Nina Granqvist of Aalto University School of Business and Anne-Sophie Barbe, CNRS Research Fellow at the the University of Toulouse, explore how, despite growing global investment and excitement, the commercial adoption of quantum computing remains limited as companies grapple with technical complexity, market uncertainty, and a lack of clear, near-term applications.<\/p>\n
Quantum computing is widely regarded as one of the most promising emerging technologies of our time<\/a>. This optimism is reflected in the surge of public and private investment in the field over the past few years.<\/p>\n Many countries and regions have committed substantial funding to accelerate research and innovation. For example, the European Union has invested approximately $7.2bn, the United States around $3.7bn, and China up to $25bn in government expenditure (Global Quantum Intelligence, 2023). In addition, venture capital funding in quantum start-ups has averaged around $2bn annually throughout the 2020s.<\/p>\n Yet despite this momentum, most potential private users\u2014especially companies that might one day incorporate quantum computing into their operations\u2014remain cautious. Their engagement tends to be limited to small-scale experiments or partnerships, and in many cases, this caution is warranted. There are still several open scientific questions and technological hurdles to overcome before quantum computing can deliver on its commercial promise.<\/p>\n Our research team, supported by the Research Council of Finland since 2019, has been studying the evolving landscape of quantum computing. Through our work, we\u2019ve identified several barriers that are currently slowing broader adoption\u2014ranging from technological complexity to market uncertainty.<\/p>\n Who\u2019s exploring the potential of quantum computers?<\/p>\n Quantum computing is said to hold promise for solving specific types of problems that are out of reach for classical computers, including, for instance, the simulation of certain chemical reactions. Some companies \u2013 especially those in computing-intensive industries \u2013 have begun investing in quantum computing by forming partnerships with hardware manufacturers or quantum software start-ups. These collaborations are typically aimed at exploring how quantum computing might eventually improve parts of their value chains.<\/p>\n In a few cases, firms also support academic research or launch their own internal R&D projects. However, such deeper involvement is rare, as it requires significant financial commitment at a time when the value of this technology is still largely speculative. Real-world, proven applications of quantum computing have yet to materialise, and it\u2019s still uncertain when they will emerge \u2013 or what form they will ultimately take.<\/p>\n Among the early adopters are financial institutions, which often seek to project technological leadership, and where quantum computing can challenge and transform capabilities, and companies in the pharmaceutical and chemical sectors, where professionals tend to have a baseline familiarity with quantum science.<\/p>\n Why many others are holding back?<\/p>\n At the same time, many companies, despite being seen by advocates as likely future users, haven\u2019t even started to explore quantum computing. For these organisations, the landscape is not only unfamiliar but deeply confusing.<\/p>\n Part of the challenge is the ambiguity of the term \u201cquantum computing\u201d itself. It is used to describe a range of technologies with varying capabilities and levels of maturity \u2013 from general-purpose quantum computers to quantum annealers. Some reports claim breakthroughs like \u201cquantum supremacy\u201d and \u201cquantum advantage\u201d have already occurred, while others say practical applications are still decades away. The result is a mix of hype and uncertainty that leaves many potential users unsure where \u2013 or whether \u2013 to place their bets.<\/p>\n Adding to this confusion is the technical complexity of the hardware. Quantum computers can be built using very different physical systems, such as superconducting circuits, trapped ions, or photons. Each approach draws from its own scientific tradition, and understanding and comparing them is far from straightforward.<\/p>\n To navigate this complex terrain, companies would likely need to hire in-house quantum experts. But such talent is becoming increasingly scarce and expensive, driven by intense demand and limited supply. Justifying these hires can also be difficult when no commercial applications yet exist, and the future of the technology remains highly uncertain.<\/p>\n Which industries will lead adoption?<\/p>\n This is one of the most frequently asked questions \u2013 and one of the hardest to answer definitively. In fact, there are some paradoxes that complicate predictions.<\/p>\n On the one hand, industries already leading in high-performance computing<\/a> \u2013 like pharmaceuticals or aerospace \u2013 seem like obvious early adopters. Firms from these industries have well-defined computational needs and the resources to invest. But for these sectors, quantum computers face stiff competition from decades of optimised classical computing systems. Due to their well-defined needs, the target is clear but far away.<\/p>\n On the other hand, sectors less familiar with the use of high-performance computing \u2013 such as logistics, construction, or parts of manufacturing \u2013 may benefit more quickly from quantum improvements simply because they have more to gain. However, in these industries, the problems to be solved are less defined, and the internal capacity to explore quantum solutions may be limited. Here, the target is fuzzier but closer.<\/p>\n In short, the industries most likely to adopt quantum computing early may not be those with the most advanced systems today but rather those that can identify a meaningful use case and are willing and able to experiment.<\/p>\n About the authors<\/p>\n Nina Granqvist is a Professor of Management at Aalto University School of Business<\/a> in Finland. Her research focuses on how new industries and markets emerge and develop, including how technologies move from the margins to becoming mainstream.<\/p>\n