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ISTANBUL\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n Another diplomatic storm is brewing between Algeria and France, with analysts warning of a deepening crisis driven by shifting political landscapes, the rise of the French far-right, and unresolved colonial-era grievances.<\/p>\n In early April, Algeria expelled 12 staff from the French Embassy in Algiers in retaliation for the arrest of an Algerian consular employee in Paris. The employee was accused of involvement in the kidnapping of Algerian opposition influencer Amir Boukhors.<\/p>\n France responded by expelling 12 Algerian diplomats and recalling its ambassador for consultations.<\/p>\n Zine Labidine Ghebouli, a consultant and scholar on Euro-Mediterranean cooperation and Algerian politics at the Arab Reform Initiative, described the tit-for-tat expulsions as \u201cmutual\u201d and \u201cunprecedented,\u201d arguing they reflect a much deeper and long-standing crisis.<\/p>\n \u201cThe official reasons are manifestations of a deeper crisis related to the shift of the French political class, especially after the win of the French far right in the recent elections and the desire of the new Algerian leadership, since its arrival in 2019, to recalibrate its historically complex dynamics with France,\u201d Ghebouli said.<\/p>\n \u201cIn reality, the ongoing tensions are reflective of both countries\u2019 attempts to reach a new cooperation framework at a time of severe regional geopolitical shifts and shifting domestic interests.\u201d<\/p>\n Turbulent legacy<\/strong><\/p>\n France ruled Algeria for 132 years \u2014 from July 5, 1830, until Algeria declared independence on the same date in 1962. More than 1.5 million Algerians were killed during the brutal struggle for liberation, while hundreds of thousands were wounded, displaced, or went missing.<\/p>\n More than six decades later, analysts say colonial wounds remain open.<\/p>\n Paul Smith, a historian specializing in 19th- and 20th-century French politics, likens the relationship to a \u201croller coaster\u201d and a \u201clong-term crisis which has never really been resolved\u201d since independence.<\/p>\n He noted that recent tensions have also been inflamed by France\u2019s perceived support for Morocco in the Western Sahara dispute, a longstanding point of contention with Algeria.<\/p>\n The conflict over Western Sahara began in 1975 after Spain withdrew from the territory. Morocco claims sovereignty, offering autonomy under its rule, while Algeria supports calls for self-determination by the pro-independence Polisario Front.<\/p>\n In October, French President Emmanuel Macron told Morocco\u2019s Parliament he supports Moroccan sovereignty over the region, prompting strong reactions in Algiers.<\/p>\n \u201cIt\u2019s made Algeria very uneasy and unhappy about its relationship with Paris,\u201d said Smith, who is an associate professor of French politics at the University of Nottingham.<\/p>\n Still, he noted occasional signs of rapprochement, including a phone call between Macron and President Abdelmadjid Tebboune in March and a visit to Algiers by French Minister of State for Europe Jean-Noel Barrot in April.<\/p>\n \u201cIt is a very complicated relationship between France and Algeria, and I don\u2019t see an easy solution,\u201d Smith said.<\/p>\n Far-right politics at play<\/strong><\/p>\n Analysts warn that the French far right is exploiting the tensions for political gain, particularly ahead of key elections, with Algeria often been treated as an issue of domestic politics.<\/p>\n \u201cThe far right is certainly capitalizing on the current crisis to bolster its chances ahead of upcoming elections,\u201d said Ghebouli.<\/p>\n He added that there are elements in both countries who oppose reconciliation for their own reasons.<\/p>\n \u201cThe challenge will be for the leaderships in both capitals to reach a reconciliation that bypasses these radical poles and safeguards national interests and the rights of at least 5 million people who enjoy a shared identity, including Algerian immigrants, French Algerians and French citizens of Algerian origins,\u201d said Ghebouli.<\/p>\n Looking ahead to the 2027 presidential elections, Ghebouli warned that bilateral ties could remain hostage to political calculations in Paris.<\/p>\n \u201cWithout sustainable solutions on key dossiers of memorial cooperation, clandestine migration and the fate of French-Algerian author Boualem Sansal, the situation will keep escalating until 2027,\u201d he said. Algerian authorities arrested Sansal in November at Algiers Airport, accusing him of undermining the country’s territorial integrity through his criticism of Algerian authorities.<\/p>\n Diaspora caught in the middle<\/strong><\/p>\n Experts also fear the diplomatic fallout could have serious repercussions for the large Algerian diaspora in France.<\/p>\n Despite reassurances from both sides, \u201cthe Algerian diaspora is at the heart of current tensions,\u201d said Ghebouli.<\/p>\n He cited concerns over the possible amendment or abolition of the 1968 bilateral accords governing Algerian migration to France.<\/p>\n \u201cThe overall sociopolitical climate has turned Algerians into a topic of public debate,\u201d he said. \u201cIf the diplomatic tensions worsen between the two countries, the diaspora may suffer direct and heavy consequences related to transportation links, visas, settlement opportunities for Algerians in France, not to mention the impact on the significant human links between the two sides.\u201d<\/p>\n Smith said the French far right has long used Algerians as a scapegoat in immigration debates.<\/p>\n He pointed to remarks by Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau, who framed Algeria and people of Algerian origin in France as an easily \u201cidentifiable other.\u201d The right and extreme right wing, meanwhile, profile Algerians as being \u201cthe pinnacle of a wider problem.\u201d<\/p>\n Strained economic ties<\/strong><\/p>\n While Algeria and France have historically maintained strong economic ties, with bilateral trade reaching $11.8 billion in 2023, experts disagree on how much the current tensions will affect business.<\/p>\n \u201cMany French companies have lost valuable access to the Algerian market in recent months,\u201d Ghebouli said. \u201cThe future of economic cooperation in areas like industry, agriculture and tech is also questionable if tensions persist \u2026 the business class from both countries will increasingly feel the burden.\u201d<\/p>\n Smith, however, argued that economic pragmatism will likely prevail.<\/p>\n \u201cWhat happens at the diplomatic level and at the level of rhetoric actually doesn\u2019t necessarily match what\u2019s happening economically,\u201d he said. \u201cFrance needs Algerian gas. So that relationship \u2026 it\u2019s very important that those things carry on.\u201d<\/p>\n