{"id":158179,"date":"2025-06-04T18:33:17","date_gmt":"2025-06-04T18:33:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/158179\/"},"modified":"2025-06-04T18:33:17","modified_gmt":"2025-06-04T18:33:17","slug":"land-use-competition-between-biodiversity-and-net-zero-goals-analysis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/158179\/","title":{"rendered":"Land-Use Competition between Biodiversity and Net Zero Goals \u2013 Analysis"},"content":{"rendered":"

Achieving global energy, climate and biodiversity conservation targets simultaneously has significant implications for land use.<\/strong> At the 28th United Nations Climate Change conference (COP28) in 2023, nearly 200\u00a0countries set a target to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030<\/a>. Based on an assessment by the International Energy Agency (IEA), tripling the capacity of renewables globally requires allocating up to an additional 600\u00a0000\u00a0km\u00b2 of land \u2013 an area the size of France \u2013 to utility-scale solar PV and onshore wind power by 2030, and 2\u00a0million\u00a0km\u00b2 by 2050. In parallel, the IEA estimates that demand for key energy transition minerals<\/a> \u2013 cobalt, copper, graphite, lithium, nickel and rare earth elements (REEs) \u2013 is projected to increase at least fivefold by 2030, requiring more land for mining and processing these minerals. At the same time, the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework aims to protect 30% of the world’s land by 2030, requiring an additional 20\u00a0million\u00a0km\u00b2 of land \u2013 an area slightly larger than South America \u2013 to be set aside for conservation.<\/p>\n

The IEA Renewable Energy and Land-Use Model (REALM) identifies potential overlaps between renewables development, energy transition minerals mining and biodiversity conservation.<\/strong> Natural Resources Canada and the IEA partnered to develop this analytical framework capable of highlighting where solar, wind and critical mineral development risk overlapping with important areas for biodiversity conservation around the world, building on Canada\u2019s leadership in providing open-source geospatial information<\/a> on land use, resource distribution and ecosystems at risk. The new tool compiles 15 global geospatial datasets covering the resource distribution for solar, wind and mineral deposits with datasets on biodiversity and other land-use designations to help resolve competition between various land uses. This analysis is not intended to provide specific recommendations on which lands to protect and which to develop, nor does it reflect an endorsement from the Government of Canada on the metrics and definitions chosen. It rather serves as an example to highlight areas of potential conflict based on the resources and physical attributes of the land. This model can inform a wide array of actors \u2013 such as developers searching for sites with high potential away from biodiversity hotspots, or governments and utilities looking to pre-screen that align with land-use objectives and auction them to developers \u2013 and was designed to be applicable in regions around the world.<\/p>\n

The amount of land required for renewables and critical mineral mining en route to meeting Canada\u2019s net zero by 2050 target is small relative to the total resource potential. <\/strong>By 2050, Canada will need over 50\u00a0GW of solar and nearly 80\u00a0GW of wind, together requiring up to 15\u00a0000\u00a0km2 of land, an area that is only 1% of the country\u2019s more than 1\u00a0200\u00a0000\u00a0km\u00b2 of land that is economic and suitable for utility-scale wind and solar development. Canada also hosts over 200\u00a0Mt of known key energy transition mineral resources, which would occupy a direct footprint of approximately 7\u00a0000\u00a0km\u00b2 if all deposits were to be developed. IEA\u2019s latest high-side projections of Canada\u2019s production indicate that roughly 20% of this known resource would have mining operations ongoing in 2040.<\/p>\n

Canada can reach its 30% by 2030 target by protecting its prime biodiversity areas without significantly hindering the wind and solar development needed to reach its net zero targets. <\/strong>Canada would need to conserve an additional 16% of its landmass \u2013\u00a0an area totalling 1\u00a0300\u00a0000\u00a0km\u00b2 \u2013 by 2030 to meet its 30 by 30 target. If this target was met by prioritising currently unprotected lands most important for global biodiversity, around 1\u00a0million\u00a0km\u00b2 of these lands would not overlap with Canada\u2019s best wind, solar or mineral resources. This is equivalent to around 14% of Canada\u2019s total land mass. <\/p>\n

However, without directing new solar and wind projects away from biodiversity hotpots, new development could conflict with biodiversity conservation efforts. <\/strong>Over 25% of the top-tier solar and wind resources in Canada overlap with unprotected areas important for global biodiversity conservation, and 40% of solar PV and onshore wind power capacity currently under development exhibit the same overlap. Proactive measures, such as environmental pre-screening or designating renewable development zones away from biodiversity hotspots, can redirect future development with minimal impacts on project costs and feasibility. Solar projects have also been competing with Canada\u2019s croplands in recent years, with today\u2019s croplands overlapping with half of the country\u2019s top solar resources. Co-location of wind and solar together or alongside agriculture, as well as incentivising brownfield development, could help reduce the direct land-use conflict.<\/p>\n

Several known critical mineral resources overlap or are near lands rich in biodiversity. <\/strong>Around 35% of Canada\u2019s mineral resources key to the energy transition are located in unprotected lands important for global biodiversity conservation, including two of the largest known resources for cobalt and graphite. Mitigating the environmental impacts associated with developing new mining operations depends on diligent site selection, robust environmental assessment of impacts, and taking measures to minimise the risk of any incidents. Over 30% of Canada\u2019s known critical mineral occurrences \u2013 indicative of potential resources \u2013 do not intersect with top biodiversity lands. These occurrences, if explored, could uncover new resources that fall beyond the most biodiverse areas.<\/p>\n

Integrating land-use considerations into energy system planning can reduce negative biodiversity impacts and enhance co\u2011ordination across land-use priorities. <\/strong>Upfront planning <\/strong>to avoid the most biodiverse areas tends to be the most effective and least expensive way to reduce potential negative impacts and create a more coherent network of protected areas. Land-use planning practices are less mature in other parts of the world \u2013\u00a0some of which face more acute challenges in balancing conservation targets and other land uses, including energy. Other land-use considerations could be added to this analysis over time, including overlap with areas prone to natural hazard risks, shipping lanes or migratory pathways, lands important for natural carbon sequestration, and lands that may be sensitive for various political or national security reasons. The IEA will continue to advance this modelling in partnership with other countries, including those in developing regions where such planning procedures may not exist today.
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