After a relatively cheery summer in which he announced a range of eye-catching cost of living policies, Andy Burnham may find his return to parliament this week to be a rude awakening.<\/p>\n
While the new prime minister has enjoyed some success in the polls, he is faced with many of the same problems that stymied Keir Starmer and has some difficult and unpopular choices to make<\/a>.<\/p>\n North Sea oil and gas<\/p>\n The Rosebank oilfield and the Jackdaw gasfield have been in limbo for a year after a court case ruled the consent given to drill by the previous Conservative government was unlawful. Now, it is in the hands of the energy secretary, Miatta Fahnbulleh, to make the quasi-judicial decision to allow the drilling to start.<\/p>\n Burnham has promised to take a \u201cpragmatic\u201d approach to North Sea oil and gas as the unions complain about job losses <\/a>caused by Labour\u2019s manifesto promise to end all oil and gas licences and the Iran crisis tightens supply of gas around the globe.<\/p>\n It has been reported Burnham will direct his energy secretary to approve the Jackdaw gasfield. Industry estimates suggest the Jackdaw gasfield could supply roughly 6% of the UK\u2019s future gas output. But this will not impact bills, as gas is sold on a global market. He is said to be less sure about allowing Rosebank, which the former energy secretary Ed Miliband, who is now foreign secretary, referred to as \u201cclimate vandalism\u201d.<\/p>\n He faces a revolt<\/a> from left-of-centre Labour MPs and the Green party\u2019s outspoken leader, Zack Polanski, will undoubtedly make hay out of the decision. It is also a difficult choice to make after a summer of record-breaking heat, exacerbated by climate breakdown.<\/p>\n Protests against North Sea drilling outside the Treasury in Westminster this month. Photograph: Vuk Valcic\/Zuma Press Wire\/ShutterstockFace-to-face with Donald Trump<\/p>\n Burnham is due to meet Donald Trump in September at the UN general assembly in New York City.<\/p>\n It may be hard to break the ice; when he was mayor of Manchester, he previously referred to Trump as \u201cpoisonous\u201d and said he would not be welcome in the city. The US president has disparagingly referred to Burnham as the \u201cmayor of a town\u201d.<\/p>\n But the pair may get along. They had a friendly phone conversation, with Burnham saying : \u201cWe had a good phone call on my first day in office and looking forward to meeting in person.\u201d Commenting on the call, Trump said approvingly: \u201cHe said he\u2019s going to open up North Sea oil. If he does that, you\u2019re going to be a wealthy country.\u201d<\/p>\n Rather than oil and gas, Burnham will be hoping to discuss the war in Ukraine with the president. He recently met Volodymyr Zelenskyy<\/a> in Kyiv and promised to drum up more international support for the country.<\/p>\n Burnham wants to talk Ukraine with Trump after meeting Zelenskyy in Kyiv. Photograph: Ukrinform\/ShutterstockDonations and electoral reform<\/p>\n One of his most pressing challenges is the electoral reform bill, which returns to parliament this week. Burnham has previously backed a cap<\/a> on individual donations as low as \u00a3500,000 to stop the mega-rich influencing UK politics. But now he has reportedly dropped this cap altogether after being lobbied by the unions. The measure would have been a key tool in stopping Reform, which relies on a few wealthy donors<\/a>.<\/p>\n Another issue that will crop up in this bill is electoral reform, which Burnham has also previously backed. Nearly 100 Labour MPs are supporting an amendment which asks the prime minister to set up a commission on electoral reform in the first 100 days of his government. The Liberal Democrats<\/a> will also take the opportunity to pressure Burnham on this.<\/p>\n Ed Davey, the Lib Dem leader, said: \u201cIf Andy Burnham fails to change the political system as PM he will be remembered as another Starmer but with a decent social media team.\u201d<\/p>\n Labour conference<\/p>\n A natural showman, Burnham might be looking forward to his first Labour conference as prime minister. The event, happening at the end of September, will demonstrate how good he is at bringing together members. He will also hope to avoid any votes that show the members have a different view to the government. Starmer struggled last year<\/a> after a successful motion that labeled Israel\u2019s actions in Gaza as a genocide, a definition he did not accept.<\/p>\n Immigration<\/p>\n This will be a big one for Burnham as he tries to combat Reform, who have made immigration their main campaigning point. The numbers are trending down<\/a>, with net migration at its lowest since the Covid-19 pandemic, and the number of asylum seekers in hotels has halved in a year<\/a>. The immigration and asylum bill coming up this autumn will give Reform and the Conservatives a chance to cause mischief, with amendments and accusations that Burnham is not taking the issue seriously enough.