{"id":165544,"date":"2025-06-07T17:42:11","date_gmt":"2025-06-07T17:42:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/165544\/"},"modified":"2025-06-07T17:42:11","modified_gmt":"2025-06-07T17:42:11","slug":"why-ballerina-isnt-jumping-past-a-25m-opening","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/165544\/","title":{"rendered":"Why ‘Ballerina’ Isn’t Jumping Past a $25M Opening"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n\tSATURDAY AM:<\/strong> Refresh for more and chart<\/strong>\u2026.One of the most intriguing yet mindboggling dynamics in moviegoing is that which prevents audiences from getting off the couch, even when the word of mouth out there is great on a movie. <\/p>\n

\n\tSuch is the dilemma this morning for Lionsgate<\/a>\u2018s John Wick off-shoot Ballerina<\/a><\/strong> which won\u2019t budge from its industry $25.5M<\/strong> projection even after an A- CinemaScore, one of the best in the Wick franchise. Lionsgate is seeing the movie in the $25.5M-$27.5M<\/strong> range. While that grade for the Len Wiseman directed movie is under the franchise\u2019s best in show, John Wick: Chapter 4\u2018s A, it\u2019s well above the original John Wick\u2018s B, and in the same great company as John Wick 2 & 3 which also nabbed A-s. Friday for the Ana de Armas movie was $10.65M<\/strong> including previews. <\/p>\n

\n\tIt\u2019s clear that a portion of the John Wick faithful love this movie (I had zero patience for it, more on that later), but Ballerina isn\u2019t showing signs of jumping into its forecasted $30M+ rafters. Again, it\u2019s not a good sign for any studio when you show up on tracking at point A, and drop to point B or C. This happened recently with Karate Kid: Legends. <\/p>\n

\n\tWhy aren\u2019t more people going? <\/p>\n

\n\tThere\u2019s something to be said that when the movie popped on tracking three weeks ago, respondents were upbeat that the movie was \u201cFrom the World of John Wick\u201d, but when they looked closer noticed that Keanu Reeves wasn\u2019t entirely in the movie. Lionsgate made it obvious in their marketing that Reeves is in the film, and even featured him in one of their one sheets. <\/p>\n

\n\tOne film finance source yelled at me yesterday about the less-than-expected Ballerina performance, \u201cIf their exits were so great, why the hell was the review embargo lift so late?!\u201d The review embargo lift was on Wednesday, June 4, the day before previews began. In addition, John Wick: Chapter 4 launched and teed off its excitement at SXSW, and that festival crowd would have embraced and screamed out praise of Ballerina if it was there. SXSW could have used another cool fanboy film this year. <\/p>\n

\n\tThere\u2019s also the sense that many have already seen these girl-with-the-gun movies before, and there are plenty of copycats on streaming (i.e. Charlize Theron\u2019s The Old Guard, Gal Gadot\u2019s Heart of Stone, Jennifer Lopez\u2019s The Mother) \u2014 so why rush out? But this one is through the lens of John Wick, and ya know, stunts! But you can\u2019t just swap out our favorite puppy loving, gun toting, surfer dude for a female lead, and that\u2019s potentially why more of the Wick faithful aren\u2019t going. In full confession, I walked out of Ballerina (and I did walk back in for the ending). It was too wash, rinse, repeat in the fisticuffs and bang-bang, and there isn\u2019t a biplane scene. This wasn\u2019t Nic Winding Refn, John Woo or Ari Aster\u2019s version of Ballerina. I noticed fireflies at the Chinese Theater during the screening and chased them out to the lobby. However, my cynicism aside, what matters more to me is the overall worth of motion picture commerce, and if there are movies that I don\u2019t like, which rise to the top and beat the odds at the box office, well then, I\u2019m an absolute champ of that, and drop dead fascinated by it. <\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t\t\t\"Red<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t\tRed Sparrow<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t20th Century Fox<\/p>\n

\n\tFunny enough, Ballerina in its Russian dancers turned assassins feature is similar to another feature from Lionsgate Hunger Games alums Francis Lawrence and Jennifer Lawrence, 2018\u2019s Red Sparrow, however, the de Armas movie is opening higher than that one which 20th Century Fox couldn\u2019t figure out at a $16.8M start. <\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t\t\t\"Tom<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tParamount<\/p>\n

