it the fourth-largest nuclear power in the world \u2013 is suddenly a hot topic in Europe. The continent is considering whether the French can step in and provide protection if the U.S. nuclear umbrella can no longer <\/b>be relied upon with a seemingly hostile Trump administration in the White House.<\/p>\n

Talk of nuclear weapons has grown dramatically in Europe <\/b>over the past three years, as Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly referenced his country\u2019s arsenal during the war<\/a> in Ukraine. Russia and the United States each have more than 5,000 warheads, while China, the third-largest nuclear power, is estimated to possess 600.<\/p>\n

Unlike Britain, which has the fifth-largest arsenal but relies on the U.S. for maintenance and technical support, France\u2019s nuclear deterrent has been kept completely independent. France can deploy nuclear weapons from the air as well as the sea, while Britain\u2019s arsenal can only be fired by its four Trident nuclear submarines.<\/p>\n

French President Emmanuel Macron says<\/a> his country is willing to step in and fill the void if the U.S. is no longer willing.<\/p>\n

\u201cI\u2019ve decided to open the strategic debate on the protection by our deterrence of our allies on the European continent,\u201d Mr. Macron said in a March 6 video posted to his social media channels. \u201cI want to believe that the United States will remain by our side, but we need to be ready if that were not the case.\u201d<\/p>\n

Russian Foreign Affairs Minister Sergey Lavrov criticized the speech as revealing \u201cParis\u2019s ambitions to become the nuclear patron of all of Europe\u201d and warned that \u201cthis will not lead to strengthening the security of either France itself or its allies.\u201d But European leaders including Polish President Donald Tusk and Friedrich Merz, Germany\u2019s next chancellor, have indicated they would welcome France\u2019s nuclear protection. Neither country has nuclear weapons.<\/p>\n

The debate over how Europe can defend itself gained added urgency after U.S. Vice-President JD Vance \u2013 in a leaked group chat<\/a> among senior Trump administration officials about a military operation against Yemen\u2019s Houthi rebels \u2013 wrote, \u201cI just hate bailing Europe out again.\u201d<\/p>\n

Although U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio insisted Thursday that the U.S. would remain in the NATO military alliance, many in Europe are preparing for exactly the opposite. The U.S. has an estimated 100 nuclear bombs stationed at NATO bases in Germany, Italy, Turkey, Belgium and the Netherlands. The fear is that if the U.S. leaves the alliance, it will take its nuclear shield home along with its troops.<\/p>\n

The possibility of France losing its American ally was contemplated by former French president Charles de Gaulle as far back as 1959, when he decided his country needed a French-built, independent nuclear arsenal <\/b>\u2013 even though the U.S. and the Soviet Union had established a Cold War balance of power that made war in Europe unthinkable.<\/p>\n

\u201cWho can say whether, in the future \u2026 the two powers with a monopoly on nuclear weapons will not agree to divide the world between them?\u201d Mr. de Gaulle once said. (China, India, Pakistan, Israel and North Korea have joined the club of nuclear powers over the intervening decades.)<\/p>\n

\u201cToday, everybody, every politician, from the extreme left to the extreme right, is quoting Mr. de Gaulle, but at the time everybody was criticizing him,\u201d said Guillaume Garnier, a former military engineer who is now an associate research fellow at IFRI, an international affairs think tank in Paris. \u201cFrance\u2019s nuclear deterrence is linked to France\u2019s democracy. Only the elected president is supposed to have the legitimacy to press the button.\u201d<\/p>\n

That\u2019s part of the debate now facing Europe. While U.S. and British nuclear protection was considered part of NATO\u2019s Article 5 mutual-defence clause, France always kept its systems separate. One or more new security pacts may be required to reassure France\u2019s allies that Paris can indeed fill the U.S. role.<\/p>\n

Alain Richard, a former French defence minister, said the situation in Europe today reminds him of 1991 and the collapse of the Soviet Union. The Warsaw Pact alliance suddenly ceased to exist, and the countries of the former communist bloc found themselves scrambling to make new security arrangements, with many eventually choosing to join their old adversary, NATO.<\/p>\n

Mr. Richard said he expected Europe and Canada to maintain as many of NATO\u2019s structures as possible, even if the U.S. and conceivably Turkey \u2013 another member state that has taken an authoritarian turn \u2013 withdrew.<\/p>\n

But with the U.S. now providing more than half of NATO\u2019s conventional firepower, there would be a need for France and Britain to provide a nuclear backstop for the shrunken alliance. And only France can offer that protection without U.S. help.<\/p>\n

Mr. Richard said France offered to extend nuclear protection to its European allies several times in the past but was laughed off. \u201cIt seemed so unbalanced, so queer, to most of them, because they didn\u2019t have any reason to doubt the American deterrent,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

But it\u2019s far from clear whether the rest of Europe is willing to accept France and Britain as the continent\u2019s new leaders. \u201cI can see two little elephants \u2013 France and the U.K. \u2013 who would think of themselves as leaders and be resented by all the others,\u201d Mr. Richard said.<\/p>\n

There\u2019s also concern about the rise of the far right in French politics. Mr. Macron is barred from running again after his second term expires in 2027. Far-right firebrand Marine Le Pen was leading in most opinion polls before she was convicted last week on embezzlement charges and barred from running for office<\/a> for the next five years.<\/p>\n

Ms. Le Pen, who is appealing her conviction, opposes extending France\u2019s nuclear shield to its allies. \u201cIt must not be shared, let alone delegated,\u201d she said last month.<\/p>\n

Mr. Marcuz, the nuclear arms expert, said the possibility of Ms. Le Pen gaining control of France\u2019s nuclear weapons gets raised regularly \u2013 and nervously \u2013 in his conversations with colleagues from other European countries.<\/p>\n

Canada, meanwhile, rarely gets mentioned in the discussion of how Europe would defend itself without the U.S.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe will have difficulties to protect ourselves against Russia without the U.S.A. So no, Canada can\u2019t really be protected by Europe,\u201d said Mr. Garnier, the former military engineer, referring to Europe\u2019s conventional forces. He added, with a laugh, \u201cThe only thing that could protect you would be the nuclear deterrence of France and the United Kingdom.\u201d<\/p>\n

Mr. Marcuz said that\u2019s not as far-fetched as it sounds. He pointed to last month\u2019s highly publicized visit to Halifax by the Tourville, a French nuclear-powered attack submarine, amid Mr. Trump\u2019s talk of annexing Canada.<\/p>\n

The timing of the visit \u201cmight be a coincidence,\u201d Mr. Marcuz said. \u201cBut the fact that they chose to talk about it \u2013 this is messaging too.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Open this photo in gallery: A crew member exits from an aircraft on France’s nuclear-powered aircraft carrier Charles…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":11651,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5309],"tags":[8047,2000,299,36],"class_list":{"0":"post-11650","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-france","8":"tag-aud-url","9":"tag-eu","10":"tag-europe","11":"tag-france"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@uk\/114320997551314227","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11650","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11650"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11650\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/11651"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11650"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11650"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11650"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}