{"id":143011,"date":"2025-05-30T02:52:11","date_gmt":"2025-05-30T02:52:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/143011\/"},"modified":"2025-05-30T02:52:11","modified_gmt":"2025-05-30T02:52:11","slug":"may-inflation-seen-cooling-to-as-low-as-1-5-before-rebounding-in-june","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/143011\/","title":{"rendered":"May inflation seen cooling to as low as 1.5% before rebounding in June"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>    <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/606800_6571025_updates.jpg\" alt=\"A currency broker stands near his booth, which is decorated with pictures of currency notes, while dealing with customers, along a road in Karachi.\u2014 Reuters\/File\" width=\"700\" height=\"400\" class=\"\"\/><\/p>\n<p>A currency broker stands near his booth, which is decorated with pictures of currency notes, while dealing with customers, along a road in Karachi.\u2014 Reuters\/File<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><b>Fitch upgrade testament to macroeconomic stabilisation in FY25.<\/b><\/li>\n<li><b>Revenue growth outpaced expenditure, reducing fiscal deficit.<\/b><\/li>\n<li><b>C\/A posted $1.9bn surplus, with robust exports, remittances.<br \/><\/b><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Ministry of Finance and Revenue expects inflation to ease to between 1.5% and 2% year-on-year (YoY) in May, before picking up to 3%-4% in June, according to a monthly economic report released on Thursday.<\/p>\n<p>Pakistan&#8217;s average inflation in the fiscal year ending June 2025 is expected to be in the range of 5.5%-7.5%, the central bank said in its half-yearly report last month.<\/p>\n<p>The headline inflation cooled to 0.3% (YoY) in April 2025, down sharply from 17.3% a year earlier and 0.7% in March, driven by broad-based declines across food and energy categories, the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics reported, with analysts saying it was an all-time low.<\/p>\n<p>During July to April (10MFY25), inflation was recorded at 4.73%; contrary to this, during July to April FY24 inflation rate was pegged at 25.97%.<\/p>\n<p>The economy showed strong performance in May, as reflected in key indicators highlighted in the government\u2019s monthly economic update and outlook.<\/p>\n<p>The report said that a recent upgrade by Fitch Ratings is a testament to the macroeconomic stabilisation in the outgoing fiscal year, supported by improved fiscal performance, current account surplus, and easing consumer prices.<\/p>\n<p>According to the report, the revenue growth outpaced expenditure, reducing the fiscal deficit and further strengthening the primary surplus.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>The current account posted a $1.9 billion surplus, with a robust growth in exports and remittances, the report says, adding that a record-low disinflation paved the way for a more accommodative monetary policy stance.<\/p>\n<p>The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) on May 5 lowered the key interest rate by 100 basis points (bps), bringing it down to 11%, with the change taking effect from May 6, 2025, mainly owing to steady disinflation.<\/p>\n<p>Explaining the move, the Monetary Policy Committee said, \u201cInflation declined sharply during March and April, mainly due to a reduction in administered electricity prices and continued downtrend in food inflation.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>During Jul-Mar FY2025, total revenue grew by 36.7% to Rs 13.36 trillion, compared to Rs9.78 trillion last year, led by a 68% rise in non-tax revenues, which reached Rs4.229 trillion, mainly driven by SBP profits, petroleum levy, dividends, and surcharges.<\/p>\n<p>The Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) tax collection also increased by 26.3% to Rs9.3 trillion during Jul-Apr FY2025, up from Rs7.36 trillion last year.<\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, the external accounts further improved during July-April FY2025, supported by rising remittances and export growth, despite higher imports. The current account posted a $1.9 billion surplus, reversing a deficit of $1.3 billion last year, as per the monthly economic report.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"A currency broker stands near his booth, which is decorated with pictures of currency notes, while dealing with&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":143012,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3090],"tags":[32543,27616,23364,51,10620,1700,256,476,13789,61802,18642,61803,61801,6093,16,15],"class_list":{"0":"post-143011","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-economy","8":"tag-1-5","9":"tag-as","10":"tag-before","11":"tag-business","12":"tag-cooling","13":"tag-economy","14":"tag-in","15":"tag-inflation","16":"tag-june","17":"tag-low","18":"tag-may","19":"tag-rebounding","20":"tag-seen","21":"tag-to","22":"tag-uk","23":"tag-united-kingdom"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/143011","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=143011"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/143011\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/143012"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=143011"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=143011"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=143011"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}