\nLast updated:<\/p>\n
03 Sept. 2026\n<\/p>\n
When El Ni\u00f1o last hit in 2023\/24, it compounded worsening impacts being driven by climate change, which are hitting harvests and driving up food prices. The price of coffee imports to the UK in 2025 from Brazil rose 77%, and from Vietnam by 39%, whilst the price of cocoa beans from C\u00f4te d\u2019Ivoire doubled. In 2022, before that El Ni\u00f1o, climate change impacts in Pakistan pushed the price of rice up by a third, whilst late monsoon rains, such as have also hit this year, pushed the price of rice from India up 10%.<\/p>\n
The UK imports most of our fruit (86% last year) [3], with lots of that coming from parts of the world likely to be hardest hit by El Ni\u00f1o. Almost all of our bananas (88% in 2025) come from South America, which tends to experience extreme heat and extreme rainfall during El Ni\u00f1o events. Grapes, raspberries, strawberries and lots of our citrus fruits come from countries in Africa, many of which are likely to see hotter weather and more prolonged droughts as El Ni\u00f1o turbo-charges the climate change driven extremes already hitting the continent \u2013 from where we also import most (58%) of our tea, with the bulk coming from Kenya.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Whilst the most obvious threat is to those categories of fresh produce for which we are wholly or mostly reliant on imports, our food prices are also vulnerable to the damage El Ni\u00f1o, combined with climate change impacts, could do to global market prices for staples like, for instance, wheat. Although the UK is largely self-sufficient, producing almost all of the wheat that we consume in good years, global market prices will be driven by hits that could be taken by the world\u2019s biggest producers of wheat, like India, Pakistan, China and Australia. \u00a0The UK does not produce enough wheat to significantly influence global commodity markets but rather would feel the impact of price rises on our own domestic wheat, whose prices are largely set by global prices.<\/p>\n
Dereje Hirpa, spokesperson for the Oromia Coffee Farmers\u2019 Cooperative Union [4], said:<\/strong>“El Nino is changing the weather in Ethiopia with higher temperatures and delayed and uneven rains, and intense rain forecast later in the year. \u00a0It’s a worrying time: the 2015-16 El Nino brought drought and floods – seriously damaging harvests. At Oromia we are already supporting 10 local farmers’ cooperatives to adopt practices such as agroforestry that build resilience. Planting trees protects coffee plants from the heat and heavy rain, adds nutrients and organic matter to the soil which boosts fertility and improves moisture retention.\u00a0<\/p>\n “However, a lack of adaptation finance means farmers’ organisations have one hand tied behind our backs. With more direct access to funding we can expand our work to all 413 co-ops we support and help ensure UK consumers can continue to enjoy their morning coffee.\u201d<\/p>\n The Oromia Coffee Farmer\u2019s Co-operative Union represents over 560,000 smallholder coffee farmers in Ethiopia and exports Arabica coffee beans to the UK and across the globe. Coffee was the UK\u2019s biggest import from Ethiopia in 2025, when we imported \u00a314.1m worth.<\/p>\n Speaking of the importance of support for adapting to the threats posed by climate change, Dora Atiiga, a cocoa farmer and primary school founder in Kukuom, Ghana [15], said<\/strong>: \u201cCocoa farmers have a lot of challenges, but today the major challenge that really hits us hard is climate change, pests and disease, high cost of production, as well as unstable incomes. The diseases and the pests reduce our yields. It all leads to one thing, and that\u2019s reduction of income for cocoa farmer. Despite all these challenges, Fairtrade is doing a lot to support each farmer to adapt to new ways of farming \u2013 to adapt to the modern way of farming. Climate change has not come to visit us, it has come to stay \u2013 so we have to adapt and find a way to deal with it.