{"id":158731,"date":"2025-06-04T23:22:11","date_gmt":"2025-06-04T23:22:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/158731\/"},"modified":"2025-06-04T23:22:11","modified_gmt":"2025-06-04T23:22:11","slug":"there-is-a-terrifying-new-war-brewing-in-europe-thatll-make-the-ukraine-crisis-look-like-a-playground-scuffle-and-we-are-just-one-spark-or-mistake-away-from-oblivion-bob-seely","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/158731\/","title":{"rendered":"There is a terrifying new war brewing in Europe that’ll make the Ukraine crisis look like a playground scuffle… and we are just one spark or mistake away from oblivion: BOB SEELY"},"content":{"rendered":"

As the world\u2019s attention is fixed on Ukraine, a far more dangerous crisis is brewing in the Baltic \u2013 one that could explode this summer. A deadly showdown between Russian and Nato<\/a> vessels is ever more likely on its dark waters that could make the events on the steppes of Donetsk look like a playground scuffle.<\/p>\n

For months, Nato countries have reported a string of sabotage attempts on vital undersea internet, energy and communications cables. Then, last week, Russia<\/a>\u2019s Baltic and Northern Fleets launched a massive display of military strength in those waters: more than 20 warships, 25 aircraft and helicopters, and 3,000 troops took to sea.<\/p>\n

So what lies behind these increasingly sinister provocations? The answer: oil. Specifically, billions of pounds of Russian petrochemicals being smuggled through the Baltic and North Seas to any country willing to buy them. For Vladimir Putin<\/a>, this illicit trade is a financial lifeline \u2013 without which he could not fund his bloody war in Ukraine. And make no mistake: he\u2019s prepared to go to war to protect it.<\/p>\n

The stakes could not be higher. As Sweden<\/a>\u2019s defence minister Pal Jonson warned: \u2018Russia has a propensity to take great political and military risks.\u2019<\/p>\n

Putin\u2019s oil business is sustained by a so-called \u2018shadow fleet\u2019 \u2013 a ghost armada of some 1,400 ships, the largest covert operation in maritime history. Until recently, Moscow<\/a> denied these ships even existed. But under pressure from sanctions and seizures, Russia is now increasingly defending the fleet with air and sea power \u2013 sending a chilling message to Nato: interfere, and we will act.<\/p>\n

For the Kremlin, this fleet is as vital as the North Atlantic convoys were to Britain during the Second World War<\/a> \u2013 but instead of providing critical supplies to a nation fighting for its life, it bankrolls death and destruction in Ukraine.<\/p>\n

To understand how we got here, we must rewind a few years.<\/p>\n

Russia\u2019s war machine is funded by both legal and illegal oil sales. In December 2022, the West (the G7, EU and Australia) agreed to stop paying more than $60 per barrel of Russian oil \u2013 at least 5 per cent below the average market price \u2013 to squeeze Putin\u2019s war chest. Officially, Russia complies with that price cap \u2013 and oil and gas still account for a third of its state income. Since 2022, the EU has spent more than \u00a3200billion on Russian fossil fuels.<\/p>\n

\"Vladimir <\/p>\n

Vladimir Putin has been maintaining Russia’s war chest through both legal and illegal oil sales<\/p>\n

\"Russian <\/p>\n

Russian ships take part in naval war games in the Baltic Sea. The country’s navy is thought to have tampered with the West’s undersea cables several times since it invaded Ukraine in 2022<\/p>\n

But Putin has also been illegally selling oil above\u00a0the cap but below market price to countries such as China and India via a murky web of illegal tankers and middlemen.<\/p>\n

These ships he hires to transport this filthy cargo, which sail alongside the legal vessels, are often uninsured, poorly maintained and registered in corrupt African states or shady jurisdictions. Many are fronted by Russian agents or unscrupulous businessmen who pocket millions to enable Putin\u2019s murderous conflict.<\/p>\n

The scale of this dark trade is eye-watering. Experts estimate that while Russia\u2019s legal oil exports total around \u00a3184billion a year, the illicit figure is closer to \u00a3516billion \u2013 all directly sustaining the Kremlin\u2019s military machine.<\/p>\n

Many ports, especially in Turkey and India, have eagerly snapped up the black-market oil and made heightened profits. But it\u2019s getting harder for Russia. Hundreds of ships have now been sanctioned. Back in December, Britain and all 12 Baltic Sea nations pledged to disrupt and deter the sanctions-busting fleet. On May 20, the EU unveiled its 17th sanctions package, targeting 343 ships, which means, technically at least, they can\u2019t enter ports without those sites also facing secondary sanctions.<\/p>\n

