{"id":143164,"date":"2025-05-30T04:17:20","date_gmt":"2025-05-30T04:17:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/143164\/"},"modified":"2025-05-30T04:17:20","modified_gmt":"2025-05-30T04:17:20","slug":"what-would-happen-if-the-amazon-rainforest-dried-out-this-decades-long-experiment-has-some-answers","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/143164\/","title":{"rendered":"What would happen if the Amazon rainforest dried out? This decades-long experiment has some answers"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>CAXIUANA NATIONAL FOREST, Brazil (AP) \u2014 A short walk beneath the dense Amazon canopy, the forest abruptly opens up. Fallen logs are rotting, the trees grow sparser and the temperature rises in places sunlight hits the ground. This is what 24 years of severe drought looks like in the world\u2019s largest rainforest. <\/p>\n<p>But this patch of degraded forest, about the size of a soccer field, is a scientific experiment. Launched in 2000 by Brazilian and British scientists, <a class=\"Link AnClick-LinkEnhancement\" data-gtm-enhancement-style=\"LinkEnhancementA\" href=\"https:\/\/www.esecaflor.ufpa.br\/index_eng_arquivos\/Page442.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Esecaflor<\/a> \u2014 short for \u201cForest Drought Study Project\u201d in Portuguese\u2014 set out to simulate a future in which the changing climate could deplete the Amazon of rainfall. It is the longest-running project of its kind in the world, and has become a source for dozens of academic articles in fields ranging from meteorology to ecology and physiology.<\/p>\n<p>Understanding how drought can affect the Amazon, an area twice the size of India that crosses into several South American nations, has implications far beyond the region. The rainforest stores a massive amount of carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas that is the main driver of climate change. According to <a class=\"Link AnClick-LinkEnhancement\" data-gtm-enhancement-style=\"LinkEnhancementA\" href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/amazon-carbon-climate-change-deforestation-1bc52c85c90dd4c8b04de4c8cd77394e\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">one study<\/a>, the Amazon stores the equivalent of two years of global carbon emissions, which mainly come from the burning of coal, oil and gasoline. When trees are cut, or wither and die from drought, they release into the atmosphere the carbon they were storing, which accelerates global warming. <\/p>\n<p>Creating drought conditions and observing the results<\/p>\n<p>    <a class=\"AnchorLink\" id=\"image-3b0000\"\/><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"Image\" alt=\"University of Exeter researcher Mateus Cardoso Silva works in the forest at the Esecaflor project in Caxiuana National Forest, Para state, Brazil, Thursday, March 20, 2025. (AP Photo\/Jorge Saenz)\"  width=\"599\" height=\"399\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/1748578637_757_\" loading=\"lazy\"\/><\/p>\n<p>University of Exeter researcher Mateus Cardoso Silva works in the forest at the Esecaflor project in Caxiuana National Forest, Para state, Brazil, Thursday, March 20, 2025. (AP Photo\/Jorge Saenz)<\/p>\n<p>University of Exeter researcher Mateus Cardoso Silva works in the forest at the Esecaflor project in Caxiuana National Forest, Para state, Brazil, Thursday, March 20, 2025. (AP Photo\/Jorge Saenz)<\/p>\n<p>Read More<\/p>\n<p>To mimic stress from drought, the project, located in the <a class=\"Link AnClick-LinkEnhancement\" data-gtm-enhancement-style=\"LinkEnhancementA\" href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/amazon-manatee-brazil-endangered-species-97f570cbbfecbdf76257da0d9e78705c\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Caxiuana National Forest<\/a>, assembled about 6,000 transparent plastic rectangular panels across one hectare (2.5 acres), diverting around 50% of the rainfall from the forest floor. They were set 1 meter above ground (3.3 ft) on the sides to 4 meters (13.1 ft) above ground in the center. The water was funneled into gutters and channeled through trenches dug around the plot\u2019s perimeter.