\n\tAlso, as we mentioned, Mission: Impossible \u2013 Final Reckoning<\/strong> with its submarine and biplane stunts and the whole scheduled viewing by moviegoers for the best seats in Imax isn\u2019t doing Ballerina any favors with a third place and third weekend of $14.8M<\/strong>. Granted, Mission: Impossible is older skewing at 62% over 25 to Ballerina\u2018s 45% over 35, but there\u2019s overlap in that both are 63% and 37% male\/female, and also with men over 25 (Ballerina at 49%, Mission at 52%) and women over 25 (Ballerina 27% and Mission 32%). <\/p>\n

\n\tI believed back at CinemaCon, Ballerina would have had a better place on the calendar earlier in the year before A Minecraft Movie when we were starving for product. However, the reason why the movie is here in the first weekend of June was due to Reeves\u2019 availability on the press tour. As we reported during the preview, while $25M may internally not be the right number for Lionsgate execs and the industry, but exhibition isn\u2019t crying: There\u2019s meat in the marketplace and this weekend is coming in at $115.5M, +11% a year ago when Sony\u2019s Bad Boys: Ride or Die (which that studio took credit on reviving the sluggish summer box office) opened to $56.6M. In hindsight, Ballerina is better here in its counterprogramming than during the desert days. The industry can be grateful, and there\u2019s more hits ahead this summer in Universal\u2019s Jurassic World Rebirth and Warner Bros\u2019 Superman. <\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t\t\t\"\"<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t\tWanted<\/p>\n

\n\tGeniuses of box office at the studios shrug their shoulders and observe that this is as good as it gets with solo female action movies; this movie was never expected to do John Wick business (it\u2019s only beating the original\u2019s $14.4M start), and was always expected to be in line with Furiosa ($26.3M 3-day) and Alita: Battle Angel ($28.5M 3-day). <\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t\t\t\"Anya<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tWarner Bros<\/p>\n

\n\tSpeaking of Furiosa, she had a similar dilemma in her marketing to Ballerina: You can\u2019t just swap out an iconic action hero (Mad Max) for another, and the execution looked very similar to previous installments, which isn\u2019t provoking more to flock. <\/p>\n

\n\tNote, pre-streaming era, girl with a gun movies did do much better, i.e. Angelina Jolie\u2019s Wanted ($50.9M), Scarlett Johansson\u2019s Lucy ($43.8M), however, there was a $20M range in Quentin Tarantino\u2019s cult classic Kill Bill Vol. 1 ($22.2M), all unadjusted for inflation. <\/p>\n

\n\tIt\u2019s been a while since Lionsgate had a big a tentpole (arguably since November 2023\u2019s Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes), and Ballerina was very important to them that they wanted to delay the film for additional shoots, and get John Wick architect Chad Stahelski\u2019s hands in the movie to get this right. We can\u2019t deny that they pushed the movie with a $45M domestic P&A. Hell, they created (count \u2019em)<\/a> 27 one sheets for the movie, and that type of quantity shows a studio\u2019s commitment to a movie\u2019s marketing. de Armas has been working it since CinemaCon. However, something isn\u2019t bringing horses to water. Maybe tonight. <\/p>\n

\n\tDisney\u2019s Lilo & Stitch <\/strong>continue to be monsters at the box office with a $33M<\/strong> estimated third weekend after a $9.3M<\/strong> third Friday. <\/p>\n

\n\tChart is coming\u2026<\/p>\n

\n\tFRIDAY EARLY EVENING:<\/strong> Currently, many have Ballerina<\/strong> in the mid-$20M<\/strong> range, but Lionsgate believes there\u2019s a potential path to $30M<\/strong> at 3,409 theaters.<\/p>\n

\n\tNobody in distribution land wants to a see a movie with great exits underperform. We need all the wins we can get. Ballerina is a R-rated movie, and the audiences for those always come out at night. What\u2019s hard here is that this spinoff came on tracking three weeks ago at $35M+<\/a>, so if it eases to mid-$20Ms, eeesh. Friday, including $3.5M previews, is just under $11M<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

\n\tI\u2019m hearing now the production cost was in the low-$90M net range, more than 60% of that funded by foreign sales. Given that this is part of the crown jewel John Wick franchise, Lionsgate was determined to make the best movie possible, hence the year delay<\/a>, hence the additional photography. With an estimated $45M P&A spend Stateside, iSpot shows that close to 38% was spent on NBA Finals spots, and those go for hundreds of thousands of dollars. Ya can\u2019t say that Lionsgate didn\u2019t push Ballerina out in the limelight, not to mention Ana de Armas has been promoting in Dwayne Johnson-like fashion since CinemaCon, all over social, etc.<\/p>\n

\n\tBallerina has just under 1,000 PLF auditoriums. <\/p>\n

\n\tRELATED: The Movies That Have Made More Than $1 Billion At The Box Office<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