\u201d<\/p>\n As many parts of the northern hemisphere reel from a succession of spring and summer heatwaves, extensive drought, and devastating wildfires, El Ni\u00f1o is intensifying over the coming months and is expected to be particularly strong. The UK Met Office has already forecast that it will be unprecedented in strength, possibly the strongest since the 19th century [5].\u00a0<\/p>\n Head of International Programme at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), Gareth Redmond-King said<\/strong>: \u201cThis devastating summer [6] has shown very starkly what climate change is doing to our weather with public services left struggling to cope, over 1,000 wildfires and suffocating heat through an unprecedented five heatwaves in the UK alone \u2013 the earliest two of which alone claimed 2,877 lives [7] \u2013 which have left us in a prolonged and intense period of drought. As we struggle in the wake of these extremes \u2013 knowing that they only get worse and more dangerous until we cut our planet-heating emissions to net zero \u2013 along comes probably the strongest El Ni\u00f1o we\u2019ve yet faced.\u00a0<\/p>\n \u201cThe heat it will add into our climate system, on top of human-driven temperature rises, look almost certain to push 2027 to be the hottest year on record, at something like 1.7\u00b0C over and above pre-industrial revolution. This will fan the flames of climate change, turbo-charging the threats we have already seen hit food production at home and abroad in recent years. Impacts will hit nations from which we imported around \u00a317 billion worth of food last year, not only threatening further price rises at home, but also the livelihoods and nutrition of the men and women who produce our food in some of the poorest countries of the world.\u201d<\/p>\n Most of what we import from parts of the world likely to see the worst of El Ni\u00f1o are crops that we cannot grow in the UK, or could only grow at limited scale, with energy-intensive infrastructure. But some of what we import \u2013 like tomatoes, strawberries, raspberries, and onions \u2013 we also grow in the UK for parts of the year. Increasingly, we are seeing impacts on these crops both overseas, and at home.<\/p>\n While El Ni\u00f1o’s direct impact on the UK is less well established, the Met Office notes that this year\u2019s is set to bring wetter and stormier weather in the UK this autumn and winter. The last El Ni\u00f1o saw much of the same, with record rainfall and widespread flooding hampering crop planting, reducing the wheat harvest by a fifth, and increasing livestock production costs.<\/p>\n Senior Economist on Food and Climate at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit, Chris Jaccarini said<\/strong>: \u201cExtremes around the world have driven up food prices, with a small number of climate change-hit items disproportionately fuelling inflation [8] and deepening a cost-of-living crisis that is hitting the poorest hardest [9]. This is not just the food we import, but also what we grow at home. After five heatwaves and widespread drought, British arable farmers are now facing the worst harvest on record, meaning four of the five worst harvests will have occurred this decade (2020, 2024, 2025, 2026) [10]\u00a0<\/p>\n \u201cAnd yet, without action, these could be the good years. Unless we rapidly cut emissions and strengthen resilience, climate change impact will continue to worsen with El Ni\u00f1o turbocharging the trend every few years.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n Calculations that this latest El Ni\u00f1o could peak at 3.9\u00b0C in November 2026 [11] have led to predictions that it could push the average global temperature rise to around \u2013 or even above \u2013 1.7\u00b0C in 2027 [12]. In 2025, the temperature rise was around 1.5\u00b0C, and overall, since pre-industrial times, humans have added an average 1.4\u00b0C temperature rise through our erosion of nature and burning of coal, oil and gas [13]. 1.7\u00b0C would make 2027 the hottest year on record. This additional heat will compound existing climate change impacts in the coming months. Shortages and price rises that have already been driven by climate change risk being turbo-charged by the additional heat brought by El Ni\u00f1o.