By continuing to engage diplomatically without halting military operations, Moscow can claim it is ready for peace while using the battlefield as leverage.<\/p>\n
But more than three years since invading Ukraine, does Russia really have the resources to wage war for as long as it takes?<\/p>\n
The Moscow Times looks at the current situation on the ground:<\/p>\n
Ukrainian military analyst Ivan Stupak said he believes Russian officials are bluffing when they say<\/a> the country can keep fighting for many years.<\/p>\n \u201cNo one can fight for many years. Russia has a lot of resources and a lot of people, but it also has its limits,\u201d Stupak, an adviser to Ukraine’s national security committee, told The Moscow Times.<\/p>\n \t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tUkrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov (C) is seen after Russian-Ukrainian talks. Russian forces have stepped up their offensive in northeastern and eastern Ukraine in recent weeks following Putin\u2019s call to create a “buffer zone” along the Russia-Ukraine border, capturing<\/a> villages in the Sumy region, advancing<\/a> in Kharkiv and pushing<\/a> to encircle the strategic city of Pokrovsk in Donetsk.\u00a0<\/p>\n The Russian military averaged nearly 184 assaults per day in May, a 19% increase over April, the Ukrainian open-source intelligence group Deep State reported<\/a>.<\/p>\n According to BBC Russian Service military analyst Pavel Aksyonov, Russia is concentrating forces to strike at weak points in Ukraine\u2019s defenses and break through.<\/p>\n \u201cThe Russian army aims to exhaust Ukrainian forces and prevent them from sending reinforcements to critical areas. But capturing the city of Sumy is unlikely. They don\u2019t have enough strength,\u201d Aksyonov told The Moscow Times.<\/p>\n Stupak noted that Ukraine\u2019s military is more vulnerable following prolonged fighting in Russia\u2019s Kursk region, which it withdrew from earlier this year after launching a bold cross-border incursion last summer.\u00a0<\/p>\n \u201cDuring the Kursk operation, we took heavy losses of both manpower and equipment. We redeployed many units there, including from the Donetsk region. Now the front in Donetsk is sagging, and Russia is taking advantage. They are now trying to encircle Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka and are transferring additional forces there,\u201d Stupak said, noting that the front is holding for now.<\/p>\n \t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tA Russian soldier at the front in Ukraine. Despite these advances, Western and Ukrainian analysts caution that Russia\u2019s gains may not be sustainable. The Kremlin is reportedly grappling with significant equipment losses and growing logistical strain.\u00a0<\/p>\n A Pentagon intelligence report cited<\/a> by The Washington Post estimated that Russia has lost over 10,000 military vehicles, 3,000 tanks and some 250 aircraft since the war began.\u00a0<\/p>\n The Soviet-era stockpiles of armored vehicles are nearly exhausted, and current tank production, around 200 per year, is unlikely to replenish those losses anytime soon.<\/p>\n There are also signs of strain on the battlefield.\u00a0<\/p>\n \t\tnews \t\t\t\tTrump Acknowledges Putin Not Ready to End Ukraine War \u2013 WSJ Russian soldiers are increasingly attacking<\/a> in civilian vehicles, including, as one video circulating on Russian Telegram channels shows, a Porsche Cayenne SUV<\/a>. These vehicles often destroyed by Ukrainian drones.<\/p>\n Despite its heavy troop casualties<\/a>, Russia has managed to sustain its manpower through aggressive recruitment campaigns and by shifting its tactics.\u00a0<\/p>\n According to military analysts, Moscow has significantly ramped up drone production and is relying heavily on low-cost, high-volume assaults to probe weak points in Ukrainian defenses.<\/p>\n \u201cThey\u2019re concentrating forces, deploying drones en masse and targeting Ukrainian logistics before pushing forward,\u201d said Aksyonov.<\/p>\n \t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tAn apartment building in Ukraine’s Donetsk region after Russian shelling. Still, he said, Russia is unlikely to achieve a breakthrough that could decisively turn the tide of the war with its current resources.<\/p>\n According to current estimates, it would take Russia up to three years at its current pace to capture all of Donetsk alone. Taking the remaining regions, analysts say, would require far greater time, resources and bloodshed.<\/p>\n For the Kremlin, however, ideological and political factors outweigh military logic.\u00a0<\/p>\n \u201cRussia may be low on resources, but that doesn\u2019t change their will to wage war,\u201d said Pavel Luzin, a Russian military expert. \u201cFor the Russian government, it\u2019s a matter of survival and legitimacy. Russia desperately needs a pause in the fighting, but it can\u2019t politically afford one. Ukraine isn\u2019t asking for peace at any cost.\u201d<\/p>\n \t\tnews \t\t\t\tSenior NATO Official to MT: We Expect Putin to Retaliate Against Ukraine for \u2018Spider\u2019s Web\u2019 Operation Luzin said Russia is hoping that time and fatigue will work in its favor. If Western military and financial support for Ukraine collapses, or if domestic pressure mounts on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to seek peace, Russia could gain the upper hand at the negotiating table.<\/p>\n But while U.S. military aid has indeed slowed, European nations have continued to back Kyiv. And Ukraine is ramping up its own defense industry, increasingly producing weapons domestically, Aksyonov said.<\/p>\n \u201cAll these massive attacks on civilians keep happening because the Kremlin is likely waiting for Ukrainians to tire of the war and pressure Zelensky to accept peace at any cost. But that hasn\u2019t happened,\u201d said Stupak.<\/p>\n A Message from The Moscow Times:<\/strong><\/p>\n Dear readers,<\/p>\n We are facing unprecedented challenges. Russia’s Prosecutor General’s Office has designated The Moscow Times as an “undesirable” organization, criminalizing our work and putting our staff at risk of prosecution. This follows our earlier unjust labeling as a “foreign agent.”<\/p>\n These actions are direct attempts to silence independent journalism in Russia. The authorities claim our work “discredits the decisions of the Russian leadership.” We see things differently: we strive to provide accurate, unbiased reporting on Russia.<\/p>\n We, the journalists of The Moscow Times, refuse to be silenced. But to continue our work, we need your help<\/a>.<\/p>\n Your support, no matter how small, makes a world of difference. If you can, please support us monthly starting from just $2. It’s quick to set up, and every contribution makes a significant impact.<\/p>\n By supporting The Moscow Times, you’re defending open, independent journalism in the face of repression. Thank you for standing with us.<\/p>\n \n\t\t\t\tContinue\n\t\t\t<\/p>\n \t\t\t\t Not ready to support today? \u00d7<\/p>\n \t\tRemind me next month<\/strong><\/p>\n \n\t\t\tThank you! Your reminder is set.\n\t\t<\/p>\n![\"
Ukrainian](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/TASS_80720497.jpg\")
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\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tAlexander Ryumin \/ TASS<\/p>\n![\"
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\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tAlexei Konovalov \/ TASS<\/p>\n
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\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tState Emergency Service of Ukraine<\/p>\n
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Remind me later.<\/p>\n