Trump 2.0 appears more willing than before to punish countries that he deems to have taken advantage of America by throwing his weight around with tariffs, threats to abandon friends and proposals to (checks notes) take over Greenland and Canada.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Europe is feeling the heat more acutely now than it did during Trump 1.0. Not only has the US president unleashed economic warfare on America\u2019s oldest allies; he\u2019s given the clearest indication since the end of the second world war that he would not come to our aid if a common adversary were to attack the continent.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Without the American commitment to protection, it\u2019s undeniable that the continent\u00a0 is now more vulnerable than at any other point in recent memory. That\u2019s partly our own fault for not capitalising on the peace dividend, along with underspending on security for decades. It\u2019s also partly because governments stuck their heads in the sand and denied the terrifying reality that countries like Russia, China, North Korea and Iran were bolstering their own militaries and geopolitical ambitions.\u00a0<\/p>\n
For Keir Starmer\u2019s government, the defence dilemma is often framed as Britain facing a binary question: a choice between partnership with the US or a new path with European neighbours, including the European Union.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n
While this is an overly simplistic view of the current state of play, it is becoming increasingly clear that Britain\u2019s future, at least in terms of security, must be rooted in Europe.\u00a0<\/p>\n
The time has come for the country to get over some of its post-Brexit hangups and reach an agreement with Brussels. It is critical that a decade from now, Europe must be independently able to protect itself. And it\u2019s in everyone\u2019s best interest that Britain plays a central role in achieving that aim.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Where we are<\/strong><\/p>\n The UK-EU summit, set to take place on May 19, is now a critical date in the calendar. It\u2019s worth noting that neither side wanted this meeting to become a spectacle.\u00a0<\/p>\n \u201cWe didn\u2019t want to create an artificial deadline, something that can be \u2018missed\u2019 and risk upending negotiations,\u201d says a senior British source. They said that neither side saw \u201cany point\u201d in creating a scenario where \u201cnecessary compromises on both sides\u201d could see a return to the bad old days of Brexit negotiations, where briefings emerged suggesting someone was winning or losing.\u00a0<\/p>\n Events, however, have somewhat overtaken what sources on both sides have been productive, if secretive, talks. Between Trump\u2019s tariffs and the ratcheting of rhetoric on defence spending, both London and Brussels now feel the pressure to have something to announce come May.\u00a0<\/p>\n The current prize up for grabs, at least as far as the British defence industry sees it, is for an agreement that allows British firms to compete for lucrative European contracts, as countries prepare to splash billions on new equipment.\u00a0<\/p>\n British firms are currently excluded from an EU instrument known as SAFE (Security Action for Europe), where the EU Commission will raise \u20ac150bn on capital markets and disburse the funds as loans to member states for defence and security spending.\u00a0<\/p>\n \u201cIt was very disappointing,\u201d says a defence industry source. \u201cWe want a formal pact that gives us market access, formal agreements and collaboration on research and development. And it is critical that we are acknowledged as firmly entrenched in the European supply chain.\u201d<\/p>\n Both London and Brussels privately admit that this is exactly what they want, too. \u201cWe explicitly want and need the UK on board,\u201d says a senior Commission source. \u201cWe want buying British to be seen as buying European. It just makes sense to have them in the supply chain.\u201d<\/p>\n So what\u2019s the problem?<\/strong><\/p>\n Keen Eurowatchers may remember that when the SAFE instrument was announced last month, some in the British media took leave of their senses and claimed that Brussels was holding us over a barrel. The implication was: no deal on defence unless we make concessions in other post-Brexit areas \u2013 notably on fishing rights.\u00a0<\/p>\n A government source told the Times: \u201cEurope needs Britain\u2019s defence industry a bit more than the French need a few extra fish\u2026 They have not grasped the enormity of the moment.\u201d<\/p>\n While the British government publicly kept a cool head at the time, these are exactly the sorts of flare-ups both sides hoped to avoid and why they wanted May\u2019s summit to be a low-key event.\u00a0<\/p>\n The unavoidable truth is that any security pact with the EU will have to co-exist with other parts of the so-called Brexit reset. That means, no matter how much Starmer and co might want to avoid talking about fish and youth mobility, they probably will need to find a fudge that will upset ardent Brexiteers.\u00a0<\/p>\n Even this week, the right wing website Guido Fawkes has labelled progress on the reset deal a \u201cmajor Brexit betrayal\u201d, and Lord Frost, architect of Boris Johnson\u2019s deeply flawed deal with the EU l, has accused Keir Starmer of not being able to negotiate (!). This is the start of a storm that must be ridden.<\/p>\n Does any of that matter, given the gravity of the situation?<\/strong><\/p>\n Opinion polls repeatedly tell us that Brits support a reset with the EU and support Britain bolstering its defences. If public opinion isn\u2019t enough to convince Starmer that he should plough ahead and make a European defence pact his priority, reality should be.