<\/p>\n Nanci Githaiga, a tea producer from Kenya [15] \u2013 a country already hard-hit by climate change before El Ni\u00f1o compounds the threat – said:<\/strong>\u201cTo me, each and every one of us \u2013 from the farmer to the consumer \u2013 has a role to play to ensure that we mitigate against climate change. The industries which may not be on the ground\u2026 have to play their role of climate financing so that the farmers on the ground can get enough resources\u2026 to ensure sustainability.\u201d<\/p>\n Whilst El Ni\u00f1o is a natural phenomenon about which we can do little beyond planning, some new science has suggested that climate change itself may play a role in intensifying El Ni\u00f1o events over the years [14]. Stopping climate change does remain within our grasp. The clear scientific consensus is that cutting our greenhouse gas emissions to net zero by the middle of the century is the only solution we have to achieve this, and bring our climate back into balance. Without this, impacts worsen and become even more of a threat to our food production, meaning that a future El Ni\u00f1o would add even more danger.<\/p>\n ENDS<\/strong><\/p>\n Notes to editors:<\/strong><\/p>\n 1.\u00a0\u00a0 The report is available to download here<\/a>.<\/p>\n 2.\u00a0\u00a0 World Meteorological Organisation El Ni\u00f1o update<\/a> (WMO, 2026) follows a press conference with WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo on Thursday 3 September 2026 at 08:00 GMT (09:00 BST\/10:00 CEST) that will be livestreamed by UNWebTV<\/a>.<\/p>\n 3.\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0Agriculture in the United Kingdom, 2025<\/a> \u2013 chapter 14: the food chain (DEFRA, 2026)<\/p>\n 4.\u00a0\u00a0 The Oromia Coffee Farmers\u2019 Cooperative Union (OCFCU)<\/a> is one of the largest coffee cooperatives in Ethiopia and exports coffee beans to the UK and around the world. OCFU helps farmers adopt climate resilient and nature friendly approaches such as agroforestry. For example, planting trees to provide shade for the coffee plants, producing natural fertilisers from crop residues and animal waste to improve the fertility and moisture retention of the soil, and promoting pruning and farm management practices that boost yields. Oromia also distributes improved coffee varieties – including drought-tolerant strains – and energy-saving cookstoves that reduce fuel consumption, cut smoke pollution in the home, and ease the pressure on forests and women by reducing the need for firewood.\u00a0<\/p>\n 5.\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0An \u2018unprecedented\u2019 El Ni\u00f1o and its implications for the weather forecast <\/a>(Met Office, 2026)\u00a0<\/p>\n 6.\u00a0\u00a0 Hottest summer in the UK<\/a> (Met Office, 2026)<\/p>\n 7.\u00a0 \u00a0Interim heat mortality monitoring report, England: May and June 2026<\/a> (UKHSA, 2026)<\/p>\n 8.\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0Revealed: Food inflation driven by climate impacted foods \u2013 not wages or regulation<\/a> (ECIU, 2026)<\/p>\n 9.\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0Food inflation from Iran war could hit poorer households 50% harder than richest<\/a> (ECIU, 2026).\u00a0<\/p>\n 10.\u00a0 UK harvest even worse than previously thought \u2013 new data<\/a> (ECIU, 2026)\u00a0<\/p>\n 11.\u00a0 \u00a0El Ni\u00f1o Watch<\/a> (The Climate Brink \u2013 Andrew Dessler, 2026)<\/p>\n 12.\u00a0\u00a0 State of the climate: Rapidly developing El Ni\u00f1o raises chance of record-warm 2026<\/a> (Carbon Brief, 2026)\u00a0<\/p>\n 13.\u00a0\u00a0 Copernicus: 2025 was the third hottest year on record<\/a> (Copernicus, 2026)\u00a0<\/p>\n 14.\u00a0 Recent strengthening of eastern Pacific ENSO in the last millennium paleorecord<\/a> (Science, 2026) \u2013 reported in The Independent<\/a>\u00a0<\/p>\n 15.\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0For further information about, or to make contact with Dora Atiiga (who is in the UK 21-16 September), or Nanci Githaiga, please contact Laura Ouseley: laura.ouseley@fairtrade.org.uk<\/a>, +447909 875 956<\/a>, media@fairtrade.org.uk<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n