To avoid those black-listed ports, \u2018dark fleet\u2019 Russian tankers now offload illegal oil mid-ocean on to unsanctioned ships in dangerous high-seas transfers. This perilous practice often takes place in the Black Sea and the Aegean and already two major oil spills have been reported in December 2024 in the Black Sea.<\/p>\n

Worse, refineries in Turkey, India and elsewhere are mixing legal and illegal Russian oil and selling it on legitimate global markets.<\/p>\n

These dirty tricks had continued largely unnoticed until this year, when suspicions mounted that Putin\u2019s shadow fleet might also be attacking the West\u2019s undersea cables.<\/p>\n

Late last year, the Eagle S ship was allegedly caught dragging its anchor along the seabed. On Boxing Day, Finnish border guards stormed the vessel via helicopter and detained it \u2013 and its Russian crew \u2013 only to release it later due to loopholes in maritime law, which often protects ships over sovereign nations.<\/p>\n

On May 10, the UK sanctioned another tanker, the Jaguar, as it entered the North Sea. Estonia later attempted to intercept it in the Baltic. The Russian captain refused to stop and accelerated. Moments later, a Russian Su-35 fighter jet breached Estonian airspace \u2013 a menacing flex of muscle. The Estonians escorted the tanker out of their waters.<\/p>\n

This incident marked a turning point \u2013 the first time Russia had openly defended its shadow fleet with military force. Since then, tensions have only escalated. Just last week, Finland reported that Russian warships are now openly escorting these tankers.<\/p>\n

Russia\u2019s shadow fleet is now operating in plain sight.<\/p>\n

It may only be a matter of time before one of these tit-for-tat seizures spirals into something far more dangerous that has terrifying consequences for Nato.<\/p>\n

In one chilling scenario, Russia could deliberately strike a Nato naval vessel belonging to a small member nation \u2013 gambling that the organisation\u2019s leaders will do anything to avoid escalation, paralysed by the fear of a Third World War. Russia might even bank on such a crisis shattering the alliance\u2019s unity \u2013 a win-win for Putin.<\/p>\n

Or Russia might double down on cable sabotage operations. Under its \u2018total war\u2019 doctrine, crippling civilian infrastructure is a legitimate tactic. Destroying cables or pipelines would be extremely difficult to prove, and therefore a Nato military response unlikely. But the message from Putin would be clear: touch our oil, and we\u2019ll turn off your lights and your internet.<\/p>\n

A third and perhaps most likely trigger is a mistake or a miscalculation. A hot-headed Russian pilot might shoot down a Nato aircraft. Or an unmarked, rogue tanker could collide with a ferry in the foggy Baltic, killing civilians. It\u2019s not out of the question: in January, a shadow-fleet vessel lost power and drifted into German waters. It\u2019s only a matter of time before there\u2019s a fatal crash.\u00a0In the air, a Western passenger plane might collide with a Russian fighter. Even now, these warplanes regularly disable their transponders, refuse to file flight plans or establish contact with air traffic controllers.<\/p>\n

The nations around the Baltic Sea, including the three Baltic republics that more than 30 years ago helped bring down the Soviet Union, say they will not be intimidated. That means this crisis is set to continue until it comes to a head.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Opposing them is a ruthless dictator, addicted to the billions his illegal oil armada pours into the Kremlin\u2019s war chest. Putin will not relinquish this trade lightly.<\/p>\n

In the Army, there\u2019s an expression: \u2018If it\u2019s freezing, it\u2019s Baltic.\u2019 Well, the Cold War in the Baltic is starting to heat up. And one spark, one miscalculation, could set it ablaze.<\/p>\n

Dr Bob Seely\u2019s book, The New Total War, is published next month by Biteback.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"As the world\u2019s attention is fixed on Ukraine, a far more dangerous crisis is brewing in the Baltic…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":158732,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[92,6405,730,2821,12,332,657,26],"class_list":{"0":"post-158731","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-world","8":"tag-dailymail","9":"tag-debate","10":"tag-india","11":"tag-nato","12":"tag-news","13":"tag-russia","14":"tag-ukraine","15":"tag-world"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@uk\/114627670592716294","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/158731","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=158731"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/158731\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/158732"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=158731"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=158731"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=158731"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}