\u00a0<\/p>\n The either-or question, Europe or America, is largely a moot point. Yes, we know that in the immediate term, the American backstop cannot be replaced by Europe. However, we also know that anti-European thinking in DC is not confined to Donald Trump, but exists in the wider US Conservative movement.\u00a0<\/p>\n The leaked texts where JD Vance and Pete Hegseth moaned about \u201cbailing Europe out\u201d and called us \u201cPATHETIC\u201d are the clearest indication we have that anti-Europeanism is here to stay. And while Trump himself might view Britain more favourably than the rest of Europe, there\u2019s no guarantee that whoever picks up the MAGA mantle will be as easily bought off with letters from the King.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n \u201cIdeally, we should continue working with our American allies, but the reality is that Washington is pursuing a more transactional relationship with all its allies, including the UK,\u201d says Tobias Elwood, former chair of the Parliamentary Defence Select Committee. \u201cThe big picture is that America is dialling back from Europe while Russia is dialling up. All at a time when global security is crumbling.\u00a0<\/p>\n \u201cWe must acknowledge this is the new age of insecurity. Europe is on its own, obliging us to bury whatever lingering political issues we may still have with Europe and focus on the common threat \u2013 Russia.\u201d<\/p>\n Getting practical<\/strong><\/p>\n The need for Britain to intensify its work with European defence partners isn\u2019t solely a story born of American psychodrama.\u00a0<\/p>\n When Trump says Europeans have dropped the ball on defence, he does have a point. The continent\u2019s woeful underfunding is well known. But the lack of seriousness has adversely affected both industry and policy, meaning that reversing the situation to a point where Europe can credibly defend itself will take more than simply throwing money at the problem.<\/p>\n The European ammunition supply chain is a good example of this. Shells made in some European countries, while meeting compatibility standards, don\u2019t always work in weapons made in other European countries without modification.\u00a0 A 2023 investigation by the Kyiv Independent revealed that such complications led to some Ukrainian counteroffensive operations being delayed, because troops needed to use grinders to trim Finnish mortar bombs so they would fit Italian weapons.\u00a0<\/p>\n This relatively small example highlights the challenge of fully integrating the supply chains across Europe\u2019s defence industry, but also how essential it is that governments understand the need to cooperate at an industrial level, but more importantly, at a political level.\u00a0<\/p>\n Politics is where a lot of this could ultimately become jammed up. Protectionism and nationalism have also held up Europe\u2019s ability to arm Ukraine since 2022, with disputes over exactly what weapons and aid should be sent.\u00a0<\/p>\n It\u2019s not hard to imagine how protectionism and domestic priorities might discourage the leadership of one European country buying from another, when, for example, jobs and national budgets are in play. These political issues will be hard to overcome, but when you look at the stark reality, there isn\u2019t an alternative.\u00a0<\/p>\n That is true for all European nations, including Britain. \u201cIn the long run, it will prove difficult to bypass the EU entirely, especially if more ambitious common borrowing proposals are proposed down the road,\u201d says Anand Sundar from the European Council on Foreign Relations.\u00a0<\/p>\n He notes that it would be in the UK\u2019s interest to make a pact with Europe now, while the EU funds are still being finalised, because right now it is \u201cset to exclude all third countries unless they have a security pact with Brussels (which includes the likes of Norway, Japan, and South Korea at the moment, but, crucially, not the UK). Getting to a pact as soon as possible would allow the UK to participate in the fund.\u201d<\/p>\n The May summit is drawing closer and, given the situation we find ourselves in, it looks set to be a significant moment in Britain\u2019s post-Brexit history. Starmer and his colleagues might be wise to look at the long-term realities of American chaos and the real threats we face, rather than upsetting a vanishingly small part of the public obsessed with fish and young Europeans popping across the channel.\u00a0<\/p>\n As we\u2019ve discussed, politics can become a graveyard of progress. But the boring Brexit arguments of the past are simply not as important as the risk and instability of the future.\u00a0<\/p>\n So, to paraphrase the government source quoted above, perhaps it\u2019s time certain people in Britain grew up and grasped the enormity of the moment.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Trump 2.0 appears more willing than before to punish countries that he deems to have taken advantage of…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":17602,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5226],"tags":[802,748,2993,2000,299,5187,1699,4884,16,15],"class_list":{"0":"post-17601","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-brexit","8":"tag-brexit","9":"tag-britain","10":"tag-defence","11":"tag-eu","12":"tag-europe","13":"tag-european","14":"tag-european-union","15":"tag-great-britain","16":"tag-uk","17":"tag-united-kingdom"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@uk\/114332931637543503","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17601","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=17601"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17601\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/17602"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=17601"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=17601"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/uk\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=17601"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}