– \u2018If Trzaskowski wins, reforms can proceed. If Nawrocki wins, he is likely to veto reform legislation or delay it indefinitely,\u2019 says Stanford University\u2019s Anna Grzymala-Busse<\/p>\n
– Security is the \u2018final factor influencing Poles\u2019 decisions,\u2019 particularly under the shadow of the Ukraine war, says academic Bartosz Rydlinski<\/p>\n
– \u2018Trzaskowski appears safe, pro-European, and competent. Nawrocki positions himself as a fighter: nationalist, anti-elite, and defiant. His base sees him as someone who won\u2019t bow to Brussels or the liberal mainstream,\u2019 says analyst Stuart Dowell<\/p>\n
ATHENS<\/strong><\/p>\n As Poland prepares for Sunday\u2019s presidential runoff between liberal Rafal Trzaskowski and conservative Karol Nawrocki, analysts say the outcome of the high-stakes battle could alter the country\u2019s trajectory on domestic governance, European integration, and its role in regional security.<\/p>\n Trzaskowski, the mayor of the capital Warsaw backed by Prime Minister Donald Tusk\u2019s centrist Civic Platform party, advocates for pro-European policies, judicial reforms, and progressive stances on social issues.<\/p>\n Nawrocki, who is supported by the nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party, champions nationalist values, traditionalism, and a cautious approach to EU integration.<\/p>\n With the Polish presidency wielding significant veto powers, the election outcome will either empower Tusk\u2019s pro-European government to implement long-awaited judicial and institutional reforms, or block those efforts for years to come.<\/p>\n Polls suggest a razor-thin margin between the two candidates, with the vote likely hinging on undecided voters and turnout in both rural and urban areas.<\/p>\n \u201cIf Trzaskowski wins, reforms can proceed. If Nawrocki wins, he is likely to veto reform legislation or delay it indefinitely \u2026 as incumbent President Andrzej Duda has done,\u201d said Anna Grzymala-Busse, professor of international studies at Stanford University.<\/p>\n On foreign policy, she said the result is unlikely to drastically alter Poland\u2019s path.<\/p>\n \u201cWhile the candidates differ on the EU, their views on Ukraine align. These differences may not translate into policy changes: the current president, affiliated with PiS like Nawrocki, has been unable to shift the government\u2019s pro-EU stance,\u201d she added.<\/p>\n Polarized electorate and diverging visions<\/strong><\/p>\n Bartosz Rydlinski, assistant professor of political science at the Cardinal Stefan Wyszynski University in Warsaw, described the race as a reflection of Poland\u2019s underlying economic and cultural fault lines.<\/p>\n Trzaskowski draws support primarily from residents of larger cities and western Poland, who have benefited from the economic growth of the past three decades, he said.<\/p>\n Nawrocki, on the other hand, represents those who have faced economic and social challenges during the same period, as well as a more conservative and deeply religious segment of society, according to Rydlinski.<\/p>\n The May 18 first round highlighted these divisions: Trzaskowski finished narrowly ahead with 31.36% of the vote, followed by Nawrocki at 29.54%.<\/p>\n \u201cBased on the first round\u2019s results, a fierce battle for every vote is expected,\u201d Rydlinski noted, adding that \u201cintense media attacks by the candidates could tip the balance in the final stretch.\u201d<\/p>\n Security, Ukraine, and transatlantic relations<\/strong><\/p>\n Both candidates share common ground on bolstering the military capacity of Poland, a NATO front-line state bordering Ukraine and Belarus.<\/p>\n Security is the \u201cfinal factor influencing Poles\u2019 decisions,\u201d particularly in the aftermath of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, Rydlinski said.<\/p>\n \u201cNawrocki recently met with Donald Trump, viewing the US as the primary guarantor against Russian aggression. Trzaskowski seeks a balance between the US and the EU, recognizing Europe\u2019s role in building Poland\u2019s political and military security,\u201d he explained.<\/p>\n Trzaskowski has also reaffirmed his support for Ukraine\u2019s NATO membership, while making clear that he would not send Polish troops to Ukraine.<\/p>\n Nawrocki similarly supports defense spending hikes but diverges on many other international issues, including rejecting the EU\u2019s Green Deal and the bloc\u2019s Migration Pact.<\/p>\n \u201cNawrocki also promises to restore border controls with Germany to curb migration, views the EU as an extreme left-wing concept, and seeks to distance Poland from the EU\u2019s climate policies,\u201d Rydlinski said.<\/p>\n \u201cHe represents a Polish version of Trumpism, though it is the government, not the president, that conducts European policy.\u201d<\/p>\n This alignment with US conservatives was further reinforced when US Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem endorsed Nawrocki at the Conservative Political Action Conference held this week in Poland.<\/p>\n \u201cI just had the opportunity to meet with Karol, and listen, he needs to be the next president of Poland,\u201d Noem said at the event, criticizing Trzaskowski as an \u201cabsolute train wreck of a leader\u201d and saying that \u201csocialists and people that are just like this mayor out of Warsaw \u2026 have destroyed our countries.\u201d<\/p>\n A contest of personalities as much as policy<\/strong><\/p>\n Stuart Dowell, a political analyst for Polish public broadcaster TVP, emphasized that presidential elections in the country \u201care as much about personality as policy.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cTrzaskowski appears safe, pro-European, and competent. Nawrocki positions himself as a fighter: nationalist, anti-elite, and defiant. His base sees him as someone who won\u2019t bow to Brussels or the liberal mainstream,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n Dowell noted that Trzaskowski currently holds a narrow lead in polls, boosted by support from the diaspora and liberal-leaning voters.<\/p>\n \u201cBut Nawrocki\u2019s support remains steady despite negative headlines. If urban turnout drops or PiS mobilizes effectively in rural areas, the race could flip. Trzaskowski\u2019s campaign has gained momentum recently, but it hasn\u2019t shifted the polls significantly,\u201d he explained.<\/p>\n While foreign policy alignment on Ukraine is expected to continue regardless of the winner, Dowell cautioned that the presidency\u2019s veto power could bring either political stalemate or legislative progress.<\/p>\n A Nawrocki victory, he said, would likely stall much of Tusk\u2019s reform agenda.<\/p>\n \u201cInternationally, it would signal that Poland\u2019s nationalist right remains a potent force, potentially complicating EU coordination on issues from climate to Ukraine. While not a complete reversal, it would drag Poland back into political trench warfare.\u201d<\/p>\n