\n\tIt\u2019s a stacked summer, and this male-skewing action movie is in the wake of Paramount\/Skydance\u2019s Mission: Impossible \u2013 The Final Reckoning<\/strong>, which has a firm hand on Imax screens, heading to a $14M<\/strong> (-49%) third weekend in third place at 3,496. That\u2019s better than Dead Reckoning\u2018s $10.6M third sesh. Running cume by Sunday is $148.2M<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

\n\tAs we mentioned all along this week, No. 1 is Disney\u2019s to lose as Lilo & Stitch <\/strong>is seeing a third weekend of $32M-$34M<\/strong> after a $9M-$10M<\/strong> third Friday at 4,185 theaters. Running cume is between $335M-$337M<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

\n\tFourth is Sony\u2019s Karate Kid: Legends <\/strong>at 3,859 sites. The pic is seeing $2.3M in its second Friday with a second weekend in the $9M<\/strong> range, -56%. Ten day running cume is $35.7M.<\/strong><\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t\t\t\"\"<\/p>\n

\n\tFifth is Focus Features\u2019 second-weekend wide expansion of The Phoenician Scheme,<\/strong> which jumped from six locations in NYC and L.A. to 1,678 theaters with a second Friday of $2.5M<\/strong> and second weekend of $5.7M<\/strong>. Currently, Wes Anderson\u2019s second weekend isn\u2019t as high as his Asteroid City, which landed at $9M<\/strong> in 2023. We\u2019ll see where this goes. Four stars, 81% positive and a good 62% definite recommend from a crowd that\u2019s 64% under 35, mostly guys at 57%.<\/p>\n

\n\tFRIDAY AM UPDATE, after exclusive: <\/strong>Lionsgate is reporting $3.75M<\/strong> for the previews to Thunder Road\u2019s John Wick spinoff Ballerina<\/strong>. That number is from Wednesday and Thursday shows.<\/p>\n

\n\tThe Rotten Tomatoes audience score stands at 93%, equal to 2023\u2019s John Wick: Chapter 4\u2018s which is best in the Keanu Reeves franchise.<\/p>\n

\n\tBallerina\u2018s audience score also is higher than previous solo femme action movies Furiosa (88%, 2024) and Alita: Battle Angel (91%, 2019).<\/p>\n

\n\tExits on PostTrak were excellent Thursday night with a 79% definite recommend. Again, that\u2019s the fans, but it speaks volumes; we\u2019ve said this before, but with the Comscore\/Screen Engine polling service, \u201cdefinite recommend\u201d carries more weight than the positivity score which is 87%, still very good. This should bode well for Ballerina prancing past $30M. Men showed up to the guns-blazing ballet Thursday night at 61%. Best definite recommend and positive scores came from women over 25, who showed up at 29% and gave it an 83% and 90%, respectively.<\/p>\n

\n\tBallerina takes place during the events of\u00a0John Wick: Chapter 3 \u2013 Parabellum and follows orphaned Eve Macarro (Ana de Armas), who is beginning her training in the assassin traditions of the Ruska Roma. Her father died at the hands of Gabriel Bryne\u2019s The Chancellor. She\u2019s as mad as hell, and she\u2019s not going to take it anymore.<\/p>\n

\n\tRELATED: Ana De Armas Teases \u2018Deeper\u2019 With Tom Cruise & Reveals The Lessons \u2018Ballerina\u2019 Has Taught Her<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

\n\tSocial media org RelishMix says: \u201cConvo on\u00a0Ballerina\u00a0is running positive for action fans excited to see one of their favorite franchises expand in glorious fashion. The cast is the cause of a lot of the film\u2019s positive sentiments including Ana de Armas, who has gained a lot of good will in other roles, and the promise of a returning Keanu Reeves as John Wick. Some comments are, \u2018I love Ana de Armas, and I\u2019m so excited to see her doing this kind of film after\u00a0No Time to Die.\u00a0She was the best Bond Girl!\u2019 and \u2018I didn\u2019t actually expect Keanu to show up in the movie, glad he is gonna be in it!\u2019 plus, \u2018Did I spy Norman Reedus? Between Ian McShane, Keanu, and the legendary Mr. Lance Reddick<\/a>\u2018. Many are pleased with the direction of this film and the action spotlighted in the trailer, sharing, \u2018I was wondering if they were going to do a spinoff with the dancers! This looks EPIC!!!\u2019 and, \u2018I really hope that this is the start of a trilogy.’\u201d<\/p>\n

