An artist\u2019s illustration of 2024 YR4<\/p>\n
W. M. Keck Observatory\/Adam Makarenko<\/p>\n
Asteroid 2024 YR4, until recently thought to have a chance of striking Earth on December 22, 2032, could now be headed for the moon instead, according to new data.<\/p>\n
After new observations, 2024 YR4 is thought to have a diameter of about 98\u2013213 feet (30\u201365 meters). The James Webb Space Telescope studied it<\/a> in March and found it to be about 197 feet (60 meters). That\u2019s about the same width as a football field.<\/p>\n Chance Of Lunar Impact<\/strong><\/p>\n The stony asteroid \u2014 first discovered on December 27, 2024, when it was passing just 1.5 million miles (2.5 million kilometers) \u2014 is one of the largest objects in recent history that could impact the moon, according to a paper<\/a> accepted for publication in The Astrophysical Journal Letters.<\/p>\n A lunar impact would be a book for scientists, who know little about the relationship between the size of an asteroid and the size of its resulting impact crater \u2014 despite the moon being covered in craters. \u201cIf it does, it will give scientists a rare chance to study how the size of an asteroid relates to the size of the crater it creates \u2014 something we haven\u2019t been able to measure directly before,” said<\/a> Bryce Bolin, the lead author. For now, there\u2019s a roughly 2% chance YR4 could collide with the moon.<\/p>\n An artist\u2019s illustration of 2024 YR4 in relation to Earth.<\/p>\n W. M. Keck Observatory\/Adam Makarenko Data from the Gemini South Observatory in Chile and the Keck Observatory in Arizona revealed that the asteroid rapidly rotates backward and may be shaped like a hockey puck. \u201cThis find was rather unexpected since most asteroids are thought to be shaped like potatoes or toy tops rather than flat disks,\u201d said<\/a> Bolin. \u201c2024 YR4 is a solid rock, likely chipped off from a larger rubble-pile asteroid in the central Main Belt between Mars and Jupiter.”<\/p>\n That 2024 YR4 appears to come from the main asteroid belt is a surprise. \u201cThis region was not previously known to produce asteroids on Earth-crossing paths,\u201d said Bolin. It’s thought that gravitational interactions with Jupiter have forced it into the vicinity of Earth.<\/p>\n This composite image of asteroid 2024 YR4 was captured with the Gemini South telescope in Chile. <\/p>\n International Gemini Observatory\/NOIRLab\/NSF\/AURA\/M. Zamani<\/p>\n Rare Chance To Study An \u2018Earth Crosser\u2019<\/strong><\/p>\n 2024 YR4 came to prominence in late January 2025 when the International Asteroid Warning Network placed the asteroid on its watch list after calculations of its orbit suggested it had over a 1% probability of hitting Earth in 2032.<\/p>\n
\nShaped Like A Hockey Puck<\/strong><\/p>\n