– Macron articulated this \u2018third way\u2019 to find a ‘mutual arrangement where Europeans and Southeast Asians strengthen their own strategic autonomy,’ researcher Jean-Loup Samaan tells Anadolu<\/p>\n
– France\u2019s Indo-Pacific bid was ‘well received,’ but ‘expectations are now high \u2026 despite the reality of limited capabilities,’ says Celine Pajon of the French Institute of International Relations<\/p>\n
ISTANBUL<\/strong><\/p>\n French President Emmanuel Macron has wrapped up a week-long visit to Southeast Asia, promoting what he calls a \u201cthird way\u201d to help countries avoid being drawn into the growing rivalry between the US and China.<\/p>\n Macron\u2019s tour took him to Vietnam, Indonesia and Singapore between May 25 and 31, part of a push to position France \u2014 and by extension, Europe \u2014 as a viable partner for nations navigating the tensions of a shifting global order.<\/p>\n At the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, a key annual security forum, Macron portrayed France as both an Indo-Pacific actor and a diplomatic counterweight in the region. He urged like-minded countries to deepen cooperation and uphold a \u201crules-based\u201d international order.<\/p>\n \u201cThe time for non-alignment has undoubtfully passed but the time for coalitions of action has come and require that countries capable of acting together give themselves every means to do so,\u201d Macron said in his keynote speech.<\/p>\n Analysts say Macron\u2019s \u201cthird way\u201d is more than a rhetorical device. According to political scientists who spoke to Anadolu, the French leader is pushing a broader strategy of \u201cstrategic autonomy\u201d \u2014 both for France and for its potential partners in Southeast Asia.<\/p>\n \u201cThe way he articulated this \u2018third way\u2019 at the Shangri-La was to find a mutual arrangement where Europeans and Southeast Asians strengthen their own strategic autonomy,\u201d said Jean-Loup Samaan, a research fellow at the Middle East Institute of the National University of Singapore.<\/p>\n He argued that the French approach is one of \u201cmutual benefit\u201d in which France would avoid pressuring local partners or forcing them to pick sides.<\/p>\n \u201cHe advocates for strategic autonomy for both France and Europe, aiming to reduce vulnerabilities linked to overdependence in economic, energy, and security domains \u2014 whether from the United States, China, or Russia,\u201d said Celine Pajon, head of Japan and Indo-Pacific research at the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI).<\/p>\n According to Pajon, Macron\u2019s pitch is consistent with his foreign policy since 2017 and echoes the Cold War-era independence promoted by former French leader Charles de Gaulle.<\/p>\n \u201cIn this context, he promotes a policy of de-risking and hedging vis-a-vis revisionist powers, while maintaining a solid alliance with the United States,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n But Pajon was quick to underline that France\u2019s interests in the Indo-Pacific are not just body_abstract or ideological. Instead, the \u201cprimary\u201d objective, she said, is to protect Paris\u2019 \u201csovereign interests\u201d in a region marked by geostrategic tensions.<\/p>\n France has multiple overseas territories across the Indian and Pacific Oceans \u2014 an often-overlooked fact that Paris uses to frame itself as a \u201cresident\u201d power in the region.<\/p>\n \u201cThere\u2019s a territorial element to the French policy, as Macron and all the previous French presidents said France is a resident state of the Indo-Pacific,\u201d said Samaan. \u201cIn terms of sovereignty, France considers itself to be a part of the legitimate players here.\u201d<\/p>\n For Macron, experts say, the Indo-Pacific is not just about strategic balance \u2014 but about shaping a new regional architecture that includes players beyond Washington and Beijing.<\/p>\n \u201cThe idea is that if you have middle powers, third parties like France, it changes the nature of the game in the sense that it\u2019s not just about US-China competition. It\u2019s also about middle and local powers charting their own trajectory,\u201d Samaan said.