\n\tRelishMix also notes that Reedus has the most social media followers from the Ballerina cast with his activated 19.2M, and de Armas has 15M fans, while Reeves is still off the grid for his movies.<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t\t\t\"'Lilo<\/p>\n

\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tDisney<\/p>\n

\n\tAnd as we told you Thursday night, it was imminent that Disney\u2019s Lilo & Stitch <\/strong>would cross $300M at 4,410 theaters, the second movie to do so YTD at the domestic B.O. after Warner Bros\/Legendary\u2019s A Minecraft Movie. The hybrid\/live-action feature take on the 2002 Disney toon made $5M Thursday, -7% from Wednesday, for a second week of $86.1M and a running total of $303.1M<\/strong>. Lilo & Stitch is expected to reign again with a third weekend of $35M<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

\n\tRest of the top five for the week is as follows:<\/p>\n

\n\t2.) Mission: Impossible \u2013 The Final Reckoning (Par) 3,861 theaters, Thu $2.3M (-10% from Wed), Wk $38.9M (-59%), Total $134.2M\/Wk 2<\/p>\n

\n\t3.) Karate Kid: Legends (Sony) 3,809 theaters, Thu $1.2M (-10%), Wk $26.7M, Wk 1<\/p>\n

\n\t4.) Final Destination Bloodlines (NL) 3,134 theaters, Thu $1.M (-11%), Wk $16.1M (-48%), Total $117M, Wk 3<\/p>\n

\n\t5.) Bring Her Back (A24) 2,449 theaters, Thu $675K (-12%), Wk $10.4M, Wk 1 <\/p>\n

\n\tEXCLUSIVE:<\/strong> Sources tell us tonight that the John Wick spinoff Ballerina<\/strong> is looking to do around $3.5M-$4M<\/strong> in previews. That\u2019s all in, including Wednesday fan screenings that started at 7 p.m. as well as Thursday showtimes that began at 6 p.m.<\/p>\n

\n\tThe hope is that the $80M-$90M Lionsgate production gets to north of $30M, which, as we told you<\/a>, is around where recent female solo action movies openings live at the box office, read Furiosa ($26.3M 3-day last year) and 2019\u2019s Alita: Battle Angel ($28.5M 3-day in 2019).<\/p>\n

\n\tThe Len Wiseman-directed spinoff produced by Thunder Road is expected to rank second behind Disney\u2019s third weekend of Lilo & Stitch, <\/strong>which is looking to make around $35M<\/strong>; that movie crosses $300M today.<\/p>\n

\n\tBallerina was delayed a year to undergo additional photography. <\/p>\n

\n\tUpside on Ballerina is that Thursday night fans are enjoying the Ana de Armas movie with a Keanu Reeves cameo, giving a 94% audience score on Rotten Tomatoes \u2014 as of this minute, that\u2019s higher than any John Wick RT popcorn score; John Wick: Chapter 4 received a 93% in 2023. Critically, even though Ballerina is 72% certified fresh on Rotten Tomatoes, it\u2019s not as high as the John Wick movies, which had film review scores ranging from 86%-94% certified fresh.<\/p>\n

\n\tBallerina\u2018s all-in preview cash is on par with the Thursday preview box office of Furiosa ($3.5M) and higher than the $2.4M Tuesday night preview cash of Alita: Battle Angel. Essentially, the thinking is to comp Ballerina to female solo action movies instead of John Wick movies. Female solo action movies are a completely different subgenre and don\u2019t always attract the full-on male audience that typically attends an action movie with a male leading star.<\/p>\n

\n\tStill, Ballerina\u2018s combined preview cash is higher than the Thursday night of 2017\u2019s John Wick 2 ($2.2M) but far under both 2019\u2019s John Wick: Chapter 3 \u2013 Parabellum ($5.9M, ) and 2023\u2019s John Wick: Chapter 4 ($8.9M, best preview cash in franchise).<\/p>\n

\n\tWe\u2019ll have more updates as they happen Friday morning. Lionsgate didn\u2019t return our request for comment.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"SATURDAY AM: Refresh for more and chart\u2026.One of the most intriguing yet mindboggling dynamics in moviegoing is that…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":165545,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3935],"tags":[67652,77,34147,3943,16,15],"class_list":{"0":"post-165544","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-movies","8":"tag-ballerina","9":"tag-entertainment","10":"tag-lionsgate","11":"tag-movies","12":"tag-uk","13":"tag-united-kingdom"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@uk\/114643320827710738","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/165544","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=165544"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/165544\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/165545"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=165544"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=165544"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=165544"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}