<\/p>\n<p>Next to it, an identical plot was left untouched to serve as a control. In both areas, instruments were attached to trees, placed on the ground and buried to measure soil moisture, air temperature, tree growth, sap flow and root development, among other data. Two metal towers sit above each plot. <\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"Image\" alt=\"Sparse tree cover is visible in the area of the Esecaflor project made to mimic a drought in Caxiuana National Forest, Para state, Brazil, Thursday, March 20, 2025. (AP Photo\/Jorge Saenz)\"  width=\"599\" height=\"399\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/1748578638_256_\" loading=\"lazy\"\/><\/p>\n<p>\n                    Sparse tree cover is visible in the area of the Esecaflor project made to mimic a drought in Caxiuana National Forest, Para state, Brazil, Thursday, March 20, 2025. (AP Photo\/Jorge Saenz)\n                <\/p>\n<p>Sparse tree cover is visible in the area of the Esecaflor project made to mimic a drought in Caxiuana National Forest, Para state, Brazil, Thursday, March 20, 2025. (AP Photo\/Jorge Saenz)<\/p>\n<p>Read More<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"Image\" alt=\"Natural forest density is visible in the Esecaflor project control area in the Caxiuana National Forest, Para state, Brazil, Thursday, March 20, 2025. (AP Photo\/Jorge Saenz)\"  width=\"599\" height=\"399\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/1748578638_804_\" loading=\"lazy\"\/><\/p>\n<p>\n                    Natural forest density is visible in the Esecaflor project control area in the Caxiuana National Forest, Para state, Brazil, Thursday, March 20, 2025. (AP Photo\/Jorge Saenz)\n                <\/p>\n<p>Natural forest density is visible in the Esecaflor project control area in the Caxiuana National Forest, Para state, Brazil, Thursday, March 20, 2025. (AP Photo\/Jorge Saenz)<\/p>\n<p>Read More<\/p>\n<p>In each tower, NASA radars measure how much water is in the plants, which helps researchers understand overall forest stress. The data is sent to the space agency\u2019s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in California, where it is processed.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe forest initially appeared to be resistant to the drought,\u201d said Lucy Rowland, an ecology professor at the University of Exeter.<\/p>\n<p>That began to change about 8 years in, however. \u201cWe saw a really big decline in biomass, big losses and mortality of the largest trees,\u201d said Rowland.<\/p>\n<p>This resulted in the loss of approximately 40% of the total weight of the vegetation and the carbon stored within it from the plot. The main findings were detailed in <a class=\"Link AnClick-LinkEnhancement\" data-gtm-enhancement-style=\"LinkEnhancementA\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41559-025-02702-x\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">a study<\/a> published in May in the journal Nature Ecology &amp; Evolution. It shows that during the years of vegetation loss, the rainforest shifted from a carbon sink, that is, a storer of carbon dioxide, to a carbon emitter, before eventually stabilizing. <\/p>\n<p>There was one piece of good news: the decades-long drought didn\u2019t turn the rainforest into a savanna, or large grassy plain, as earlier model-based studies had predicted.<\/p>\n<p>Next steps include measuring forest recovery<\/p>\n<p>    <a class=\"AnchorLink\" id=\"image-a30000\"\/><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"Image\" alt=\"Joao de Athaydes, who is a meteorologist, shows part of the plastic panels installed to mimic stress from drought, at the Esecaflor project in the Caxiuana National Forest, Para state, Brazil, Thursday, March 20, 2025. (AP Photo\/Jorge Saenz)\"  width=\"599\" height=\"399\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/1748578639_451_\" loading=\"lazy\"\/><\/p>\n<p>Joao de Athaydes, who is a meteorologist, shows part of the plastic panels installed to mimic stress from drought, at the Esecaflor project in the Caxiuana National Forest, Para state, Brazil, Thursday, March 20, 2025. (AP Photo\/Jorge Saenz)<\/p>\n<p>Joao de Athaydes, who is a meteorologist, shows part of the plastic panels installed to mimic stress from drought, at the Esecaflor project in the Caxiuana National Forest, Para state, Brazil, Thursday, March 20, 2025. (AP Photo\/Jorge Saenz)<\/p>\n<p>Read More<\/p>\n<p>In November, most of the 6,000 transparent plastic covers were removed, and now scientists are observing how the forest changes. There is currently no end date for the project. