![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/1f09615b-646f-4111-831f-e5dad2adc072-Australian-Retirement-Trust-2-.jpg\"\/)
Australian Retirement Trust has added to the trade as the yen weakened, betting markets are underpricing Bank of Japan rate hikes. (ART pic)
\nMELBOURNE: Australia\u2019s second-largest pension has built its biggest overweight position in the Japanese yen in years, betting that markets are underpricing Bank of Japan interest rate hikes. <\/p>\n
Australian Retirement Trust, which manages about A$370 billion (US$265 billion) of savings, has spent the past six months adding to the trade as the yen weakened toward 160 per dollar \u2013 funded partly by trimming its exposure to the greenback, Jimmy Louca, a senior portfolio manager, said in an interview.<\/p>\n
The move is a rare bullish bet on the yen when many investors are looking to sell it. The currency hit a 40-year low last month as traders bet the BOJ will be slow to raise rates while energy costs stay elevated. Louca thinks the market only got part of it right \u2013 the drag from higher energy prices is priced in, but the odds of BOJ rate hikes look too low.<\/p>\n
\u201cAny reversion in those two factors should support the yen,\u201d he said on Tuesday. \u201cWe\u2019ve actually now moved to position ourselves overweight in the Japanese yen, which looks very cheap.\u201d<\/p>\n
Swaps are pricing in about an 80% chance of a BOJ rate hike in September, with a move fully priced by October, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Louca sees scope for the central bank to raise rates next month and potentially signal two hikes before higher energy prices complicate its path, particularly if the Middle East conflict escalates after the US midterm elections in November.<\/p>\n
\u201cIf they deliver mostly on that, I think the market could move higher in terms of Japanese yields,\u201d Louca said.<\/p>\n
The overweight yen position is part of ART\u2019s dynamic asset allocation program, which applies across all its diversified options. In the fund\u2019s high-growth option, the trade accounts for about half a percentage point.<\/p>\n
Louca sees the fair value for dollar-yen at around 150, potentially reaching the high 140s. The yen is currently at around 159.21.<\/p>\n
He also draws a contrast between US and Japanese intervention in currency and bond markets. In Japan, he says authorities are essentially buying time until higher interest rates can support the yen. In the US, efforts to hold down Treasury yields are going against underlying fundamentals, he said.<\/p>\n
Underweight US<\/strong><\/p>\n That skepticism toward US assets is reflected in ART\u2019s bond portfolio. The fund has an underweight of about half a percentage point in US Treasuries amid above-target inflation, resilient growth and competition for capital from the AI investment boom \u2013 factors Louca sees pushing term premiums and yields higher.<\/p>\n \u201cWe view the latest Operation Twist from the Treasury Department as only delaying rather than preventing further upward pressure on yields,\u201d Louca said. \u201cWe would see 30 years having, you know, further upward momentum toward that 5.5% mark. I think the market is starting to move there in terms of the debasement view.\u201d<\/p>\n US 30-year borrowing costs touched a near two-decade high last week, before the Treasury surprised markets with plans to increase buybacks of longer-dated debt. On Wednesday, the 10-year yield was little changed at 4.63%, while the 30-year was at 5.17%.<\/p>\n Australia\u2019s A$4.4 trillion pension system is the world\u2019s fastest-growing pool of retirement savings. Funds face close regulatory scrutiny, including an annual performance test that measures returns against key benchmarks. With about half of the money invested offshore, managing currency risk is crucial for investment chiefs who need to pay members in Australian dollars.<\/p>\n Still, Louca said the US dollar remains an important diversifier. ART still has significant exposure to the greenback because of its reserve currency status. But he sees a risk that efforts to suppress nominal yields could fuel inflation and weaken the dollar.<\/p>\n \u201cYou can\u2019t have your cake and eat it too,\u201d Louca said.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Australian Retirement Trust has added to the trade as the yen weakened, betting markets are underpricing Bank of…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":1169674,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[3093],"tags":[292237,48378,51,474,2074,2499,16,15,94570],"class_list":["post-1169673","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-personal-finance","tag-australian-retirement-trust","tag-bank-of-japan","tag-business","tag-finance","tag-pension","tag-personal-finance","tag-uk","tag-united-kingdom","tag-yen"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@uk\/117159649266713817","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1169673","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1169673"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1169673\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1169674"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1169673"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1169673"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1169673"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}