<\/p>\n Burnham also faces a battle with his own MPs after backing changes to tighten the asylum system, which some on the left have called cruel.<\/p>\n The budget<\/p>\n Burnham and the chancellor, John Healey, are in a sticky situation when it comes to the budget. The prime minister has already committed to tax cuts for pubs and a cap on bus ticket prices, but he has also said he will follow former chancellor Rachel Reeves\u2019 fiscal rules on borrowing. The new government is also committed to the manifesto pledge not to raise income tax, national insurance or VAT \u2013 which caused Starmer\u2019s government to become unpopular with pensioners, farmers and businesses, as ministers enacted a tax raid on those sectors instead. Additionally, the fiscal headroom is likely to have been significantly shrunk by the economic turmoil caused by the Iran war and rises in borrowing costs and inflation. How the sums will add up remains to be seen. Tax rises are widely expected.<\/p>\n Welfare<\/p>\n Starmer faced huge rebellions after his attempts to cut the welfare bill and kicked the can down the road by commissioning the minister Stephen Timms to review the system. That report will be out in the autumn, meaning choices will have to be made. Will there be cuts to the personal independence payment<\/a> (Pip), which disability campaigners railed against? Burnham will have to balance the needs of the most vulnerable in society with pressures to cut spending. Also due this autumn is the Alan Milburn\u2019s review on the 1 million young people in the UK who are out of work, education, or training.<\/p>\n Defence spending<\/p>\n Healey finds himself in an interesting position on the budget amid expectations he will shelve his own target<\/a> of spending 3% of Britain\u2019s GDP on defence by 2030. This is a decision over which he resigned as defence secretarywhen Starmer made it. Choices will have to be made on how to properly fund the military at a time of dire finances. International partners including Trump will be watching any decision closely.<\/p>\n The chancellor, John Healey, may have to shelve his own target on defence spending in autumn budget. Photograph: Matthew Horwood\/PABills<\/p>\n Energy bills are due to go up by 4% in October<\/a> as the Iran war pushes prices to a three-year high. There could be another rise in January if international tensions are not soothed by then. Will Burnham feel obliged to step in? The cost of living has been one of his main focuses. But the energy support system designed by the former prime minister Liz Truss in 2022 cost tens of billions and added to the national debt. He will want to avoid such an outcome.<\/p>\n Thames Water<\/p>\n Burnham promised in his first speech as prime minister to \u201cbuild a new economy where we put life\u2019s essentials back under stronger public control to make them affordable to you again\u201d. And what is more essential for life than water? The beleaguered Thames Water is due to run out of money this autumn, with its creditors wanting the government to agree a takeover deal before they open their wallet again. The public wants Thames to be nationalised, and Burnham said he wanted to do so before he became prime minister. But the Treasury is concerned about the potential cost of a legal battle if creditors challenge any government decision to tip the company into administration in order to take it over. Burnham will have to break the stalemate and make a choice very soon, and sources say he is considering ripping up insolvency laws<\/a> to make the transition to nationalisation easier and less expensive.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"After a relatively cheery summer in which he announced a range of eye-catching cost of living policies, Andy…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":1179215,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[3,4],"tags":[748,393,4884,1144,712,16,15,1764],"class_list":["post-1179214","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-uk","category-united-kingdom","tag-britain","tag-england","tag-great-britain","tag-northern-ireland","tag-scotland","tag-uk","tag-united-kingdom","tag-wales"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@uk\/117191089075785610","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1179214","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1179214"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1179214\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1179215"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1179214"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1179214"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1179214"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}