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe forest has already adapted. Now we want to understand what happens next,\u201d said meteorologist Jo\u00e3o de Athaydes, vice coordinator of Esecaflor, a professor at the Federal University of Para and coauthor of the Nature study. \u201cThe idea is to see whether the forest can regenerate and return to the baseline from when we started the project.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>During a visit in April, Athaydes guided Associated Press journalists through the site, which had many researchers. The area was so remote that most researchers had endured a full-day boat trip from the city of Belem, which will host the next annual U.N. climate talks later this year. During the days in the field, the scientists stayed at the Ferreira Penna Scientific Base of the Emilio Goeldi Museum, a few hundred yards (meters) from the plots.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"Image\" alt=\"Researcher Joao Paulo analyzes humidity of a tree's leaves as part of the Esecaflor project in the Caxiuana National Forest, Para state, Brazil, Thursday, March 20, 2025. (AP Photo\/Jorge Saenz)\"  width=\"599\" height=\"399\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/1748578639_311_\" loading=\"lazy\"\/><\/p>\n<p>\n                    Researcher Joao Paulo analyzes humidity of a tree&#8217;s leaves as part of the Esecaflor project in the Caxiuana National Forest, Para state, Brazil, Thursday, March 20, 2025. (AP Photo\/Jorge Saenz)\n                <\/p>\n<p>Researcher Joao Paulo analyzes humidity of a tree&#8217;s leaves as part of the Esecaflor project in the Caxiuana National Forest, Para state, Brazil, Thursday, March 20, 2025. (AP Photo\/Jorge Saenz)<\/p>\n<p>Read More<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"Image\" alt=\"Researcher Joao Paulo analyzes humidity of a tree's leaves as part of the Esecaflor project in the Caxiuana National Forest, Para state, Brazil, Thursday, March 20, 2025. (AP Photo\/Jorge Saenz)\"  width=\"599\" height=\"399\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/1748578639_742_\" loading=\"lazy\"\/><\/p>\n<p>\n                    Researcher Joao Paulo analyzes humidity of a tree&#8217;s leaves as part of the Esecaflor project in the Caxiuana National Forest, Para state, Brazil, Thursday, March 20, 2025. (AP Photo\/Jorge Saenz)\n                <\/p>\n<p>Researcher Joao Paulo analyzes humidity of a tree&#8217;s leaves as part of the Esecaflor project in the Caxiuana National Forest, Para state, Brazil, Thursday, March 20, 2025. (AP Photo\/Jorge Saenz)<\/p>\n<p>Read More<\/p>\n<p>Four teams were at work. One collected soil samples to measure root growth in the top layer. Another gathered weather data and tracking soil temperature and moisture. A third was measured vegetation moisture and sap flow. The fourt focused on plant physiology.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe know very little about how drought influences soil processes,\u201d said ecologist Rachel Selman, researcher at the University of Edinburgh and one of the co-authors of the Nature study, during a break. <\/p>\n<p>Esecaflor\u2019s drought simulation draws some parallels with the past two years, when much of the Amazon rainforest, under the influence of El Nino and the impact of climate change, endured its most severe dry spells on record. The devastating consequences ranged from the death of dozens of river dolphins due to warming and receding waters to vast wildfires in old-growth areas.<\/p>\n<p>    <a class=\"AnchorLink\" id=\"image-de0000\"\/><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"Image\" alt=\"Researcher Ari Miranda Gomes collects sap from a tree at the Esecaflor project, where scientists mimic drought to understand how the rainforest might respond to a drier future, in Caxiuana National Forest, Para state, Brazil, Thursday, March 20, 2025. (AP Photo\/Jorge Saenz)\"  width=\"599\" height=\"399\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/1748578639_206_\" loading=\"lazy\"\/><\/p>\n<p>Researcher Ari Miranda Gomes collects sap from a tree at the Esecaflor project, where scientists mimic drought to understand how the rainforest might respond to a drier future, in Caxiuana National Forest, Para state, Brazil, Thursday, March 20, 2025. (AP