<\/p>\n Economic stakes<\/strong><\/p>\n While Macron\u2019s security message had the spotlight at Shangri-La, both Pajon and Samaan emphasized the economic underpinnings of France\u2019s Indo-Pacific strategy.<\/p>\n \u201cThere\u2019s the trade dimension, and in particular when it comes to arm sales, we see France being a major, or at least an active player in Southeast Asia, in Indonesia, in Vietnam, in Singapore,\u201d Samaan said.<\/p>\n He noted that Macron\u2019s outreach should not be viewed as \u201crevolutionary,\u201d but rather as a layered approach that combines trade, security, and diplomacy.<\/p>\n \u201cEngaging with Southeast Asian countries is a key part of France\u2019s strategy to hedge against global uncertainties,\u201d Pajon said. \u201cThese countries are experiencing high economic growth and hold rich reserves of critical natural resources.\u201d<\/p>\n France, she explained, is looking to diversify its trade and investment relationships while also strengthening economic security and building resilient value chains.<\/p>\n Pajon also pointed to Southeast Asia\u2019s rising defense budgets, calling it a \u201cpromising market\u201d for French arms exports.<\/p>\n Supporting local military development, she said, fits with France\u2019s vision of \u201cpartnerships of sovereignty\u201d that increase regional autonomy and resilience against \u201chegemonic pressures.\u201d<\/p>\n Not pivot, but evolution<\/strong><\/p>\n Some observers have speculated that France\u2019s stepped-up engagement in Asia reflects a strategic pivot away from Africa, where it has lost ground in recent years. But Samaan dismissed any direct link between the two trends.<\/p>\n \u201cI think there\u2019s actually a lot of continuity between what Macron says and what most of the French foreign policy establishment thought about France\u2019s global ambitions over the past decades,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n Nearly all modern French presidents have described the country as a resident power in the Indo-Pacific, he added. Macron\u2019s current strategy, then, is less of a shift and more of an update.<\/p>\n \u201cI wouldn\u2019t say it\u2019s a shift towards the Indo-Pacific. It\u2019s, in a way, an update on those ambitions,\u201d Samaan said.<\/p>\n Pajon agreed, pointing out that France was the first European country to adopt an Indo-Pacific strategy in 2019 and helped push the EU to do the same.<\/p>\n \u201cThis early engagement stems from France\u2019s unique status as a resident power in the Indo-Pacific,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n What\u2019s next for France\u2019s \u2018third way\u2019 in the Indo-Pacific?<\/strong><\/p>\n Macron\u2019s message of \u201cstrategic autonomy\u201d has found a receptive audience in Southeast Asia, analysts say \u2014 at least in principle.<\/p>\n \u201cSoutheast Asian diplomats or observers are interested in the rhetoric of Macron, but they remain cautious about the delivery,\u201d said Samaan. \u201cThey look at European capabilities and they wonder what could France, or more broadly, Europe, bring to the table, and how much of that is going to make a difference if there\u2019s a security crisis in the region.\u201d<\/p>\n For France\u2019s proposal to gain traction, he added, it will likely need to go beyond bilateral efforts.<\/p>\n \u201cI personally think that the French position in terms of action will be credible if Paris is able, to Europeanize its policy,\u201d Samaan said. \u201cIt\u2019s only at the EU level that the idea of a third way could truly make a difference.\u201d<\/p>\n Pajon also expects France to update its Indo-Pacific strategy soon to reinforce its commitment.<\/p>\n \u201cFrance neither has the capacity nor the ambition to rival the United States in the region,\u201d she said, but it aims to expand options in cooperation between European and Asian partners.<\/p>\n She noted that diplomats of countries in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) broadly welcomed Macron\u2019s message, as it echoes the regional bloc\u2019s own tradition of strategic non-alignment.<\/p>\n \u201cExpectations are now high for France and Europe to deliver more substantively on their promises \u2014 despite the reality of limited capabilities,\u201d Pajon said.<\/p>\n