This week, Russia launched one of its largest sustained attacks against Ukraine since Vladimir Putin ordered an invasion of the country in 2022. The offensive, consisting largely of missiles and drones, came as President Donald Trump threatened to wash his hands of the conflict. Recently, Trump has expressed annoyance with Putin\u2019s unwillingness to make a deal to end the war, accusing the Russian President of \u201cplaying with fire.\u201d But Trump continues to resist increasing sanctions on Russia, or sending new military aid to Ukraine. European leaders, who are more supportive of Ukraine, have pushed for a ceasefire, but Russia has refused to agree to even a thirty-day pause. With Putin\u2019s military making progress on the battlefield and American aid drying up, the Russian leader may see no advantage in backing down.<\/p>\n
If Russia and Ukraine do eventually return to negotiations, what might they look like? To talk about that question, I recently spoke by phone with Sergey Radchenko, a professor at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, and the author of \u201cTo Run the World: The Kremlin\u2019s Cold War Bid for Global Power<\/a>.\u201d Radchenko, writing with Samuel Charap, has published a couple<\/a> of articles<\/a> in Foreign Affairs over the past fourteen months about why peace talks have failed before, and how they might succeed in the future. During our conversation, which has been edited for length and clarity, we discussed why Trump\u2019s desire to get a deal immediately may be pushing Putin away from a settlement, whether the earlier talks between Russia and Ukraine really had a chance to succeed, and what the past several months reveal about Putin\u2019s willingness to ultimately compromise.<\/p>\n Trump has been in office now for more than four months. What has his return told us about the war in Ukraine and the actors involved?<\/strong><\/p>\n I don\u2019t think we have learned all that much about the war. But we have learned something about what Trump wants to accomplish, and we have perhaps learned why he\u2019s not going to be able to accomplish it. Trump rolled into office with the expectation that he would be able to put an end to this war in no time. I think he ignored the complexity of the conflict. The people he appointed to run his Ukraine portfolio\u2014people, in particular, like Steve Witkoff, who has been charged with negotiating with the Russians\u2014don\u2019t seem to have the necessary experience to understand the underlying issues, which is why I think Trump was ultimately surprised. He did not expect the negotiations to be so difficult. Also, Trump is very impatient, and Putin is playing a long game. This is the main reason why negotiations have become so protracted. What I find surprising is that Trump ever thought that it would be different.<\/p>\n I was maybe na\u00efve too, because my thinking when Trump came into office was that this actually would be a good time for negotiations. Not negotiations that would be good for Ukraine, but negotiations. You had Trump make clear that American support was drying up, and you had Trump incredibly anxious for a deal with Putin. I thought, Oh, Putin\u2019s going to get the deal that he wants. So it has surprised me that Putin has seemed so resistant. What was I missing?<\/strong><\/p>\n Putin is interested in a better relationship with the United States, but not at any price. He wants Trump to help him get there by arm-twisting Volodymyr Zelensky to agree to conditions that Zelensky would never otherwise agree to. Trump is really in a negotiating mode. He clearly doesn\u2019t like Zelensky for a variety of reasons, but he doesn\u2019t want to be put in a situation where public opinion will say, \u201cTrump is basically just doing Putin\u2019s bidding and he\u2019s just selling out Ukraine and he\u2019s not getting anything in return.\u201d<\/p>\n So Putin expected that he could perhaps get more from Trump. I don\u2019t know how much he expected on that front, but the bottom line is that he has his goals that he wants to achieve in Ukraine, which relate to Ukraine\u2019s non-aligned status and demilitarization. He also wants control of the territories that he has annexed but does not yet totally control, as well as protection for Russian speakers and for the Russian Orthodox Church in Ukraine. But Putin can still hold out for a considerable length of time to see if he can bargain for better conditions.<\/p>\n And the reason you think Putin can hold out is that the war is going better for him?<\/strong><\/p>\n For two reasons: First, when you\u2019re negotiating with someone who\u2019s desperate to make a deal, you feel like you would effectively stand to get better conditions by waiting. Imagine if you\u2019re in a situation of selling a house and you\u2019re dealing with a buyer who\u2019s absolutely desperate to buy and will go out of his way to give you the best conditions. You could try to extract even more by holding out. Now, there\u2019s of course a possible downside to the strategy, which is that Trump has repeatedly said he might walk away or impose new sanctions. But Putin feels that perhaps the sanctions that could be imposed would not be particularly dangerous.<\/p>\n Or perhaps they won\u2019t get imposed at all.<\/strong><\/p>\n Or perhaps they won\u2019t get imposed at all. There\u2019s also no clarity about what Trump means by \u201cwalking away.\u201d It\u2019s been very interesting to watch the Kremlin\u2019s reaction to Trump\u2019s threats, saying he\u2019s becoming too emotional or he\u2019s not getting enough information, or he should be more patient, and so on\u2014the way that you would perhaps talk about a child or someone deeply incompetent. And maybe they are right, frankly.<\/p>\n I was about to say\u00a0.\u00a0.\u00a0.<\/strong><\/p>\n And then the other aspect that you\u2019ve alluded to is that Putin feels that he has the wind at his back militarily. This war has not progressed very far in three years, but the Russians have been making some progress in recent months. And so the longer you wait the better your chances, because you\u2019ll get more territory before a ceasefire.<\/p>\n