Photo\/Jorge Saenz)<\/p>\n<p>Researcher Ari Miranda Gomes collects sap from a tree at the Esecaflor project, where scientists mimic drought to understand how the rainforest might respond to a drier future, in Caxiuana National Forest, Para state, Brazil, Thursday, March 20, 2025. (AP Photo\/Jorge Saenz)<\/p>\n<p>Read More<\/p>\n<p>Rowland explained that the recent El Nino brought short-term, intense impacts to the Amazon, not just through reduced rainfall but also with spikes in temperature and vapor pressure deficit, a measure of how dry the air is. In contrast, the Esecaflor experiment focused only on manipulating soil moisture to study the effects of long-term shifts in rainfall.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cBut in both cases, we\u2019re seeing a loss of the forest\u2019s ability to absorb carbon,\u201d she said. \u201cInstead, carbon is being released back into the atmosphere, along with the loss of forest cover.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>    <a class=\"AnchorLink\" id=\"image-5d0000\"\/><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"Image\" alt=\"Environmentalists walk through the Caxiuana National Forest, Para state, Brazil, near the Esecaflor project, where scientists mimic drought to understand how the rainforest might respond to a drier future Saturday, March 22, 2025. (AP Photo\/Jorge Saenz)\"  width=\"599\" height=\"399\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/1748578640_649_\" loading=\"lazy\"\/><\/p>\n<p>Environmentalists walk through the Caxiuana National Forest, Para state, Brazil, near the Esecaflor project, where scientists mimic drought to understand how the rainforest might respond to a drier future Saturday, March 22, 2025. (AP Photo\/Jorge Saenz)<\/p>\n<p>Environmentalists walk through the Caxiuana National Forest, Para state, Brazil, near the Esecaflor project, where scientists mimic drought to understand how the rainforest might respond to a drier future Saturday, March 22, 2025. (AP Photo\/Jorge Saenz)<\/p>\n<p>Read More<\/p>\n<p>___<\/p>\n<p>The Associated Press\u2019 climate and environmental coverage receives financial support from multiple private foundations. AP is solely responsible for all content. Find AP\u2019s <a class=\"Link AnClick-LinkEnhancement\" data-gtm-enhancement-style=\"LinkEnhancementA\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ap.org\/about\/standards-for-working-with-outside-groups\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">standards<\/a> for working with philanthropies, a list of supporters and funded coverage areas at <a class=\"Link AnClick-LinkEnhancement\" data-gtm-enhancement-style=\"LinkEnhancementA\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ap.org\/discover\/Supporting-AP\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">AP.org<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"CAXIUANA NATIONAL FOREST, Brazil (AP) \u2014 A short walk beneath the dense Amazon canopy, the forest abruptly opens&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":143165,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3843],"tags":[61845,19430,7029,8616,2311,61849,61844,728,25814,4179,8615,61850,4181,61848,61851,61847,70,16,15,61846,741],"class_list":{"0":"post-143164","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-environment","8":"tag-amazon-river","9":"tag-associated-press","10":"tag-climate","11":"tag-climate-and-environment","12":"tag-climate-change","13":"tag-climate-science","14":"tag-droughts","15":"tag-environment","16":"tag-forests","17":"tag-general-news","18":"tag-international-news","19":"tag-joo-de-athaydes","20":"tag-jwd-evergreen","21":"tag-lucy-rowland","22":"tag-rachel-selman","23":"tag-rain-forests","24":"tag-science","25":"tag-uk","26":"tag-united-kingdom","27":"tag-water-shortages","28":"tag-weather"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@uk\/114594856761608805","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/143164","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=143164"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/143164\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/143165"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=143164"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=143164"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=143164"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}